Friday

[Franchise]

I'll be back with a few more early this afternoon but I wanted to get this in.

Houston/Philly

I would be backing Myers if he wasn't such a slow starter. He typically hasn't been sharp in his first few outings and the fact that Halladay has been lights out will make it tough. But I think there will be significant value betting against the Phillies with their SP (especially Oswalt) since their lineup will likely struggle to plate runs. I honestly don't see how they will score since you can pitch around Howard and you are left with no legit HR threats and will be forced to manufacture runs and string hits together. I think this will be a season long issue unless they pick up another big bat (but where to play?) and how are they going to afford that. Robby Cano and Arod aren't walking through that door.

I am going to look a little more at each lineup and am considering the under with the weather and the lineups.

[Franchise]

I'm going to pass on the Stros/Phils matchup. Wind blowing to right and rain/cold in the forecast not the best opportunity. Although I will be fading the Phils quite a bit so I hope they light it up today.

Chi Sox/Tribe Under 8 -110 2 Units

I like that Buehrle was very sharp in his lasst outing and I hope he is able to get a feel today. I don't have any numbers on him in cold weather but I like his confidence after the way he ended his spring. Cleveland also has a few holes and young players in their lineup which should help him as his ability to mix up his pitches should be an issue for a few of them. The fact that he's LH should help since the bulk of Cleveland's offensive power is either LH or stronger from the LH side. On the other side Carmona has been very good against the Sox and has strong numbers against a lot of their key guys (Dunn 0-8, Rios 3-18, Pierre 1-8). In the cold weather I think the fast pace will help both pitchers and I think as long as Carmona is able to throw strikes the game should stay under. If he gets 6 innings I like my chances since both pens are able to handle 3 quality innings of work, more so the Sox. I leaned to the Sox initially but after looking at Carmona history vs the Sox and Buehrle's more mixed results I opted to stay away from a side. Carmona has been better vs the Sox than his season numbers the last 3 years. Looking for more of the same.

[Franchise]

Boston -108 2 Units

I can see some reasons why the line is where it's at but I don't agree with them. Lester has started slow in some past seasons but he has typically righted the ship quickly and in some of the outings he didn't pitch as bad as the numbers ended up looking. He also appears to be stretched out just find and should be comfortable until near 100 pitches with the Texas heat. After that he turns it over to the capable hands of Jenks, Bard and Paplebon. Wilson was brilliant against the Sox last season but I think the 3 starts gave them enough of a look to come back with a better game plan. Wilson walks a lot of guys, too many guys, and per Buster Olney he threw the second lowest percentage of strikes of all qualifying pitchers. That screams lucky. He also left his last spring outing early so he may not be as stretched out as they would like and their pen is a mess. I wouldn't be surprised to see Wilson out before the end of the 5th or way past where he would feel comfortable and effective in a pitch count. And at that point I'll take Boston at odds a long way from 108.

I don't like Boston as much as many this year, I think they go under on their wins and I think they will struggle with LHP's. But I don't have questions about Lester and a LHP that nibbles and doesn't throw strikes will have an elevated pitch count and allow them to get to the pen.

[Franchise]

Another one

Toronto -120 2 Units

I love Romero as a starter and his changeup is devastating to LHB. I think he'll get a lot of use out of it against the middle of the order. I like the blend of power hitters the Jays have assembled and IMO they provide a horrible matchup for Pavano. Fly ball pitcher without overpower stuff vs fly ball hitters who want to drive the ball for homers in smallish park with ideal weather. I also have more concerns about the arms in front of the closer for Minnesota than I do for Toronto where they have several hard throwers. I think Minnesota is a much better fit for their large ballpark than they are for the Rogers Centre. I'm surprised the line is dropping so much but I don't think people realize the quality of play in Toronto since they got overshadowed by NY, TB and Boston the last few years.

Anaheim First 5 -140 2 Units

With such a negligible difference between the game and first 5 I will gladly take Rodney out of the equation. Once again I think we have good value for a quality major league starting pitcher against a minor league quality lineup. They don't take walks, they don't hit for power and they don't hit for average. Add that up and you don't score runs. While KC does have plenty of very good prospects that isn't going to win them games this year and with the talent they currently have I can't see them winning 60 games. Francis is very hittable and he doesn't strike out many batters. While the game was close yesterday Anaheim had plenty of chances to break it open and didn't. I expect the same today but with Francis not being able to K guys I don't think he gets out of the jams.


I also like the Rockies, Rays and Marlins but not at those prices. All of their pitchers have had success against the opposition and IMO they are facing 3 pretty sorry offenses. I am not impressed with the names the O's brought in.

[akatdrake]

Best of luck today Chise. Like your reasoning on the Blue Jays - really don't like Pavano's match-up today.