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  • Thursday

    A couple for today after a nice night...Thanks guys.

    Toronto/Cleveland Under 8 3 Units

    Neither team has been hitting very well and I think the day game after a night game will give the advantage to the pitchers early. As long as Masterson doesn't get bombed I like my chances since Marcum has been fairly consistent and this is an offense he can keep in check. As for Masterson his big problems are typically location and walks. Since Toronto shows such little plate discipline throughout their order I think this is an ideal matchup for him. If he is on, he shuts them down. If he is erratic he should generate enough swing and misses on bad pitches out of the zone to stay in good counts and avoid walks. And if he avoids walks the homers he gives up are less damaging. Both pens have been better of late and I look for a 2-1 or 3-2 game being handed to the bullpens in the 7th and 8th innings.


    Side note...both teams are sending out a few of their Triple A caliber hitters. Donald, Nix, Marte and Duncan for CLE and Molina, Wise and Green for Toronto.

    Washington +120 2 Units

    Mets got in very late in Washington after their game ended in PR last night after midnight. Johan has been struggling and Livan has been rested his last two starts (under 100 pitches). I think Washington jumps on a lackluster Mets team who will likely be limited offensively with Pagan and Reyes likely being out of the lineup.

    Yankees -2' around -120 2 Units
    NY has been great for CC and in general as very large favorites (especially against the RL's). NY averages about 2.5 more runs a game vs LHP and CC clearly is in better form and the better pitcher. NY should pop a couple of HR's (with the wind blowing out) but since they have been on fire up and down the lineup I would rather play the RL than risk them not covering the total on their own. I see NY 6-1, 7-2 type of game to get healthy.
    MLB
    May
    Overall 43-43 +5.5 Units
    Sides 19-22 -0.0 Units
    Total 24-21 +5.5 Units

    April
    Overall 61-44 +47.1 Units
    Sides 28-28 +4.0 Units
    Totals 33-16 +43.1 Units

  • #2
    Also strongly considering a play on the Reds today. Silva has been very good mostly due to an exceptional walk rate and some luck on batted balls. I'd like to see what the lineups look like before I commit to this game.

    Yankees -2' RL played at -115
    MLB
    May
    Overall 43-43 +5.5 Units
    Sides 19-22 -0.0 Units
    Total 24-21 +5.5 Units

    April
    Overall 61-44 +47.1 Units
    Sides 28-28 +4.0 Units
    Totals 33-16 +43.1 Units

    Comment


    • #3
      Thank you Shawn Marcum...walk, walk, 3 run HR on 1-2 count leads to 6 runs with 2 outs. Nice.

      Added

      Cincy +130 2 Units
      MLB
      May
      Overall 43-43 +5.5 Units
      Sides 19-22 -0.0 Units
      Total 24-21 +5.5 Units

      April
      Overall 61-44 +47.1 Units
      Sides 28-28 +4.0 Units
      Totals 33-16 +43.1 Units

      Comment


      • #4
        Good hit (and fade) on that under.
        NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
        MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
        MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
        NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
        Updated on 01/13/18
        ---
        One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

        Comment


        • #5
          Thanks...I didn't like my chances after the 6 run 4th. For tonight there are two more.

          TB/Minnesota Under 8 2 Units

          Pavano and Niemman have been terrific and haven't beaten themselves. Target Field has been underrated as a pitcher's park but for these two it's great with it's spacious outfield and guys who can run them down. Both pitchers trend toward fly balls a little and that gives them a slight advantage. TB is also really struggling to hit the ball lately. A lot of their offense has been a result of walks leading to runs. The one potential issue and what keeps me from playing the Twins is the ridiculous rate at which Pavano gives up steals. TB could cause problems for him in that manner but atleast he may get help from Mauer in that department.

          I strongly considered the Texas/LAA under but Wilson's walks and the strange (to me) seemingly strong interest in the over have kept me away from it.
          MLB
          May
          Overall 43-43 +5.5 Units
          Sides 19-22 -0.0 Units
          Total 24-21 +5.5 Units

          April
          Overall 61-44 +47.1 Units
          Sides 28-28 +4.0 Units
          Totals 33-16 +43.1 Units

          Comment


          • #6
            GL...I played both unders that you just mentioned.

            I think LAA/Texas should be a duel, but you never know either as Texas can explode easily. Both pitchers got rocked last time out the last time these two teams pitched. Small play for me and like the minny under better.

            Comment

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