Saturday

[Franchise]

Let's see how the day starts

Sea/Cle Under 4' First 5 -110 3 Units

I expect both starters to pitch well but I don't want any business with the seattle pen. I considered Seattle on the ML but there is a real lack of a margin for error in this team scoring runs. Bedard hs been mostly great (and improving) and he should be able to get through 5 solid. Both pitchers are heavy GB guys now and while you can give up a big inning like Masterson did the other day it generally takes several hits to do so. If I get beat by bloops and broken bat singles then it is what it is.

Florida -125 3 Units

Their offense is getting better with Morrison and Washington's bullpen is spent. They have been extended several times in the last 4-5 days and unless they pull a Boston and DL 2-3 guys tonight they will likely be using very tired RP's behind Livan who isn't lights out against the Marlins. They hit him well, Wash doesn't hit Anibal. Washington is an improving ballclub but they didn't need another extra inning game after an early out by their starter.

Atlanta -160 3 units

The Braves are the better team and should be awfully motivated after last night's kick in the sack by the umpire. Their better bullpen arms are ready to go while the Phils used the whole thing last night.

Interesting note in the Pads game is that Harang has been interesting. Yes, he has been very good in all but one of his starts and that was also the only start he faced a decent hitting team, especially one vs RHP. But with Helton and Cargo getting going is Colorado a good hitting team vs RHP? Their numbers say not but their track records say yes.

A lot of afternoon games and I will get to those later.

glta

[Stifler's Mom]

I was looking under on Seattle/Cleveland too and after reading your post decided to go first 5 also. I'm guessing if either starter or both give up a pile, the pens aren't gonna come in and pitch lights out for either team and hold a 5-1 or 4-2 type score there for 4 full innings anyway.

I like the analysis too, btw. I wish I had more time to do write ups or add to discussions myself and I do when I can but I just don't have the time like I used to

[Franchise]

Tor/Minn Under 8 2 Units
Tampa -165 3 units

Some points yesterday about the Rays not losing starts by their best pitchers and Bergesen sucks. I don't have time for the details on that now. Agree with stiff, O's have been overrated all season thanks to the early wins.

KC/Det over 9 3 units

Brad Penny's pitching and has been hot, I believe in regression to true abilities and for Penny that is about a 5 era in the AL. That means some big negative outings are coming. Francis is an NL pitcher and both clubs are swinging pretty decent bats with the exception of against Verlander last night.

LAA/Tex over 8 even 4 Units

I don't have any idea why this line is falling. I don't care.

Stl/Cincy over 9 even 3 Units

Both of these pitchers are due to get bombed, Mcclellan because he doesn't K anyone and cueto had brutal command in the minors on his rehab. I think the last start is a mirage and wouldn't be surprised to see either team score 9 on their own.

glta

[Franchise]

Stiff, thanks. I understand on the analysis and I have had a little more time lately so I try to get a little on each game. It helps me clear my thoughts from day to day and I reread my nonsense to make sure that my reasoning for a play makes sense. It has helped take some losers off the board when I realized I was just trying to force things on a game. It was great to see your writeups yesterday even if they don't come often it lends a little insight into how you see some of the teams and things I might have missed. Keep up the good work.

[Franchise]

tonight

NYY -130 3 Units

Boston isn't sweeping this series and CC has a much better track record vs Boston than Beckett vs NYY. NYY is not hitting the ball well but Beckett may be just what they need to break out. They have absolutely dominated him over the last 2-3 years with the exception of the early season start. I am also not a believer in Beckett having even a 3 something era at the end of the year. No reason the regression to his track record can't start now. Somewhat of a guy play because the numbers of late really point to a Sox win but I just don't feel it. In the interest of full disclosure for anyone that doesn't know I am a NYY fan but I do not play their games all the time.

Also considering the Cubs over and the Dodgers under if I can get a decent price at 7.

glta