JB's MLB Thursday

[JB]

5-2 (+2.95) overall for the week

Making a slight assumption here that Colorado holds on and wins game 1
IF So...well regardless actually....

922 NY Mets - Game 2 (+120) Vs. Colorado
-To avoid a four game sweep (assumed loss in the current game)
-To avoid a double header sweep (assumed loss in the current game)
-Fade team after facing a knuckleballer (regardless of result in the current game)
-Taking a stab at the home Mets at +120 (regardless of result in the current game)

1 unit

Good Luck!

[Franchise]

JB...One note on the DH sweep, I don't have the numbers but I believe a sweep in a DH occurs more than a split. I don't have the percentages but I recall it being somewhere between 60-65 percent of the time.

[JB]

Ill have to see if I can find some numbers...
I can NOT, however, imagine home teams getting swept in a double header 60% of the time....

I could be totaly wrong....just a gut reaction...but if I can play the home team at +120 to avoid a double header sweep and a four game series sweep Ill do it 90% of the time....

With that said...The Mets damn near came back and won game 1 which would have really messed with my reasoning to take them.....lol....

Good Luck to ya Franchise!

[JB]

This data is a little old but shows that Franchise is a bit closer, probably, to the correct stat then I am...though this does not break out home and road.

Year - Sweeps - Splits
2008 - 14-11
2007 - 12-10
2006 - 10-13
2005 - 7-11
2004 - 23-15
2003 - 20-8
2002 - 14-10
Double Header Record Key Points
Overall MLB double header Sweep/Split record stands at 100-78 in favor of the sweep.

Double headers were swept 56.2% of the time.
5 out of 7 years, more double headers ended up in a sweep than a split.

The last 2 years (07-08), double headers were swept 55.3% (26-21).

Bottom Line About Double Header Betting Records

Ignoring all other factors, betting the 2nd game of a double header on the team that won the 1st game should be profitable as long as the line is -109 or better. If you can wait until the end of the first game to make a bet, and the team that won the first game of the double header is an underdog, you should bet on that team.

[Franchise]

Sorry I wasn't thinking about the home portion of it, just that sweeps in general were more likely to occur and that seems to be something that in general people don't expect. It would be interesting to see that broken down by betting lines to see how it falls. As for this game I like Colorado a lot more before they burned out Belisle and Street in the first game.

[Stifler's Mom]

These numbers also don't break down and eliminate sweeps when one team is "far better" than the other and playing at home....for example anyone sweeping the 06 royals or something in a dh....which also inflates the number of sweeps.

[Stifler's Mom]

I also remember hearing b2b dh's are historically more likely to split too rather than day/night ones. Weather that's true or not I really don't know though.

[JB]

In this day in age almost everying is a Twi-Night doubleheader or day/night double header.

I was almost surprised when I say the Mets/Rockies where a true b2b doubleheader...you just don't see that anymore.....

Guess that both teams gotta travel and start a series tomorrow.....meaning both will be good fades tomorrow (hint...hint.....;-)

[JB]

After all of that....a 6 run 6th equals my demise....

5-3 (+1.95) overall for the week

[Horfin]

Ignoring all other factors, betting the 2nd game of a double header on the team that won the 1st game should be profitable as long as the line is -109 or better. If you can wait until the end of the first game to make a bet, and the team that won the first game of the double header is an underdog, you should bet on that team.

Now that is what I like... A Nice concise rule that is based in logic and stats!


Horf!n