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Well pretty much every under I lose has atleast 1 team go over the total, let's stop that bleeding today.
SF/Cubs Under 7 even 3 Units
I'm waiting to see the number but I am leaning very strongly this way. Both pitchers seem to be finding their form and their season long numbers don't reflect on their ability. They both miss enough bats and as shown by their decreasing BB/9 and increasing IP per start they have improved their results with improved command along the lines of what you would expect out of each starter. The Cubs already thin lineup will be without Soto and Ramirez leaving the Cubs with really 1 guy that should be hitting in the top half of a big league lineup. With the P, C, and 2 of Pena, Fukodome and Dewitt in the lineup their are some big holes vs good LHP. As long as Jeff Baker and Castro don't beat them the Giants should be able to hold down the Cubs. The Cubs are also a pretty free swinging club and if Madison can get into the 7th that will really help the bullpen. Dempster on the other hand is facing a really struggling lineup. Since Sandoval went down they have really trended under since they have had no protection for Buster Posey. And in a low scoring game the Cubs have Marshall, Wood and Marmol all rested and Quade has shown he will go to them even if they are down 1-2 in a tight game. I lean to the Cubs but they have been so putrid at home and without Aramis in the lineup I don't know how they will score.
Florida/Wash over 8 -115 3 Units
Both teams have had underrated offensive output and Florida will be getting a boost from Logan Morrison tonight. With his return to the lineup the Fish have several legitimate hitters in their lineup (Coghlan, Ramirez, Stanton, Morrison and Sanchez). They should be able to score runs off Gorzellany who won't overpower them and isn't as good as his current numbers. Plus this is a back to back start vs Florida which will give the Marlins a very recent look at him so I like their chances of making adjustments. Volstad on the other hand has been pretty mediocre on the road and has faced Washington a lot (5 times since August 10) and his 3rd turn of the year this year vs them. With all of the success Washington has had vs him I expect they will be able to knock him around. Their offense has scraped together runs and pressured defenses with lesser named players. I like a competitive game where both teams each score atleast 4 runs with one of them getting to 6. Hopefully the rain isn't too much of an issue as it is expected in the area for a good portion of the night.
KC/Det over 7' 3 Units
Both teams are hitting the ball well now, especially the Tigers. KC is very aggressive on the basepaths to help them generate runs and they have several good fastball hitters in their lineup. Although they were shutdown by Burnett on Tuesday I think that is good preparation for Verlander since they have somewhat similar pitches with Verlander throwing just a bit harder. I think the total is a little better price due to Verlander's no hitter but he gave up atleast 3 runs in all but 1 other start so I like the chances for both teams to get in the scoring column early.
Toronto -115 2 Units
I really like Romero and the comforting sight of the Twins lineup will be a help. He struggled with his command terribly on Sunday and usually bounces back well from poor outings. He is now back on regular rest and he seems to do better on that schedule. Pavano on the other hand has been a mess this season and doesn't have the same velocity of the pitchers that have given the Jays problems. I don't see Minny scoring more than 2-3 runs and the Jays should be able to do that much damage against Pavano. With a weaker D and O this season he just isn't as effective. Pavano doesn't hold runners well and that will also be a problem since the Jays are running wild this season. Look for the Jays to steal 4-5 bases and pressure the mediocre D with their speed all series.
Other considerations
Tampa - I really expect them to win this game easily, their offense has been better and their pitching has been more consistent. In the last month they have lost only 3 games that Hellickson, Price, Davis or Shields has started (none from Davis or Shields). Baltimore has been struggling to score more than 3 runs for a nice stretch and although they beat up on TB early this is a different team. I like the division leaders to continue with a nice weekend but I don't love the price.
