Tweet
A couple of thoughts today
SF -125 2 Units
I am looking to back Baumgartner in this matchup since while I like the stuff that the first 3 starters for SD bring to the table I need to see more velocity from Harang before I get behind him. He velocity was down in spring training and although they have a very capable pen this will likely be a close game with less than 9 runs. I like the Giants to get 2-3 early runs off Harang and that should be enough for the Giants to hold on. I also like the Giants offense and was a little surprised they didn't put up more offense in LA, although LA did get some very good pitching performances. I don't think the Giants pitching holds up health wise over the long haul but I think this is a good spot for them to get things started.
If this was -135 I would definitely have stayed away from the matchup and this line is probably about as high as I would go.
Bos/Cle
I would be fading Beckett but Tomlin is pretty brutal. And with the wind blowing in and a cold night I don't want to mess around with this total.
NYM/Philly over 8 4 Units
Mets offense has been decent, Phils offense has been hitting the ball well for now. The wind will be blowing out to right about 18 mph, Chris Young is on the hill, Cole had a poor spring and the Mets have decent track records against him. And neither team has a lights out pen. A lot to like here.
Seattle +150 2 Units
I like Pineda, I like how he matches up against Texas (I think the type of pitcher they will struggle with is RH power) he can blow away a few of their hitters purely because they can't hit the hard stuff. As long as he works carefully to Hamilton I like his chances to limit the damage. As for Ogando I don't expect him to get deep in the game and once you get to the Rangers bullpen it's time to start circling the bases. With Figgins and Bradley hitting the ball like they are capable of the M's lineup is really pretty decent. They give them a legit top 3 in their lineup that they didn't have last year.
Also considered plays on Pitt/Stl under but McDonald is limited on pitches tonight, Florida - I didn't know Marquis was still in the league. Am still considering some things on the Braves/Brewers.
Also adding
Dbacks/Cubs over 9' +100 3 Units
Tailing a little of Badger's thinking and although I don't think Enright is clearly the better pitcher and he could easily be exposed since he is so dependent on fly ball outs. Also he has a little reverse platoon situation with his numbers from last season so the mostly RH Cubs lineup might work out pretty well. As for Castner I would like to see him produce before he garners this much line respect. Seems a little steep although I don't have faith in Enright. I don't expect either pitcher to get out here with less than 3 runs allowed. I have also lost every Cub over I played so far so I should probably keep upping the units until I hit one. They have to go over again at some point.
SF -125 2 Units
I am looking to back Baumgartner in this matchup since while I like the stuff that the first 3 starters for SD bring to the table I need to see more velocity from Harang before I get behind him. He velocity was down in spring training and although they have a very capable pen this will likely be a close game with less than 9 runs. I like the Giants to get 2-3 early runs off Harang and that should be enough for the Giants to hold on. I also like the Giants offense and was a little surprised they didn't put up more offense in LA, although LA did get some very good pitching performances. I don't think the Giants pitching holds up health wise over the long haul but I think this is a good spot for them to get things started.
If this was -135 I would definitely have stayed away from the matchup and this line is probably about as high as I would go.
Bos/Cle
I would be fading Beckett but Tomlin is pretty brutal. And with the wind blowing in and a cold night I don't want to mess around with this total.
NYM/Philly over 8 4 Units
Mets offense has been decent, Phils offense has been hitting the ball well for now. The wind will be blowing out to right about 18 mph, Chris Young is on the hill, Cole had a poor spring and the Mets have decent track records against him. And neither team has a lights out pen. A lot to like here.
Seattle +150 2 Units
I like Pineda, I like how he matches up against Texas (I think the type of pitcher they will struggle with is RH power) he can blow away a few of their hitters purely because they can't hit the hard stuff. As long as he works carefully to Hamilton I like his chances to limit the damage. As for Ogando I don't expect him to get deep in the game and once you get to the Rangers bullpen it's time to start circling the bases. With Figgins and Bradley hitting the ball like they are capable of the M's lineup is really pretty decent. They give them a legit top 3 in their lineup that they didn't have last year.
Also considered plays on Pitt/Stl under but McDonald is limited on pitches tonight, Florida - I didn't know Marquis was still in the league. Am still considering some things on the Braves/Brewers.
Also adding
Dbacks/Cubs over 9' +100 3 Units
Tailing a little of Badger's thinking and although I don't think Enright is clearly the better pitcher and he could easily be exposed since he is so dependent on fly ball outs. Also he has a little reverse platoon situation with his numbers from last season so the mostly RH Cubs lineup might work out pretty well. As for Castner I would like to see him produce before he garners this much line respect. Seems a little steep although I don't have faith in Enright. I don't expect either pitcher to get out here with less than 3 runs allowed. I have also lost every Cub over I played so far so I should probably keep upping the units until I hit one. They have to go over again at some point.
Comment