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Nice day yesterday but was expecting better. Once again the totals were a lot better to me than the sides. So of course I have more sides than totals today.
SF/Pitt First 5 over
Wind blowing out, two mediocre flyball pitchers. Even though there will likely be no Posey I still like both offenses. I am going with first 5 to stay away from two bullpens that are pretty decent IMO. Both teams have also scored a few more runs in the last games of series to this point. I'll add the line when it's available but I am thinking 4' -125.
Seattle +105 2 Units
Michael Pineda vs Brad Penny. Brad Penny sucks and there is no way he is throwing back to back gems. Pineda throws gas and has dominated better offenses than Detroit. Tasty matchup for him as well since Leyland will probably throw a bench player or two in the middle of the order to rest his starters.
Toronto +145 4 Units
Morrow was pretty good in his last start except for 2 HR balls. He stuff was excellent and he appeared to be up to speed after getting a couple of rehab starts. I would expect more of the same against Texas. Texas has struggled when facing RH power pitchers with similar stuff to Morrow (Felix, Pineda, Verlander, Weaver to some extent) guys who run it up in the mid to upper 90's with their fastball. I feel the Texas lineup has several guys who can't catch up to that heat and have to guess. Pineda dominated them until a defensive misplay and I don't see why Morrow can't have the same success with his great stuff. Ogando has been great but I think his effectiveness could be affected by his 114 pitch outing last start. He is on 4 days rest for the first time and off an outing of 22 more pitches than his highest previous outing. With Toronto swinging a bunch of hot bats this week I think this is a golden opportunity with the pitching mismatch. I would be shocked if Ogando is pitching effectively in the 6th inning and the Texas pen has throw a bunch of innings the last few days and they aren't that effective as a group.
KC/Cleve over 8' -115 3 Units
Carmona gets hit by the KC lineup, Davies sucks, wind blowing out. I don't think it takes a lot more analysis than that. KC should get atleast 3 and Cleveland should be putting up a couple of crooked numbers.
Boston -1' -115 3 Units
Lester has never lost to Baltimore and always pitches great. Bergesen sucks. I hate Boston and I hate betting on them but this is an absolute mismatch. Boston is susceptible to good pitching and LHP, Bergesen is neither of those. Maybe even the $142 million dollar man will get a base hit or score a run today. Although he doesn't get as many AB's when he's hitting out of the 8 hole, Welcome to Boston Carl!! I kept hearing on the radio that Baltimore plays Boston tough, yes that's true when they are sending, you know, a good pitcher to the hill. The Matusz's, Britton's, Guthrie's of the world are a wee level or 3 above Bergesen who strikes out a whopping 4.5 guys per nine. No miss bats, no go deep in game, no keep ball in park. And I just noticed there is a slight breeze to the power alley in left tonight, look for Gonzalez to put one in the bullpen.
glta
SF/Pitt First 5 over
Wind blowing out, two mediocre flyball pitchers. Even though there will likely be no Posey I still like both offenses. I am going with first 5 to stay away from two bullpens that are pretty decent IMO. Both teams have also scored a few more runs in the last games of series to this point. I'll add the line when it's available but I am thinking 4' -125.
Seattle +105 2 Units
Michael Pineda vs Brad Penny. Brad Penny sucks and there is no way he is throwing back to back gems. Pineda throws gas and has dominated better offenses than Detroit. Tasty matchup for him as well since Leyland will probably throw a bench player or two in the middle of the order to rest his starters.
Toronto +145 4 Units
Morrow was pretty good in his last start except for 2 HR balls. He stuff was excellent and he appeared to be up to speed after getting a couple of rehab starts. I would expect more of the same against Texas. Texas has struggled when facing RH power pitchers with similar stuff to Morrow (Felix, Pineda, Verlander, Weaver to some extent) guys who run it up in the mid to upper 90's with their fastball. I feel the Texas lineup has several guys who can't catch up to that heat and have to guess. Pineda dominated them until a defensive misplay and I don't see why Morrow can't have the same success with his great stuff. Ogando has been great but I think his effectiveness could be affected by his 114 pitch outing last start. He is on 4 days rest for the first time and off an outing of 22 more pitches than his highest previous outing. With Toronto swinging a bunch of hot bats this week I think this is a golden opportunity with the pitching mismatch. I would be shocked if Ogando is pitching effectively in the 6th inning and the Texas pen has throw a bunch of innings the last few days and they aren't that effective as a group.
KC/Cleve over 8' -115 3 Units
Carmona gets hit by the KC lineup, Davies sucks, wind blowing out. I don't think it takes a lot more analysis than that. KC should get atleast 3 and Cleveland should be putting up a couple of crooked numbers.
Boston -1' -115 3 Units
Lester has never lost to Baltimore and always pitches great. Bergesen sucks. I hate Boston and I hate betting on them but this is an absolute mismatch. Boston is susceptible to good pitching and LHP, Bergesen is neither of those. Maybe even the $142 million dollar man will get a base hit or score a run today. Although he doesn't get as many AB's when he's hitting out of the 8 hole, Welcome to Boston Carl!! I kept hearing on the radio that Baltimore plays Boston tough, yes that's true when they are sending, you know, a good pitcher to the hill. The Matusz's, Britton's, Guthrie's of the world are a wee level or 3 above Bergesen who strikes out a whopping 4.5 guys per nine. No miss bats, no go deep in game, no keep ball in park. And I just noticed there is a slight breeze to the power alley in left tonight, look for Gonzalez to put one in the bullpen.
glta
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