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Three really nice days in a row and if the Cubs could have played a little better on defense yesterday would have been 3 great days in a row. I've climbed back from down nearly 20 units for the month in the last few days.
NYY/Baltimore
I'm leaning toward NY in this one. I like Britton but Colon has been rock solid as well. If Colon pitches well it will be interesting to see what NY does with the bullpen because Joba won't be available (I don't think) and Soriano is DL'd so it is basically Robertson and Mo if NY is ahead. For anyone that doesn't know NY absolutely beats Baltimore silly for the last 7-9 years. They have won 17 of the last 20 and while I don't have the numbers available over the last 7 or 8 years they are winning something absurd like 80+% of the games in vs Baltimore regardless of home or road. Something like a 41-7 run in Baltimore. Baltimore during the same stretch plays Boston very hard and is actually even with them since the beginning of last year. Britton is real popular right now but other than a great outing against Texas his other good performances aren't that special. 3 runs is a nice outing but it isn't unbeatable and his starts with less than 3 runs allowed have come against Seattle and both Sox's. Not exactly offensive juggernauts at this point, especially against LHP. I will start my NY RL bets through the weekend by fading Guthrie tomorrow since Britton got postponed so do those bets. Next Monday NY will likely be on a 6 game winning streak to balance out their 6 game stumble last week. No play for me tonight though, better games on tap.
Toronto -105 3 Units
Litsch has been pretty solid through a pretty rough stretch of games. It doesn't get a lot easier but I would classify this as a better spot. With a rock solid bullpen I like the Jays in a spot where they should be able to get to Hellickson. He threw 120 pitches last outing and could have some fatigue plus he will be stressed by the Jays on the bases since they run so much and TB does a horrible job of containing the running game, especially Jaso who will likely be catching tonight. Plus their is a pretty decent public backing for the first place Rays tonight.
Col/Philly over 7 -115 3 Units
Both pitchers are susceptible to big outings, I think it's more likely that Hamels gives up 4+ but I'll take the over instead of the Rockies who I think will outslug them tonight. I'm not a Hamels believer for what it's worth.
Cubs/Florida
I would love the under at 8 and am considering it at 7'. I think both pitchers do well with a slight lean to the Marlins because of the legit offensive players they have.
Nats/Mets Under 7' -115 3 Units
Both offenses are weak, both are missing several players and both starters are very capable of 5-6 innings and with fully rested bullpens I think both teams struggle to score. Each team really only has 1-2 players capable of generating more than 1 run in an inning so they would need to score in a lot of innings to his this total.
KC +110 2 Units
I feel like KC's bullpen should be shot, except the guys that pitch tonight if they are close or ahead aren't overworked and I have felt all season that Ogando is due to have a poor outing since his arm should come up short one of these games. That being said I think Texas is supremely more talented than KC at every position except first base and closer. My gut just tells me Texas is too easy tonight.
Cleveland +115 2 Units
I don't care this is the public play of the day. Peavy is so overrated and the Sox aren't hitting. Masterson is very strong vs RHB and should be able to mow down this lineup if he has some command. His last outing wasn't nearly as bad as the line score since an excuse me swing double that hit the chalk the opposite way with the bases loaded was his undoing. I'll take the confident Indians with what I feel is the better pitcher, lineup and more consistent bullpen at plus odds.
Houston First 5 +150 3 Units
Bud Norris - St Louis's kryptonite. Bud Norris 4-0 at St Louis with 5 ER in 26 IP. If it's Bud Norris and the Cards, I'm going with Bud. And staying away from the Houston pen.
What is it with all these 6 and 6' totals? Those are garbage to play the under on even if you like the 2-1 game. With these bullpens on the west coast (Seattle, Dodgers) they can put the total in jeopardy by themselves.
glta
NYY/Baltimore
I'm leaning toward NY in this one. I like Britton but Colon has been rock solid as well. If Colon pitches well it will be interesting to see what NY does with the bullpen because Joba won't be available (I don't think) and Soriano is DL'd so it is basically Robertson and Mo if NY is ahead. For anyone that doesn't know NY absolutely beats Baltimore silly for the last 7-9 years. They have won 17 of the last 20 and while I don't have the numbers available over the last 7 or 8 years they are winning something absurd like 80+% of the games in vs Baltimore regardless of home or road. Something like a 41-7 run in Baltimore. Baltimore during the same stretch plays Boston very hard and is actually even with them since the beginning of last year. Britton is real popular right now but other than a great outing against Texas his other good performances aren't that special. 3 runs is a nice outing but it isn't unbeatable and his starts with less than 3 runs allowed have come against Seattle and both Sox's. Not exactly offensive juggernauts at this point, especially against LHP. I will start my NY RL bets through the weekend by fading Guthrie tomorrow since Britton got postponed so do those bets. Next Monday NY will likely be on a 6 game winning streak to balance out their 6 game stumble last week. No play for me tonight though, better games on tap.
Toronto -105 3 Units
Litsch has been pretty solid through a pretty rough stretch of games. It doesn't get a lot easier but I would classify this as a better spot. With a rock solid bullpen I like the Jays in a spot where they should be able to get to Hellickson. He threw 120 pitches last outing and could have some fatigue plus he will be stressed by the Jays on the bases since they run so much and TB does a horrible job of containing the running game, especially Jaso who will likely be catching tonight. Plus their is a pretty decent public backing for the first place Rays tonight.
Col/Philly over 7 -115 3 Units
Both pitchers are susceptible to big outings, I think it's more likely that Hamels gives up 4+ but I'll take the over instead of the Rockies who I think will outslug them tonight. I'm not a Hamels believer for what it's worth.
Cubs/Florida
I would love the under at 8 and am considering it at 7'. I think both pitchers do well with a slight lean to the Marlins because of the legit offensive players they have.
Nats/Mets Under 7' -115 3 Units
Both offenses are weak, both are missing several players and both starters are very capable of 5-6 innings and with fully rested bullpens I think both teams struggle to score. Each team really only has 1-2 players capable of generating more than 1 run in an inning so they would need to score in a lot of innings to his this total.
KC +110 2 Units
I feel like KC's bullpen should be shot, except the guys that pitch tonight if they are close or ahead aren't overworked and I have felt all season that Ogando is due to have a poor outing since his arm should come up short one of these games. That being said I think Texas is supremely more talented than KC at every position except first base and closer. My gut just tells me Texas is too easy tonight.
Cleveland +115 2 Units
I don't care this is the public play of the day. Peavy is so overrated and the Sox aren't hitting. Masterson is very strong vs RHB and should be able to mow down this lineup if he has some command. His last outing wasn't nearly as bad as the line score since an excuse me swing double that hit the chalk the opposite way with the bases loaded was his undoing. I'll take the confident Indians with what I feel is the better pitcher, lineup and more consistent bullpen at plus odds.
Houston First 5 +150 3 Units
Bud Norris - St Louis's kryptonite. Bud Norris 4-0 at St Louis with 5 ER in 26 IP. If it's Bud Norris and the Cards, I'm going with Bud. And staying away from the Houston pen.
What is it with all these 6 and 6' totals? Those are garbage to play the under on even if you like the 2-1 game. With these bullpens on the west coast (Seattle, Dodgers) they can put the total in jeopardy by themselves.
glta