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Great day getting started with NYY/Boston in mid afternoon.
NYY/Bos over 10 -105 3 Units
I think Hughes will have some issues due to his velocity being down and I would be shocked if he puts up 6 innings of 1 run or less today even with Boston's struggles. While they have been shut down by lesser pitchers this week they have several individuals that have had success against Hughes (Drew, Ortiz and Youk plus Gonzalez should be fine with him) although he has handled the rest of the lineup pretty well and the Sox in general. The Yankee bullpen is a little worn down and even if they have a lead it will be interesting to see if and how Soriano performs since this will be 4 days in 5 and another back to back outing. It's possible the Yankees try to avoid using him tonight. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Hughes get bombed for 7 plus run in less than 5 innings tonight as Boston gets back to playing at home. Lackey on the other hand I think is more of a certaintity. For the most part he got bombed against the better offenses last season and although he pitched well against NY in two starts, one was the first of the year and the second was a meaningless October game for NY. I expect Lackey to give up 3-6 through 5 innings with NY being able to tack on late in the game against a vulnerable bullpen. Both teams are stacked with atleast 6 LHB against pitching staff's that have one LH specialist. I would lean to NY for a side since I think Hughes has a much better chance of pitching well but either pitcher could get lit in a rout which leads me to the over. Last season the over was 12-4 with a few pushes and incidentally Lackey or Hughes was involved in every under. I don't see that repeating today but it should be a great game, especially if Boston falls to 0-7.
Detroit -1' +130 2 Units
KC has been dominated by the hard throwing pitchers they have faced and I expect more of the same from Scherzer (and their lineup has proven they can't hit him). If the Tigers can get from Scherzer to Valverde they should be fine and should hold the Royals to no more than 3-4 runs. On the other side the Tigers have scalding numbers of Davies and have started hot against the pitchers they have faced with mediocre stuff. Their lineup has hit for power throughout the lineup and they should continue to knock doubles today off Davies. The bullpen has also been worked quite a bit the last few games and fatigue may be an issue there as well. I like the final something like Tigers 6-8, Royals 1-4.
Oakland/Minny Under 8 -105 3 Units
I love the starters, the big park and the ability of Anderson to neutralize a good portion of the Twins lineup. Thanks to Pavano pitching in Toronto we get a solid 8 on the number but he should be much better with his giant park to hold fly balls and a lineup that isn't nearly the home run hitting threat.
Baltimore even 2 Units
I like Britton a lot. I don't like Lewis a lot, or the Rangers pen. I like the way Baltimore is swinging the bats right now and Vlade should be very motivated with a little chip on his shoulder. With Luke Scott back in the lineup the O's have legit depth in the lineup. I think even money and not travelling is good enough for me.
Florida
I'm considering them or the under depending on the status of Bourn and Stanton. I think Nolasco marches pretty easily through the Astros Triple A lineup as he looked great against the Mets and the Astros don't have any LHB to give him problems.
Phillies/Atl Under 7 -115 3 Units
The Braves really struggled with Narveson the other day and watching that he looked like a mini Lee, moving the ball around and controlling the corners. I think if Lee is pitching decent he should be able to control them the same way. I don't believe the Phils have a good offense and Tim Hudson isn't Mike Pelphrey. He has had success against these Phils last year and this offense doesn't sniff that one. I'll take the low total.
TB/CWS Under 7' -105 3 Units
I don't think TB scores tonight, maybe one lucky homer but that will be more difficult with the wind blowing in. I can rattle all the positives from Danks side of things but it isn't necessary, there are a lot of things in his favor. Shields looked good, Dunn may either be out or less effective, as long as they control the running game a little either by keeping guys off the bases or maybe throwing someone out I think this game is a pitcher's duel. I don't see TB winning unless Shields shuts them out but this play has a lot less juice than the Sox.
