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Hey guys, thanks for the input yesterday. I liked doing the write ups because if my logic is off on something, someone can tell me about it, rather than just tell me the pick was wrong.
So, my #1 rule is don't bet with your heart, and tonight it may look like I am betting with it again (on a Phillies game, as a Phillies) fan. Here is the logic, aside from the heart.
I might even take the Phillies -1.5 in this game because:
Oswalt has been lights out in his last 10 games. The Phillies have gone 10-1 in Oswalt's 11 starts since they acquired him (first loss was to the Nats, 4ER, but this was on short rest, the day following his trade and travel). Since that game, Oswalt has posted 8 Wins in 10 starts, and over the last 2 months, a combined era of between 1.30 and 1.40. The Phillies offense is live, which we saw last night, and is the sole reason I covered the over.
On the other side of things. You have Jason Marquis. Marquis is somewhat of a journeyman at this point, and if Oswalt has been lights out, Marquis would be, say, lights on. Marquis' last outing is one he would like to forget, and probably will because it was so short. He lasted .1 innings, giving up 6ER on 6 hits and a walk. Ouch. In a combined 4 games, Marquis is 0-4 with and ERA over 12 against the Phillies, giving up 24 hits, 19 ER, and a whopping 10 walks in 13.2 innings. I didn't do the math all the way out, but that's a WHIP over 2.
The only reason I might lean towards taking the Phillies straight up (not -1.5) is the fact that Oswalt's outing might get cut short as for him to not rack up innings after they have already clinched. I think the Phillies win easily, and probably big, as the Phils will pounce early on Marquis.
Comments welcome, will add games later, for a parlay most likely.
So, my #1 rule is don't bet with your heart, and tonight it may look like I am betting with it again (on a Phillies game, as a Phillies) fan. Here is the logic, aside from the heart.
I might even take the Phillies -1.5 in this game because:
Oswalt has been lights out in his last 10 games. The Phillies have gone 10-1 in Oswalt's 11 starts since they acquired him (first loss was to the Nats, 4ER, but this was on short rest, the day following his trade and travel). Since that game, Oswalt has posted 8 Wins in 10 starts, and over the last 2 months, a combined era of between 1.30 and 1.40. The Phillies offense is live, which we saw last night, and is the sole reason I covered the over.
On the other side of things. You have Jason Marquis. Marquis is somewhat of a journeyman at this point, and if Oswalt has been lights out, Marquis would be, say, lights on. Marquis' last outing is one he would like to forget, and probably will because it was so short. He lasted .1 innings, giving up 6ER on 6 hits and a walk. Ouch. In a combined 4 games, Marquis is 0-4 with and ERA over 12 against the Phillies, giving up 24 hits, 19 ER, and a whopping 10 walks in 13.2 innings. I didn't do the math all the way out, but that's a WHIP over 2.
The only reason I might lean towards taking the Phillies straight up (not -1.5) is the fact that Oswalt's outing might get cut short as for him to not rack up innings after they have already clinched. I think the Phillies win easily, and probably big, as the Phils will pounce early on Marquis.
Comments welcome, will add games later, for a parlay most likely.
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