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Let's try and cash a couple today.
Texas +115 2 Units
I think this is a great matchup for Texas. They start with CJ Wilson going against a lineup that is a black hole after Longoria when facing a LHP. CJ Wilson is a very intelligent pitcher who understands pitching and making changes very well. He is an excellent study using video and after hearing his interviews on Sirius very often it is incredible how intelligent he is relative to other typical major leaguers. He understands how to pace himself and he has been very comfortable on the road. It appears he may have been a little worn down in some of his home starts down the stretch in the oppressive heat but on the road he has been very good, so good that with the exception of his walks he has been brilliant on the road. 63 hits in 89 innings? And he gets to face a team that doesn't hit for average and will probably have Baldelli and Shoppach starting as below average ML hitters, one of them at DH. On the other side we get Big Game James, who is really a lot like Edison Volquez and AJ Burnett. He gives up runs in bunches, he flashes the occasional gem to realize the potential is there to keep you wanting more, but in the end more often than not he disappoints. Texas is a good fastball hitting team and they seem to be hitting their stride much more than the Rays right now. I thought yesterday that Price would be able to overpower the Rangers lineup but that wasn't the case. Going from 95-96 with Price yesterday to Shields at a couple MPH's less should help their bats. I look for Cruz or Hamilton to turn one around with a couple guys on today. I'm shocked they didn't line up Garza as their number 2 unless they thought Shields stuff would play even worse in Texas, which would be true and would seem to go along with Maddon's thinking.
Yankees -110 3 Units
Minnesota sent the supposedly better pitcher (statistically) yesterday. They once again got a lead, allowed the Yankees to rally and then couldn't get a clutch hit. That is 6 consecutive playoff games between these two where Minnesota has scored first and lost, and they lost the game before that without scoring first. While also losing 10 straight postseason games.
Pavano has been slumping coming into the playoffs and could be in line for a clunker. He seemed to be tiring down the stretch and two big years of innings after 3' years of inactivity could be taking it's toll. Although he had a similar stretch at the end of last season before a nice start in the playoffs against NY I don't see him being successful tonight. His stuff plays very well for the Yankees lineup. He doesn't overpower you and they have enough of a track record against him to feel comfortable with his stuff and in the box vs him. Guys like Jeter and Granderson and Berkman can be overpowered but Pavano just doesn't do that.
As for the NY pitching I think Gardenhire will do the Yankees a favor if he puts Thome behind Young in the lineup. Thome is going to be the key to the game if that's the case because I can see Pettitte's tests with men on base coming after Mauer and Young bat as they are very good hitters who have had success against Andy. But Thome can be pitched to and is a DP candidate to snuff out rallies. His numbers are poor vs LHP and this is a spot where Morneau adding length to the middle of the order would have been huge. If Cuddyer had been batting behind Young it might have posed Andy a bigger problem since Cuddyer is also a dangerous hitter with success against Pettitte. And the reasoning behind it makes it more flawed because the Yankees have one LH reliever who they will use and Boone Logan will be pitching to Joe Mauer. Although they did use him to face Span as well I don't think they will ask him to go through Delmon Young so Thome/Cuddyer/Kubel would be facing a RHP no matter what order they are in since Wood, Robertson, Joba and Mo are all RHP. I look for Andy to go 6 before turning it over to Joba/Boone/Wood and Mo.
I actually think Duensing gives the Twins their best shot to win since he is a relative unknown to the Yanks with most guys seeing him only a couple of times and in relief. We'll see.
SF -155 2 Units
I like Lincecum on extra rest, I like Lowe to give up atleast 1 run through 5. I don't know if Atlanta can plate more than 2 runs in any case so I like SF. I think they have a fresher bullpen with a slightly more dangerous lineup. But I think Lincecum is absolutely electric tonight. I'm definitely staying up to watch this.
Texas +115 2 Units
I think this is a great matchup for Texas. They start with CJ Wilson going against a lineup that is a black hole after Longoria when facing a LHP. CJ Wilson is a very intelligent pitcher who understands pitching and making changes very well. He is an excellent study using video and after hearing his interviews on Sirius very often it is incredible how intelligent he is relative to other typical major leaguers. He understands how to pace himself and he has been very comfortable on the road. It appears he may have been a little worn down in some of his home starts down the stretch in the oppressive heat but on the road he has been very good, so good that with the exception of his walks he has been brilliant on the road. 63 hits in 89 innings? And he gets to face a team that doesn't hit for average and will probably have Baldelli and Shoppach starting as below average ML hitters, one of them at DH. On the other side we get Big Game James, who is really a lot like Edison Volquez and AJ Burnett. He gives up runs in bunches, he flashes the occasional gem to realize the potential is there to keep you wanting more, but in the end more often than not he disappoints. Texas is a good fastball hitting team and they seem to be hitting their stride much more than the Rays right now. I thought yesterday that Price would be able to overpower the Rangers lineup but that wasn't the case. Going from 95-96 with Price yesterday to Shields at a couple MPH's less should help their bats. I look for Cruz or Hamilton to turn one around with a couple guys on today. I'm shocked they didn't line up Garza as their number 2 unless they thought Shields stuff would play even worse in Texas, which would be true and would seem to go along with Maddon's thinking.
Yankees -110 3 Units
Minnesota sent the supposedly better pitcher (statistically) yesterday. They once again got a lead, allowed the Yankees to rally and then couldn't get a clutch hit. That is 6 consecutive playoff games between these two where Minnesota has scored first and lost, and they lost the game before that without scoring first. While also losing 10 straight postseason games.
Pavano has been slumping coming into the playoffs and could be in line for a clunker. He seemed to be tiring down the stretch and two big years of innings after 3' years of inactivity could be taking it's toll. Although he had a similar stretch at the end of last season before a nice start in the playoffs against NY I don't see him being successful tonight. His stuff plays very well for the Yankees lineup. He doesn't overpower you and they have enough of a track record against him to feel comfortable with his stuff and in the box vs him. Guys like Jeter and Granderson and Berkman can be overpowered but Pavano just doesn't do that.
As for the NY pitching I think Gardenhire will do the Yankees a favor if he puts Thome behind Young in the lineup. Thome is going to be the key to the game if that's the case because I can see Pettitte's tests with men on base coming after Mauer and Young bat as they are very good hitters who have had success against Andy. But Thome can be pitched to and is a DP candidate to snuff out rallies. His numbers are poor vs LHP and this is a spot where Morneau adding length to the middle of the order would have been huge. If Cuddyer had been batting behind Young it might have posed Andy a bigger problem since Cuddyer is also a dangerous hitter with success against Pettitte. And the reasoning behind it makes it more flawed because the Yankees have one LH reliever who they will use and Boone Logan will be pitching to Joe Mauer. Although they did use him to face Span as well I don't think they will ask him to go through Delmon Young so Thome/Cuddyer/Kubel would be facing a RHP no matter what order they are in since Wood, Robertson, Joba and Mo are all RHP. I look for Andy to go 6 before turning it over to Joba/Boone/Wood and Mo.
I actually think Duensing gives the Twins their best shot to win since he is a relative unknown to the Yanks with most guys seeing him only a couple of times and in relief. We'll see.
SF -155 2 Units
I like Lincecum on extra rest, I like Lowe to give up atleast 1 run through 5. I don't know if Atlanta can plate more than 2 runs in any case so I like SF. I think they have a fresher bullpen with a slightly more dangerous lineup. But I think Lincecum is absolutely electric tonight. I'm definitely staying up to watch this.
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