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ytd 83-91 (-6.44 units)
LA Angels +101
2 units
I was going to skip all 3 afternoon games, but then I noticed a pretty significant line drop in the DET/LAA game, against a slight public majority on Detroit.
I looked for a reason that this line dropped pretty hard, and found it.
Escobarf seems to have the Tigers number. 8-0 lifetime against them with an ERA of 2.10, including 1-0 last year with 8 shutout innings pitched, so it's not all from when the Tigers were ****ty.
Then I found a second. The Tigers are 11-8, but look who they've played. 6 vs TOR (3-3 against them), 6 vs KC (4-2 against them), 3 vs BAL (2-1 against them), 3 vs CHW (1-2 against them) and 1 vs LAA (1-0 against them).
A good record, but considering that they only have a winning record vs KC and Baltimore (well 1-0 vs LAA, but 1 game is insufficient data to conclude anything), it may be a bit of a smoke screen.
That alone would not be enough for me to make the play, but combining their record and the teams they've beaten, with the extremely average play I've seen from them on the field so far this year, their extremely average bullpen to this point (including some guys who just BLOW like Fernando Rodney), and Escobarf's apparent dominance over them, I see absolutely no reason at all that they should be a road fave against a quality opponent at this point in the season.
Oh yea, the Angels are 8-3 at home as well this year.
Incorrect favorite IMO, and I think all of the above things combined are plenty more than enough to justify a play on the Angels this afternoon as a home dog.
LA Angels +101
2 units
I was going to skip all 3 afternoon games, but then I noticed a pretty significant line drop in the DET/LAA game, against a slight public majority on Detroit.
I looked for a reason that this line dropped pretty hard, and found it.
Escobarf seems to have the Tigers number. 8-0 lifetime against them with an ERA of 2.10, including 1-0 last year with 8 shutout innings pitched, so it's not all from when the Tigers were ****ty.
Then I found a second. The Tigers are 11-8, but look who they've played. 6 vs TOR (3-3 against them), 6 vs KC (4-2 against them), 3 vs BAL (2-1 against them), 3 vs CHW (1-2 against them) and 1 vs LAA (1-0 against them).
A good record, but considering that they only have a winning record vs KC and Baltimore (well 1-0 vs LAA, but 1 game is insufficient data to conclude anything), it may be a bit of a smoke screen.
That alone would not be enough for me to make the play, but combining their record and the teams they've beaten, with the extremely average play I've seen from them on the field so far this year, their extremely average bullpen to this point (including some guys who just BLOW like Fernando Rodney), and Escobarf's apparent dominance over them, I see absolutely no reason at all that they should be a road fave against a quality opponent at this point in the season.
Oh yea, the Angels are 8-3 at home as well this year.
Incorrect favorite IMO, and I think all of the above things combined are plenty more than enough to justify a play on the Angels this afternoon as a home dog.
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