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also probably going to play oakland and lad/arizona over, but hoping the lines get driven in my favor till tonight
i'm looking for a return to normalcy for verlander (as in giving up a few runs, lol), against a kc club who is scoring at a pretty decent clip. kc pen #10, det dead last at #30. so many games are won/lost late, and even though hochevar is a wild card, i'll take a stab at +172. same thinking for the over. also don't mind the letdown spot for detroit coming home after a very successful road trip.
tb in the same spot, but won't overlook a team who swept them at home early on in the season, imo. baltimore's hot start was a most likely a farce, and it's starting to show. mismatches everywhere in this game, including the #4 tb pen over the #27 baltimore pen, who in the event baltimore does hold a lead in a close game late, will likely succeed in coughing it up more often than not.
cleveland is another team who started like a house on fire and now is falling back to earth where they belong. this is a ridiculous number to fade a cold team who has probably drastically over performed. seattle isn't special, but this line is high enough that i'll take a shot.
i continue to look to go against the phillies when the situation presents itself against a quality opponent or when the line is super inflated against a decent but not great team like the nats, as they seem to be more over rated than the yankees this year by the oddsmakers, if that's possible. most of the world on them tonight, yet the line is a pick em at -105 each way? tells me this is probably a good spot to take the braves.
why does milwaukee keep drawing lines like this? they are 16-19 and their offense has stank for the most part so far, which is supposed to be their thing, isn't it? they are a go against as far as i'm concerned when the line is like this due to what pretty much amount to public perception that "pittsburgh sucks". not that is has a single thing to do with my decision to play this game, but the pirates actually have a better record that milwaukee so far this year, for whatever that's worth, lol
the twins just stink this year. and they stink bad. the guys at the bottom of their line up are downright putrid. pavano probably isn't going to dominate and the twins pen is a mess too. ranked 26th out of 30 in the league. big advantage jays here in just about every way the way i see it. i'll lay the small chalk.
colorado is another team not doing much right now but drawing big chalk due to a hot start and prior success. sd always has good pitching, highlighted by the #1 ranked pen in mlb. moseley has also seemingly pitched well despite the 1-4 record. so i'm getting +160 with the pitching advantage against a team not doing a ton of winning or displaying a **** load of confidence right now? i'll jump on that.
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