Tuesday

[Franchise]

A couple for tonight and one I just love and got in early.

Tampa/Detroit Under 8' -110 3 Units

Both teams have had their share of overs of late even though they really aren't hitting the ball. They have been fortunate to face some bad starters or be involved in a game where the closer gives up 2-3 to get to the total. Both teams are suffering from injuries and rosters that really don't provide the quality hitters to lengthen the lineup like typical AL lineups. On the hill we have two very different young pitchers, Hellickson will rely on command, more so than power and that should be a challenge for a free swinging Detroit team. Scherzer on the other hand is a power pitcher who gave the Rays problems two weeks ago even though he didn't have his best stuff. He has been great since he was recalled from the minors and if he is able to control his walks he should have success. His power and breaking ball are on the same level as Morrow who obviously had some success against the Jays. I'm shocked that this line moved up from an opening of 8 at some places.

I think I'll have a couple of more later.

[Franchise]

Adding

Arizona +130 2 units

Enright has been solid so far although he has walked a few too many batters to this point. In the minors he displayed much better control so there is room for improvement. He also gets a softer lineup with Braun and Hart likely both out as well as Edmonds out of town. Milwaukee is scrambling to field a lineup and placed Escobar (all other games at SS) and Inglett in the OF. Arizona has also been averaging nearly 6 runs a game vs LHP all season and on the road as well as nearly 7 in their last 4-5 starts vs LHP. I'm not sure how Manny Parra generates this generous of a line with the struggles he has had. The past two months the DBacks have had a very difficult schedule with nearly all their series against teams over .500. They have been very competitive when not facing top starters.

Toronto -125 2 units

Romero has been very solid since losing it for a couple of starts vs Boston and NY. Toronto is starting to hit up and down the lineup and playing with confidence. I have heard Toronto personnel talk several times on the radio about the work and growth their pitchers have made in their understanding of pitching and what they need to do to win. From what I have seen they really seem to be stepping it up a notch and if Romero can control the LHB in the Sox lineup I really like his chances for a gem. The past history of each pitcher points to a play on the Sox but I think Romero is improving and there are enough soft spots in the Boston lineup for him to be fine. As far as Dice K is concerned he has been good for the last month or so but with his elevated walk totals anygame can get out of hand and he doesn't have the stuff to blow away these jays hitters. Unless his off speed stuff is very sharp I see Toronto getting atleast 4 runs off HR's.


I also looked at the STL/Cinci over but Cueto has been pretty good vs STL and Garcia hasn't really given up many runs except his last outing. But with how many guys Garcia typically allows on base I see a few more poor starts coming. He's also well over his innings level from each year since 2006 (145 ip) and could hit the wall soon.

A note on the Yankees, Texiera is in NY with his wife and Cano will likely get the day off. That means if they will have either Granderson or Berkman in the lineup (who can't hit LHP) along with Pena for Cano and Cervelli (catching Burnett). That thins them out quite a bit. But Burnett has the lowest ERA in his wins and highest in his losses of any pitcher with atleast 5 wins or losses. So you never know what you will get.

I also looked hard at Minnesota or the total and Baker has been much worse in a few starts which have been on the road. And the White Sox have won 13 of 16 when Garcia's on the hill but I don't trust his performance either.

I also have no interest in trusting JA Happ or Mike Pelphrey with my money.

GLTA