And with the way the line has moved since I started today I would lean even harder to NYY and will make a play if it moves anymore. Boston is due to win a game but I didn't think they were the best team in the league before the season started. Their improved on offense due to the free agents is greatly exaggerated.
glta
NYY/Bos over 10 -105 3 Units
I think Hughes will have some issues due to his velocity being down and I would be shocked if he puts up 6 innings of 1 run or less today even with Boston's struggles. While they have been shut down by lesser pitchers this week they have several individuals that have had success against Hughes (Drew, Ortiz and Youk plus Gonzalez should be fine with him) although he has handled the rest of the lineup pretty well and the Sox in general. The Yankee bullpen is a little worn down and even if they have a lead it will be interesting to see if and how Soriano performs since this will be 4 days in 5 and another back to back outing. It's possible the Yankees try to avoid using him tonight. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Hughes get bombed for 7 plus run in less than 5 innings tonight as Boston gets back to playing at home. Lackey on the other hand I think is more of a certaintity. For the most part he got bombed against the better offenses last season and although he pitched well against NY in two starts, one was the first of the year and the second was a meaningless October game for NY. I expect Lackey to give up 3-6 through 5 innings with NY being able to tack on late in the game against a vulnerable bullpen. Both teams are stacked with atleast 6 LHB against pitching staff's that have one LH specialist. I would lean to NY for a side since I think Hughes has a much better chance of pitching well but either pitcher could get lit in a rout which leads me to the over. Last season the over was 12-4 with a few pushes and incidentally Lackey or Hughes was involved in every under. I don't see that repeating today but it should be a great game, especially if Boston falls to 0-7.
Detroit -1' +130 2 Units
KC has been dominated by the hard throwing pitchers they have faced and I expect more of the same from Scherzer (and their lineup has proven they can't hit him). If the Tigers can get from Scherzer to Valverde they should be fine and should hold the Royals to no more than 3-4 runs. On the other side the Tigers have scalding numbers of Davies and have started hot against the pitchers they have faced with mediocre stuff. Their lineup has hit for power throughout the lineup and they should continue to knock doubles today off Davies. The bullpen has also been worked quite a bit the last few games and fatigue may be an issue there as well. I like the final something like Tigers 6-8, Royals 1-4.
Oakland/Minny Under 8 -105 3 Units
I love the starters, the big park and the ability of Anderson to neutralize a good portion of the Twins lineup. Thanks to Pavano pitching in Toronto we get a solid 8 on the number but he should be much better with his giant park to hold fly balls and a lineup that isn't nearly the home run hitting threat.
Baltimore even 2 Units
I like Britton a lot. I don't like Lewis a lot, or the Rangers pen. I like the way Baltimore is swinging the bats right now and Vlade should be very motivated with a little chip on his shoulder. With Luke Scott back in the lineup the O's have legit depth in the lineup. I think even money and not travelling is good enough for me.
Florida
I'm considering them or the under depending on the status of Bourn and Stanton. I think Nolasco marches pretty easily through the Astros Triple A lineup as he looked great against the Mets and the Astros don't have any LHB to give him problems.
Phillies/Atl Under 7 -115 3 Units
The Braves really struggled with Narveson the other day and watching that he looked like a mini Lee, moving the ball around and controlling the corners. I think if Lee is pitching decent he should be able to control them the same way. I don't believe the Phils have a good offense and Tim Hudson isn't Mike Pelphrey. He has had success against these Phils last year and this offense doesn't sniff that one. I'll take the low total.
TB/CWS Under 7' -105 3 Units
I don't think TB scores tonight, maybe one lucky homer but that will be more difficult with the wind blowing in. I can rattle all the positives from Danks side of things but it isn't necessary, there are a lot of things in his favor. Shields looked good, Dunn may either be out or less effective, as long as they control the running game a little either by keeping guys off the bases or maybe throwing someone out I think this game is a pitcher's duel. I don't see TB winning unless Shields shuts them out but this play has a lot less juice than the Sox.
And with the way the line has moved since I started today I would lean even harder to NYY and will make a play if it moves anymore. Boston is due to win a game but I didn't think they were the best team in the league before the season started. Their improved on offense due to the free agents is greatly exaggerated.
glta
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