Atlanta - I'm considering Atlanta or the under although the total is priced pretty tight. I don't think Philly will do any damage as Beachy has plenty of weapons to abuse this overrated offense. Hamels has been solid but I don't think he can keep it up. He has stretches of nice pitching before he usually falls off the wagon for a few weeks but Atlanta has been really inconsistent with their offense and not nearly as good as I thought they would be.
glta
SF/Cubs Under 7 even 3 Units
I'm waiting to see the number but I am leaning very strongly this way. Both pitchers seem to be finding their form and their season long numbers don't reflect on their ability. They both miss enough bats and as shown by their decreasing BB/9 and increasing IP per start they have improved their results with improved command along the lines of what you would expect out of each starter. The Cubs already thin lineup will be without Soto and Ramirez leaving the Cubs with really 1 guy that should be hitting in the top half of a big league lineup. With the P, C, and 2 of Pena, Fukodome and Dewitt in the lineup their are some big holes vs good LHP. As long as Jeff Baker and Castro don't beat them the Giants should be able to hold down the Cubs. The Cubs are also a pretty free swinging club and if Madison can get into the 7th that will really help the bullpen. Dempster on the other hand is facing a really struggling lineup. Since Sandoval went down they have really trended under since they have had no protection for Buster Posey. And in a low scoring game the Cubs have Marshall, Wood and Marmol all rested and Quade has shown he will go to them even if they are down 1-2 in a tight game. I lean to the Cubs but they have been so putrid at home and without Aramis in the lineup I don't know how they will score.
Florida/Wash over 8 -115 3 Units
Both teams have had underrated offensive output and Florida will be getting a boost from Logan Morrison tonight. With his return to the lineup the Fish have several legitimate hitters in their lineup (Coghlan, Ramirez, Stanton, Morrison and Sanchez). They should be able to score runs off Gorzellany who won't overpower them and isn't as good as his current numbers. Plus this is a back to back start vs Florida which will give the Marlins a very recent look at him so I like their chances of making adjustments. Volstad on the other hand has been pretty mediocre on the road and has faced Washington a lot (5 times since August 10) and his 3rd turn of the year this year vs them. With all of the success Washington has had vs him I expect they will be able to knock him around. Their offense has scraped together runs and pressured defenses with lesser named players. I like a competitive game where both teams each score atleast 4 runs with one of them getting to 6. Hopefully the rain isn't too much of an issue as it is expected in the area for a good portion of the night.
KC/Det over 7' 3 Units
Both teams are hitting the ball well now, especially the Tigers. KC is very aggressive on the basepaths to help them generate runs and they have several good fastball hitters in their lineup. Although they were shutdown by Burnett on Tuesday I think that is good preparation for Verlander since they have somewhat similar pitches with Verlander throwing just a bit harder. I think the total is a little better price due to Verlander's no hitter but he gave up atleast 3 runs in all but 1 other start so I like the chances for both teams to get in the scoring column early.
Toronto -115 2 Units
I really like Romero and the comforting sight of the Twins lineup will be a help. He struggled with his command terribly on Sunday and usually bounces back well from poor outings. He is now back on regular rest and he seems to do better on that schedule. Pavano on the other hand has been a mess this season and doesn't have the same velocity of the pitchers that have given the Jays problems. I don't see Minny scoring more than 2-3 runs and the Jays should be able to do that much damage against Pavano. With a weaker D and O this season he just isn't as effective. Pavano doesn't hold runners well and that will also be a problem since the Jays are running wild this season. Look for the Jays to steal 4-5 bases and pressure the mediocre D with their speed all series.
Other considerations
Tampa - I really expect them to win this game easily, their offense has been better and their pitching has been more consistent. In the last month they have lost only 3 games that Hellickson, Price, Davis or Shields has started (none from Davis or Shields). Baltimore has been struggling to score more than 3 runs for a nice stretch and although they beat up on TB early this is a different team. I like the division leaders to continue with a nice weekend but I don't love the price.
Atlanta - I'm considering Atlanta or the under although the total is priced pretty tight. I don't think Philly will do any damage as Beachy has plenty of weapons to abuse this overrated offense. Hamels has been solid but I don't think he can keep it up. He has stretches of nice pitching before he usually falls off the wagon for a few weeks but Atlanta has been really inconsistent with their offense and not nearly as good as I thought they would be.
glta
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