Baseball betting strategy

[powerpress74]

Im fairly new to betting on baseball, I do realize that betting "systems" are a dime a dozen. But, I have run across a mehtod of betting that basicly makes the 1.5 run line into a 1 run line. Heres an example:

Straight bet (Angels -130): bet 56.53 to win 43.25.
Run line bet (Angels -1.5, +160): bet 43.25 to win 69.20.
Total bet (Angels -1): bet 100 to win 112.45.

So now you're in a situation where if the Angels win by a run you're breaking even. If they win by two or more runs you're getting $112 for every $100 you bet compared to the $77 you would have won for a straight bet at -130. You've essentially turned a -130 favorite into a +112 wager.

Now, I know you're probably thinking that if you believe the Angels are going to win by two runs or more (what it would take to make this bet pay out) then why not just play the straight run line wager and get $160 back for your $100 bet? Well, that's a decent point and you should feel free to do that. But the beauty of the -1.0 run line is that it eliminates bad beats if your team loses by a single run. Gambling is all about risk management and, in my professional opinion and experience, using a -1.0 run line is an exceptional way to maximize profit while limiting exposure.

So I have done this method the past 5 days, I have bet on every game and took all the -1.5 run favorites and bet the money line with it. I am 2 units up. Seems to be a grind so far. What does everyone think about it?

[BoilerBacker]

All depends on the juice differences between ML and RL, whether the team is home or not, etc, etc.

About 25% of games are one run games, which my gut tells me will kill this system. Just my gut...I would have to think about it.

GL with it and welcome to the forum.

:beerbang:

[powerpress74]

Well, if you win by 1 run, its a push because you are betting the money line with the run line seperately. Typically the run line is a + number and the money line will be a - number, so this pushes the money line to a more positve number overall. I guess the best thing abot this strategy is that you get the favorite for a better price. TY for the welcome.

[gadfly36]

I understand your thinking here, but if you have a day where more dogs come through it could wipe out any gains you have made. By your own admission you have bet every game for the last week and are only up 2 units. Have you gone back and checked out how you would have done just betting either rl or ml solely?

This system in my opinion, at best would let you finish the year even or down a little. There are way too many upside down favorites in baseball for this to win in the long run.

All that said, welcome to the board and keep on thinking out of the box.

[yomonte]

This method has to be worrysome. You would be 29-42 on the -1.5 on the runline with + results could posibbly be +2 units. One bad day and your finished and that could be soon. And your lucky its only the last few days cause if you did this from the beginning, you would have been broke on the fourth day of opening week. You would have done good that Monday opening day, but by Thursday, you would have given up on this. And on Friday, only 5 of 15 games would have paid on that line. And only 4 of 15 on Sat.

[Kevin]

You'd have to have a massive bankroll because a **** streak (which will happen) could wipe you out.

It's very interesting though and I'd love to follow along to see how it plays out.