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A couple for today...at first glance I have a feeling I am going to be on a lot of chalk
TB -165 2 Units
I normally would play the RL here with this kind of chalk but Toronto manages to play a good number of 1 run games. I also think Toronto's quality bullpen should help them limit the damage after Reyes leaves the game. But overall I really like Reyes to pitch poorly (4+ runs in 6 or fewer innings) and Davis to pitch well (2 or fewer and into the 7th inning). Davis has an incredible track record against everyone except Escobar and the only concern I have is keeping Davis and the other players that can run off the bases. Tampa is doing a terrible job of throwing out runners but that has been more of a problem for Jaso who is an abysmal 3-22 on the season. Fortunately Shoppach will be behind the plate tonight. Davis does a good job of holding runners but that will be an issue to watch in this game. Toronto has already won 4 of 7 on the road trip to Tex, NYY and TB so they should be a little pleased and with Longoria coming back I think TB has an emotional lift as well. I don't love big chalk plays but I think one fits my criteria of what I would want in a matchup.
NYY - 155 3 Units
This line is preposterous IMO. NYY has the better pitcher, the more rested pitcher, a pitcher with an excellent track record against everyone not named Cabrera, facing a pitcher who gets pounded by the NYY lineup. NYY also has a lineup averaging 2 runs per game more vs the hand of the pitcher they are facing, will likely have no core players out of the lineup, have the deeper bullpen and the more rested bullpen although NYY will likely not have Rivera available they will have Soriano to close while Valverde probably will not be available after throwing 35 pitches in getting knocked around last night. NY is defeating RHP at a 2-1 clip this season and seems to have flown under the radar as they don't seem to get mentioned when people talk about teams playing well. I also like the matchup from the perspective of Colon dominated Detroit (Except Avila) with all fastballs and CC is basically fastball, change when he has command and that repertoire should play well as he will sit right around 92 as Colon was last night. If this loses with me playing this kind of line on the road it will probably be because CC is a mess and Cabrera goes nuts and Penny shuts them down. I don't think the likelihood of all that occurring is very high and will happily take my loss and move on to the next one if that's the case.
Penny doesn't have the stuff to navigate a decent hitting lineup in the AL. His only decent start against an AL team was the White Sox when they were getting no more than 1 run a game over a 10-12 game stretch. Otherwise he is good for atleast 3-4 runs in less than 6 innings before turning it over to the gas men.
Cincy RL -1' +115 2 Units
Same thoughts as yesterday...bad day for Happ...good day for Philips, Gomes and Stubbs.
Minnesota/CWS over 9 +100 3 Units
I expect one of these guys to get torched and the walks to hurt them both.
FLA/STL Over 8 2 Units
Colorado -130 2 Units
glta
TB -165 2 Units
I normally would play the RL here with this kind of chalk but Toronto manages to play a good number of 1 run games. I also think Toronto's quality bullpen should help them limit the damage after Reyes leaves the game. But overall I really like Reyes to pitch poorly (4+ runs in 6 or fewer innings) and Davis to pitch well (2 or fewer and into the 7th inning). Davis has an incredible track record against everyone except Escobar and the only concern I have is keeping Davis and the other players that can run off the bases. Tampa is doing a terrible job of throwing out runners but that has been more of a problem for Jaso who is an abysmal 3-22 on the season. Fortunately Shoppach will be behind the plate tonight. Davis does a good job of holding runners but that will be an issue to watch in this game. Toronto has already won 4 of 7 on the road trip to Tex, NYY and TB so they should be a little pleased and with Longoria coming back I think TB has an emotional lift as well. I don't love big chalk plays but I think one fits my criteria of what I would want in a matchup.
NYY - 155 3 Units
This line is preposterous IMO. NYY has the better pitcher, the more rested pitcher, a pitcher with an excellent track record against everyone not named Cabrera, facing a pitcher who gets pounded by the NYY lineup. NYY also has a lineup averaging 2 runs per game more vs the hand of the pitcher they are facing, will likely have no core players out of the lineup, have the deeper bullpen and the more rested bullpen although NYY will likely not have Rivera available they will have Soriano to close while Valverde probably will not be available after throwing 35 pitches in getting knocked around last night. NY is defeating RHP at a 2-1 clip this season and seems to have flown under the radar as they don't seem to get mentioned when people talk about teams playing well. I also like the matchup from the perspective of Colon dominated Detroit (Except Avila) with all fastballs and CC is basically fastball, change when he has command and that repertoire should play well as he will sit right around 92 as Colon was last night. If this loses with me playing this kind of line on the road it will probably be because CC is a mess and Cabrera goes nuts and Penny shuts them down. I don't think the likelihood of all that occurring is very high and will happily take my loss and move on to the next one if that's the case.
Penny doesn't have the stuff to navigate a decent hitting lineup in the AL. His only decent start against an AL team was the White Sox when they were getting no more than 1 run a game over a 10-12 game stretch. Otherwise he is good for atleast 3-4 runs in less than 6 innings before turning it over to the gas men.
Cincy RL -1' +115 2 Units
Same thoughts as yesterday...bad day for Happ...good day for Philips, Gomes and Stubbs.
Minnesota/CWS over 9 +100 3 Units
I expect one of these guys to get torched and the walks to hurt them both.
FLA/STL Over 8 2 Units
Colorado -130 2 Units
glta
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