Saturday 4/28 MLB Discussion

[COACH DITKA]

I made one of these discussion threads one night earlier in the week. I need everyone's help to clear my mind. I am in such a rut right now and every bet seemingly is going the wrong way, a "when it rains, it pours" type of thing. It seems the stronger I feel about a play, the worse it gets blown out of the water. Anyways, here is what I'm thinking tomorrow (or today now).

Cincy ML +140 - Pittsburgh just has to lose sometime and Gorzelanny is nothing special. The Reds offense is due to break out of their funk.
Milwaukee ML -105 - I can't tell you anything about Sampson but Bush is clearly the much better pitcher. If they can't win w/Oswalt throwing, they really shouldn't win any time, esp. since their offense is anemic.
Mets RL - Yet another fade of Williams, who is plain awful. Last year the Mets dominated the Nats at RFK, taking 8 of 9 and outscoring them by about 40. Glavine on the hill + getting revenge for the loss tonight = a W for the Mets as their bats should explode vs Mr. Williams.
Baltimore ML +125 - I think this is good value for Bedard who has to turn things around as he can hopefully keep the Tribes' offense off balance. I am not sold yet on Sowers yet either.

Damn Sportsbook only has about half the lines up thus far so there are probably a few others that I would like and don't feel like looking up the Bodog lines now. LMK what all your thoughts are for the games so hopefully I can convince myself I'm not going crazy. Thanks.


Moose

[wsox08]

Brew Crew -102
I love the Brew at this price with Bush and the Astros cannot score.

ATL Braves -118
I like Smoltz on the rebound. He's 2-2 (3 saves) 4.44 era at Coors. Can Hirsh really keep this up?

SF Giants -122
Cain has been lights out so far this season.

Pads -123
not a huge Tomko fan

O's +122
Bedard coming off of two below average starts. Bed- In 3 starts at Jacobs he's 1-0 3.00 ERA (18IP, 15H, 14Ks)

White Sox -124
Garland averaging over 6IP per start and pitched great in Detroit last start but ended up with a ND. Weaver was horrible in his last start vs. Detroit and Angels 1-8 on the road.

[GamblinMan03]

Phillies/Marlins over 10 seems like a fantastic bet right now. First of all Willis has an ERA above 5 and Eaton's is above 6. Next the Phillies always seem to beat Willis and score runs in the process. Everyone in the Phils lineup with the exception of Howard is hitting the ball hard, even he can have a 2-run bomb on any given night. The Phils bullpen is going to be tired coming into tomorrow, they have been working hard lately, doing a great job however.

Parlay the Phils and the Over. Good luck

[PhillyFan3]

hey coach... here's what I think of what you got....

Rats-Reds... I think Gorlzelanny is pretty good, he is a young lefty with some dirty stuff and the Reds dont hit lefties for ****, I think there might be some better value in other road dogs then the Reds...they arent hitting the ball, their bullpen isnt anything special either and like FF said, they have one of the most inconsistent and poor hitting 7-9 heart of the order and Dunn has been K'ing like crazy....

I like the Brewers, as Houston blows, Im keeping myself from betting on that team, horrible pen, one of the worst hitting teams, and without a doubt one of the worst managers....

Balt-Cle... I like the O's as well, but I dont like to bet against streaks, one team on fire, the other is cold as ice....

take a look at Giants, Rangers, and White Sox... they seem like the best bets to me tonight...

gl tonight hopefully you can turn it around Coach, baseball is a marathon remember that, this is the sport that I feel is one you can turn it around ratherly quickly in

[Stifler's Mom]

The O's suck vs LHP on the road....especially a quality lefty like Sowers, and Bedard has been very very hittable this year. This is a horrible spot to bet on the lesser team hoping for the upset, because they don't have a single matchup in their favor today.

Much like last night, the books looking for Reds action again too IMO. The Pirates are the better team...the Reds just have the bigger names, and gain more public respect because when they win, they usually score alot. Pirates are a far more solid however, but just tough to lay -150 with their lackluster offense. Reds don't hit lefties for **** though. Maybe that will change at some point, but I doubt it. Problem is that the books have already caught on to the ****tyness of the Reds (esp vs LHP), so it's gonna be harder to make $$ going against em.

Anyway, both of those teams should definitely be dogs....and probably bigger ones than they already are. No value with either one, IMHO.

GL with whatever you decide to play :thumbs:

[COACH DITKA]

Hmm, let's see, I had 4 early leans, which ended up going 3-1. What do ya know, the only lean I bet on just happened to be the losing one. All I can say is when things start going south, they really start going south.

[Q-Unit]

"Don't give up! Don't ever give up!" - Jimmy V

:beerbang:

get it back man, GL