Friday BEST BET

[Kevin]

YTD 15-23-1 -15.51
Favorites:
-106 to -109: 1-1 -0.06
-110 to -119: 1-4 -10.48
-120 to -129: 0-2 -3.74
-130 to -139: 2-0 +5.00
-140 to -149: 1-1 -0.90
-150 to -159: 0-1 -15.00
(I won't be playing anything above -159)
Underdogs:
-104 to -101: 0-0
+100 to +109: 2-2 +0.47
+110 to +119: 1-1 +10.30
+120 to +129: 0-1 -2.00
+130 to +139: 1-1 +3.17
+140 to +149: 1-3 +1.41
+150 to +159: 0-1 -5.00
+160 to +169: 0-0
+170 to +179: 0-0
+180 to +189: 0-0
+190 to +199: 1-0 +1.95
Overs: 0-2 -8.80
Unders: 4-3-1 +8.25

Taking:

Tampa Bay at -150 (15 units to win 10 units)(loss)

Good luck to all!

[JB]

Big one Boss....
Really hope you cash!!!

:-)

[V3r1f13d]

I've been so back and forth on this play (mostly leaning on TB) but I couldn't pull the trigger.

GL man.
Santana hasn't been on point so far.
I like the play.

[Reggie Hamlin]

Kevin like the play here's why

Probable Starting Pitchers: LA Angels - Ervin Santana (0-3, 5.51) Tampa Bay - David Price (3-2, 3.19)

Ervin Santana (0-3, 5.51 ERA) takes to the mound for the Angels & he has been terrible in two road starts this year with a 7.59 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. Santana is 4-5 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 11 career starts vs TB.. He only faced them once last year and was shelled for six runs on eight hits (2 HR) in a 10-3 loss. He is also 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA in seven career starts at Tampa Bay.

On the mond for the Rays is their ace David Price (3-2, 3.19 ERA) . Price has won each of his past three starts, posting a 2.28 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in these 23.2 innings of work. Price, who has pitched to 3.19 ERA, has faced the Angels four times and is 1-1 against them with a 4.18 ERA.

Good luck

[Kevin]

Nice job Reg. I love to see a guy do his homework!

There's some robust numbers for this matchup. Here's my notes:

Santana Road Stats (this season)
10.2 innings pitched
17 hits allowed
7.59 ERA
1.97 WHIP
.362 opponent batting average against him

He's gotten **** run support from his team: (0,1,2,4,4 runs)

Santana's career numbers are much weaker vs. left handed hitters and there are 8 in the lineup tonight against him. (1.45 whip and .271 average against, vs. a 1.20 whip and .252 average against vs. rhb)

Santana has made 7 starts at "The Trop" and has only managed to achieve 1 win. He's tossed 40.1 innings in those 7 starts allowing 56 hits and a whopping 33 earned runs. It's not the longball thats killing him there either as he's only given up 3. In summary, he's got a 7.66 ERA at Tropicana Field with a 1.66 whip and whopping .333 batting average against him. It's safe to say that dude doesn't really enjoy pitching there! lol.

That fat w.h.i.p. should mean that runners will be on base often. Santana is a pitcher who is bothered by base runners as evidenced by his career numbers which sport a hefty 7.45 ERA with runners on and a 9.86 ERA when those runners are in scoring position.

Maddon runs a lot too, so this should add extra pressure to the situation. The Rays are 2nd in the AL in stolen bases.

My one concern about this game is that the TB hitters haven't had very strong performances vs. Santana over their career's. Im hoping that the fact that TB has won 5 in a row and are 8-2 in their L10 games will overshadow that. Hot bats and good pitching supercede career averages (as far as im concerned)

I absolutely love Price in this spot. He's allowing a .170 average at home to opposing hitters (yes, 15 innings isnt much to chirp about) but there are career numbers (at home) to support this. Get this... In 201 innings at Tropicana Field, he's only yielded 150 hits and 52 earned runs. This equates to a nifty 2.33 home ERA and a nasty 1.08 whip. All the while, opponents only hit .203 against him during that span. (He's 18-6 there over 31 starts in case you're wondering)

He's a great early season pitcher too. In 65 career "April" innings, he's got a 2.76 ERA with a 1.06 whip.

He's pretty much handled most of LA's hitters (over his career)
Abreau 1-7
Aybar 1-7
Bourgeos 0-3
Hunter 1-6
Wells 4-20
Mathis 2-7
Kendrick 4-11

None of those guys have gone yard off of him either.

TB is hot, the Angels are not, Price is on the hill, Santana faltering. Nice combination of stats here!

Considering the circumstances, I feel that the Rays should be a -225 favorite here. With that being said, -150 is "on sale" as far as I'm concerned so I'm laying the freakin' wood, despite not being real excited about siding with a number this chalky. I've seen the number as low as -146 around the net. Shop for the best line! It can save ya some loot!

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

[wsox08]

looks good, Kevin. I'm on it. Good luck!