MLB Saturday 5/5

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  • Stifler's Mom
    Moderator
    • Feb 2007
    • 8541

    MLB Saturday 5/5

    ytd 119-132 (-19.91 units)

    Decided I would count that bull**** Flubs play against the Pirates as a loss, since the book graded it as such, even though they were leading at the time of the game being called and they ended up winning the game after it was restarted. Makes a difference of 5 units in my record, and more importantly my account balance....such bull****.

    Anyhow, so far for Saturday....

    KC Royals +120
    Colorado Rockies +124
    LA Dodgers +155
    Boston Red Sux +190
    Texas Rangers +148
    Arizona Diamondbacks -135

    2 units each


    I also decided to try something that is probably stupid. I have decided that I am going to try and double up 5 or 6 times in a row, starting with a $25 wager and trying to take it to $500 or more....it all depends on the odds of the game and how many times i risk doubling up. I am also not going to play a game every day, but rather wait for something I really like. Trying to force plays to double up every day will no doubt result in the streak ending rather prematurely.

    Anyway, last night I played Baltimore -122 for $25 to win $20.49 (my POD contest play from here) to get things started, and it won, so my balance is now $45.49. I am considering risking the $45.49 on the Rockets ML tonight, but at about -250, the payout of somewhere in the neighborhood of $18.20 doesn't seem worth the risk.

    This is just something I've seen people here do before, and thought it would be fun to try. I'd be happy with anything over $500, which i figure if i play all faves, will take a minimum of 5 wins (risking 25 and doubling up with each win @ +100 odds would get you $800), and maybe 6 if some of the plays are larger faves, like Houston tonight. That's not asking a whole hell of alot really to hit 5 or 6 straight plays if you're being selective, and the risk of $25 is well worth the payout of $500+
  • JohnnyMapleLeaf
    Banned
    • Feb 2007
    • 8456

    #2
    Big time opposites on KC and Tejas....thinking about adding that Red Sox play though...GL!

    Comment

    • Stifler's Mom
      Moderator
      • Feb 2007
      • 8541

      #3
      Originally posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf
      Big time opposites on KC and Tejas....thinking about adding that Red Sox play though...GL!
      Well no surprise there, lol. I know you always back the Jays when Doc pitches, and for good reason, and I also know you don't like Odalis Perez.

      Padilla pitched great last time vs TOR and Doc though. Just the one inning with the 2 home runs killed him, or they might have been able to pull that one out. Now with the game being at TEX, I feel +148 is tremendous value with what could turn out to be a very close game and go either way. SP is the only advantage I really give to the Jays here, and thats not by a huge margin, because Padilla has been pretty darn good....although Doc is an edge over anyone really, so still, it's an definitely an edge. Everything else is either in the favor of TEX or even from how I look at things, so I gotta try that one.

      As far as KC, it appears to me that the books are flat out begging for Detroit money today, opening the line at a mere -130 for Detroit, a team who the entire world thinks is great, playing against KC, a team the entire world thinks sucks. I mean who isn't on them? Who isn't willing to lay a measly -130 to get Detroit against KC? In reality Odalis has pitched pretty decent though after stinking it up for a start or two, and who is Mike Maroth? I mean he's ok, but really, he can certainly be hit....and KC has been getting alot of hits, and putting up a fair amount of runs at home, although their clutch hitting with men on base could certainly stand to improve some. KC's bullpen isn't spectacular by any means, but it's improved from last year, and IMO Detroit's has fallen off a notch. They were lucky they had a 6 run lead last night instead of a 2 or 3 run led, or they would have lost that game. Anyway, I think KC has a real good shot at taking this one.

      Comment

      • Stifler's Mom
        Moderator
        • Feb 2007
        • 8541

        #4
        SF Giants -110

        2 units


        Phils have been bad against LHP, Lowry tough at home....

        Comment

        • rjp
          Gimme the points, please
          • Mar 2007
          • 952

          #5
          Stif, true odds for Houston tonight is -276 or so. Very small value with -260.

          Comment

          • JohnnyMapleLeaf
            Banned
            • Feb 2007
            • 8456

            #6
            Originally posted by Stifler's Mom
            Well no surprise there, lol. I know you always back the Jays when Doc pitches, and for good reason, and I also know you don't like Odalis Perez.
            LOL...yeah, two standard plays.
            Great points stif...always like your reasoning.

            With Doc, I don't think he gets Cy Young type lines, so I always seem to see value in his starts. Maybe it is because I watch every game he pitches, but he really seems to be unhittable this year when he is on, and I watched when he faced Texas last start...and they were really baffled...probably the most I've seen against him all year...8 strikeouts (which is a lot for him), and 16 ground ball outs. It looked like infield practice with a 3rd base coach at the plate. LOL.

            And I don't think Odalis is really pitching any better than earlier in the year....just been able to get out of the big innings. But they are still their for the taking off him, and he is always good for 4 runs a start...with the chance for a lot more always a possibility. He pitched better ERA-wise last game, but still gave up 10 hits. Detroit also hits lefties pretty well.

            Who knows, that's why they play the games...and I can definitely see your reasoning now. GL Stif.

            Comment

            • Stifler's Mom
              Moderator
              • Feb 2007
              • 8541

              #7
              Originally posted by rjp
              Stif, true odds for Houston tonight is -276 or so. Very small value with -260.
              On paper you are probably correct, but, I don't normally handicap games that way. It's impossible to factor in the correct home court advantage for game 7 of a playoff series for one. I'm not sure what the exact percentage is, but the visitor doesn't take game 7 very often....and I do know that historically, the team who wins game 5 goes on to win the series about 90% of the time. I realize that number drops once they don't take game 6, but the home court advantage is absolutely huge in a game 7....much more so than 2.5 to 1. I would say 4/1 would be closer to correct, and that may be just a tad conservative....although again, I'm not positive.

              And that's just the blind home court advantage. Then when you add to it that Houston is a much better team than Utah (IMHO anyway), and the Utah has been a worthless road team for the entire 2nd half of the season, and I don't have a problem laying the ML with Houston. Utah hasn't won at Houston yet (or many other road games for that matter in the 2nd half of the season), and I see no reason they should break that trend tonight. I'll already be laying the points for a regular play....it's just that I'm not positive that a play on a ML that large suits my purposes for what I'm trying to accomplish, since it extends the # of games I must hit consecutively.

              Also, I'm fairly sure the series would have been over Thursday night if the officiating had been on the same level. I doubt they're gonna let AK-47 hack the living **** out of guys and not call fouls with the game being in Houston like they did in game 6. Utah would have to play the game of their lives to win tonight.

              Just how i see it.
              Last edited by Stifler's Mom; 05-05-2007, 05:00 PM.

              Comment

              • Stifler's Mom
                Moderator
                • Feb 2007
                • 8541

                #8
                Well, the Cock Rockets blow, lol

                Comment

                • vazman05
                  Senior Member
                  • Feb 2007
                  • 3049

                  #9
                  Yao Ming is playing like a piece of **** missing shots left and right....and since when is Carlos Boozer the **** lol...****in Rockets better pick it up....

                  Comment

                  • vazman05
                    Senior Member
                    • Feb 2007
                    • 3049

                    #10
                    also, what is the deal with the announcers hard on for derek fisher....

                    Comment

                    • vazman05
                      Senior Member
                      • Feb 2007
                      • 3049

                      #11
                      yao ming is a little bitch lol....getting blocked by carlos boozer who is about 5 feet shorter then him....good to see yao really wants it tonight....what a bum....

                      Comment

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