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After a nice day saturday (6-0 +14 units) and a nice stretch in the last few days I feel like I have a pretty good read on a few of these matchups. Here goes...
Colorado +130 3 Units
I like the pitching matchup as the lefty will be able to minimize the impact of McCann and Heyward if they are in the lineup. He throws a high percentage of offspeed pitches and should be able to attack the lefties and Glaus with that rather effectively. If Chipper is in the lineup he will be the key to a strong outing by Smith. I think his stuff will continue to play well in the NL especially when he isn't facing a heavy RH power team like Arizona or Chicago. I also have real concerns about Jurrjens. I thought he would struggle with an injury after his increased workload last year and his troubles in the spring. I think that was on display against SD although that got out of control. I expect a LH heavy Colorado team to score some runs and possibly outslug Atlanta if that needs to be done.
Milwaukee/Washington over 10 -110
I haven't locked this in but am leaning toward the over. Both pitchers are guys I am looking to go against because I am not impressed with their repertoire's and I think the loss of velocity as they age will really show up. Both have been a little better early in the year recently but this year they have both been off and haven't gotten deep in games. If either gets knocked out early that could cause a lot of problems since both pen's have struggled. I don't see either guy going 6+ allowing 2 runs or less. I want to check a few more things before I lock this in.
Cubs/Dodgers
I'm leaning toward a 2 teamer to reduce the juice on these two matchups. Wandy could be injured and Dempster should be able to work through the weak Astros lineup if he throws strikes. If the wind is blowing out that will help the Cubs since Wandy is more of a flyball pitcher. As for Zito he has faced two of the worst offenses in the league so far and the Dodgers should have their regular lineup on a Sunday after sending the B team out saturday vs Lincecum. SF also has injury issues and Kershaw should be facing a weak lineup on a team that doesn't walk much (his biggest problem). He also had arguably his best start ever against them (7 ip 13 K's last april). I may go with a first 5 play though to stay away from the 2 bullpens.
Cards -1' 3 units
Mets bullpen is spent and Maine isn't going 7 or 8 effectively. Depending on how Manuel plays it I expect Maine to either get left out there to get crushed if he isn't effective early or 1 young bullpen arm with options gets burned out in long relief if they are behind. Either way I expect the Cards to score runs. On the other side we get Wainwright who is a pretty safe bet to get the Cards through the 7th effectively like he has been doing since midway through last season. The long game will also affect the Cards less since they use their bench on a more regular basis. On a side note Maine has also come out and said he is going back to his old game plans of just throwing hard and not worrying about where it goes instead of focusing on command as he has been doing since last year based on direction from the pitching coach and Manuel. I don't see this working out too well against a disciplined team with plenty of guys who can go deep.
Tampa or under
I expect Garza to pitch well as he has been pretty good vs Boston and at Fenway and this is a more limited Boston lineup than in recent seasons. Lester also hasn't been real sharp so far but he has really good at home in his career and has been good vs Tampa. I see a low scoring Tampa win but I want to see the lineups before I go one way or the other.
If anyone likes the longer writeups just let me know. I wanted to get a good look at the games and had the time to put it to paper. I think there are some very intriuging matchups on the rest of the card but in my eyes it a lot of similar pitchers and similar lineups. Tough calls that look to be right around the number and not worth the cash.
glta
:beerbang:
Colorado +130 3 Units
I like the pitching matchup as the lefty will be able to minimize the impact of McCann and Heyward if they are in the lineup. He throws a high percentage of offspeed pitches and should be able to attack the lefties and Glaus with that rather effectively. If Chipper is in the lineup he will be the key to a strong outing by Smith. I think his stuff will continue to play well in the NL especially when he isn't facing a heavy RH power team like Arizona or Chicago. I also have real concerns about Jurrjens. I thought he would struggle with an injury after his increased workload last year and his troubles in the spring. I think that was on display against SD although that got out of control. I expect a LH heavy Colorado team to score some runs and possibly outslug Atlanta if that needs to be done.
Milwaukee/Washington over 10 -110
I haven't locked this in but am leaning toward the over. Both pitchers are guys I am looking to go against because I am not impressed with their repertoire's and I think the loss of velocity as they age will really show up. Both have been a little better early in the year recently but this year they have both been off and haven't gotten deep in games. If either gets knocked out early that could cause a lot of problems since both pen's have struggled. I don't see either guy going 6+ allowing 2 runs or less. I want to check a few more things before I lock this in.
Cubs/Dodgers
I'm leaning toward a 2 teamer to reduce the juice on these two matchups. Wandy could be injured and Dempster should be able to work through the weak Astros lineup if he throws strikes. If the wind is blowing out that will help the Cubs since Wandy is more of a flyball pitcher. As for Zito he has faced two of the worst offenses in the league so far and the Dodgers should have their regular lineup on a Sunday after sending the B team out saturday vs Lincecum. SF also has injury issues and Kershaw should be facing a weak lineup on a team that doesn't walk much (his biggest problem). He also had arguably his best start ever against them (7 ip 13 K's last april). I may go with a first 5 play though to stay away from the 2 bullpens.
Cards -1' 3 units
Mets bullpen is spent and Maine isn't going 7 or 8 effectively. Depending on how Manuel plays it I expect Maine to either get left out there to get crushed if he isn't effective early or 1 young bullpen arm with options gets burned out in long relief if they are behind. Either way I expect the Cards to score runs. On the other side we get Wainwright who is a pretty safe bet to get the Cards through the 7th effectively like he has been doing since midway through last season. The long game will also affect the Cards less since they use their bench on a more regular basis. On a side note Maine has also come out and said he is going back to his old game plans of just throwing hard and not worrying about where it goes instead of focusing on command as he has been doing since last year based on direction from the pitching coach and Manuel. I don't see this working out too well against a disciplined team with plenty of guys who can go deep.
Tampa or under
I expect Garza to pitch well as he has been pretty good vs Boston and at Fenway and this is a more limited Boston lineup than in recent seasons. Lester also hasn't been real sharp so far but he has really good at home in his career and has been good vs Tampa. I see a low scoring Tampa win but I want to see the lineups before I go one way or the other.
If anyone likes the longer writeups just let me know. I wanted to get a good look at the games and had the time to put it to paper. I think there are some very intriuging matchups on the rest of the card but in my eyes it a lot of similar pitchers and similar lineups. Tough calls that look to be right around the number and not worth the cash.
glta
:beerbang:
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