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A few thoughts
Det/NY = Pass. There are some conflicting trends for both pitchers here and while Verlander has been awesome in ST it doesn't really matter and he is typically worse on the road. In a game where the pitching matchup is a wash or possibly a slight advantage to CC with the wet weather (he is less dependent on his breaking ball which might be tough to throw in 40 degree rain) I think the Yankees clearly have a significant advantage offensively and in the bullpen. That being said I think a game with better weather has more value.
Atl/Wash Under 8' -120 2 Units
I like the bullpens that each team features and I don't think either manager will hesitate going to them if the starter is laboring. Livan has typically pitched best in the early portion of the year, possibly due to the accumulated wear and tear. While Lowe has been spotty his best April's have been a result of a good spring. And although I don't know what type of games he was pitching in the spring his numbers are solid enough that I think it translates over. In general I like the Braves offense but I think Livan and his junk balling will be a tough matchup for some of them (Uggla, Jones, McLouth and Gonzalez) and he only has to be decent against (Heyward, McCann and Prado) to keep them under control. Plus I like the weather where it will be blowing in a little from Left/Center which really helped unders in this park last season. It will be very tough to take one out to left/left-center especially with the skill set of the pitchers involved.
Mil/Cincy Over 8 2 Units
I think this is a great opportunity to get an over on the number 8. Gallardo has been spotty in his performances vs the Reds (either 1-2 runs or 6+) and while I love the Brewers this season I don't love their bullpen. The bullpen should be out there for atleast 3 full innings and if they are tied ore behind it may not be an effective reliever. I look for the Reds to score atleast 3 runs even if they don't blow up Gallardo. As for Volquez I think he gets lit like a Christmas tree. He doesn't throw strikes and when he comes over the plate in hitters counts the Brewers have plenty of players to make him pay. He has been poor in spring training and I don't expect him to turn it on when the lights come on. I can see a 3-2 outcome in this game but I think the more likely occurrence is someone puts up a 7.
Anaheim -140 2 Units
This seems like a total mismatch at first glance and when I delve into the numbers. I think Anaheim's offense will be better this year, even without Kendrys early on. I think their personnel really sets up well for Socicia style of managing and I think that starts to show today. The Royals on the other hand have a pitiful major league lineup and when they put guys like Cabrera, Francouer and Kila in their lineup they are putting below average major leaguers and a guy who may be a AAAA player. And they are in the top 5-6 of the lineup. They have a nice closer but I don't see it getting there.
Sd/Stl
I really like SD today but IMO enough value has been sucked out of the line that I'll pass. If it jumps closer to +180 I'll reconsider. I like Stauffer's stuff and I think their pitching and defense can play against an overrated Cards team.
glta
Det/NY = Pass. There are some conflicting trends for both pitchers here and while Verlander has been awesome in ST it doesn't really matter and he is typically worse on the road. In a game where the pitching matchup is a wash or possibly a slight advantage to CC with the wet weather (he is less dependent on his breaking ball which might be tough to throw in 40 degree rain) I think the Yankees clearly have a significant advantage offensively and in the bullpen. That being said I think a game with better weather has more value.
Atl/Wash Under 8' -120 2 Units
I like the bullpens that each team features and I don't think either manager will hesitate going to them if the starter is laboring. Livan has typically pitched best in the early portion of the year, possibly due to the accumulated wear and tear. While Lowe has been spotty his best April's have been a result of a good spring. And although I don't know what type of games he was pitching in the spring his numbers are solid enough that I think it translates over. In general I like the Braves offense but I think Livan and his junk balling will be a tough matchup for some of them (Uggla, Jones, McLouth and Gonzalez) and he only has to be decent against (Heyward, McCann and Prado) to keep them under control. Plus I like the weather where it will be blowing in a little from Left/Center which really helped unders in this park last season. It will be very tough to take one out to left/left-center especially with the skill set of the pitchers involved.
Mil/Cincy Over 8 2 Units
I think this is a great opportunity to get an over on the number 8. Gallardo has been spotty in his performances vs the Reds (either 1-2 runs or 6+) and while I love the Brewers this season I don't love their bullpen. The bullpen should be out there for atleast 3 full innings and if they are tied ore behind it may not be an effective reliever. I look for the Reds to score atleast 3 runs even if they don't blow up Gallardo. As for Volquez I think he gets lit like a Christmas tree. He doesn't throw strikes and when he comes over the plate in hitters counts the Brewers have plenty of players to make him pay. He has been poor in spring training and I don't expect him to turn it on when the lights come on. I can see a 3-2 outcome in this game but I think the more likely occurrence is someone puts up a 7.
Anaheim -140 2 Units
This seems like a total mismatch at first glance and when I delve into the numbers. I think Anaheim's offense will be better this year, even without Kendrys early on. I think their personnel really sets up well for Socicia style of managing and I think that starts to show today. The Royals on the other hand have a pitiful major league lineup and when they put guys like Cabrera, Francouer and Kila in their lineup they are putting below average major leaguers and a guy who may be a AAAA player. And they are in the top 5-6 of the lineup. They have a nice closer but I don't see it getting there.
Sd/Stl
I really like SD today but IMO enough value has been sucked out of the line that I'll pass. If it jumps closer to +180 I'll reconsider. I like Stauffer's stuff and I think their pitching and defense can play against an overrated Cards team.
glta
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