value plays

[hodown]

Still in the midst of learning how to invest in baseball, and wanted to seek some advice. In the long run, is it worth making plays solely on value? For example, Toronto and Chicago seemed to be catching real high lines yesterday, so I see the value in the line. However, I didn't really have a lean either way as to who would actually win. Same with Pettite vs Lackey a few days ago. In a game that I see as 50/50 and have no real lean, I can see the value in Pettite catchiing +118. So is it appropriate to make the play or not? I stupidly made a play on Marquis catching big odds at home against Hamels and that didn't work well, but I thought I saw value. Hopefully someone can see where I'm coming from here, and any advice is appreciated.

[gadfly36]

the only advice i can offer here is what i do. if i cant decide on a winner i wont play the game. imo +118 is not really a value if youre unsure of who should win. obviously you will not always be right but if youre just betting on value youre really guessing and thats not a good way to win.

[hodown]

Agreed, but I think it's hard in baseball to look at a clear underdog (say +130 or higher) and say, "that's a winner." However I could look at an underdog and say, "they have a good shot." Then I look at the Lackey vs Pettite game and wonder how anyone can see either team having a distinct advantage there, and how anyone could actually play a side, especially the sox who were laying -138.

[akatdrake]

hodown, I'm with gad because I'm just learning as well, but if you play solely on "value," you'll be betting a lot of games, and you'll probably be down on the season. Even the best teams in the league at seasons-end have lost 60-70 games, and if the best team is a public-team like the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, you have a lot of chalk losses in there. For instance, in the last three years, the Red Sox have compiled a record of 197-144, but only up 15.6 units!

If I am not crazy about a game, I'll lay off. After all, this betting season does last until October. It's only mid-April!

Yesterday I went against my philosophy and forced action. I looked over the card yesterday morning and actually said out loud, "Wow, I don't really like anything." I ended up forcing five games and went 0-fer. Don't do that.

[hodown]

I follow you guys. So to recap, don't just bet value, and don't force. So what are some things about a side that will make you say, "wow, I really like that side." And do you guys ever see a team that you like but refuse to play because of the line? I'd imagine that's where runline comes in.

[Badger]

Great question Hodown. And I think Gadfly and Akadrake have given you great advice already ... but, bottom line it all comes down to your own preference/experiences with what you're willing to risk.

I think Gadfly's advice (and akadrake's too, but only after an 0-fer) of walking away if you don't have a great feel one way or another is EXCELLENT. There are so many games and totals that you're bond to find some mistake, or maybe a few, but if you're starting to bet on value alone you'll find yourself on 5-6 games a night and making the action instead of picking your spots.

To me "value" is a relative term. To me when I think value, I'm taking underdogs that aren't getting enough credit by oddsmakers (IMO), or chalks that aren't getting enough credit and aren't yet priced too high off the board. There's no exact science either. You go with your gut and learn to walk away and live to bet another day.

Specifically, I don't think your wager on Marquis the other day was stupid. It turned out to be stupid, but at the +140 or whatever he was catching against Hammels (who's been struggling) was good value. You lost, but it happens in baseball.

Now Pettitte at +118 is value, but not against the Red Sox, IMO.

Tonight, specifically, I think there's great value on San Francisco. Jonathan Sanchez can deal and is facing a Braves team already down Chipper Jones, McCain and McClouth. Still only at -109, I'm all over this as a "value" for my money, but if it was -120 or higher (which is where I think it should be) I would pass.

My advice in a nutshell is to just stay with it. Pick your spots where you see value and go. Just remember, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose and sometimes it rains.

And there's no crying in baseball.

Alright, cheesy baseball quotes are over.

[akatdrake]

Agreed. Feel free to continue the questions.

Last year was my first full year betting baseball without quitting, and I ended up down 63 units. It's definitely a work in progress.

[DukiesBaby]

I just had a discussion about value with my friend the other day, cause i am betting an underdog system this year. i am sticking to it, but he was mentioning that as you come along with basebal, you start to find out there are like 5-10 pitchers in the league its just not a good idea to fade... 3 guys in my mind king felix, lincecum, and halladay, (he has winning record vs every team in baseball in his career, boston too i think if not he is .500) but there are pitchers that are public favs that also are very prone to having poor outings, which imo is good value in right spots to fade them, josh beckett is a guy who comes to mind, big name pitcher who struggles vs yankees and tampa at times, and a few others, also cole hamels, zambrano, and some people might not agree with this one but cc sabathia, he to me just isnt what he used to be 2 years ago, find good situation u could be on benifical side of a +150 or better

[Chris]

In baseball you have to dig deeper than just basing your play on starting pitching alone. You have to look at bullpens and how rested or used they are and the matchups vs those teams that they play. and IMHO keep a close eye on where matchbook adjust there lines vs the entire market.

[yomonte]

Good advice by Badger and Chris. Prior to today, I have bet three games. Some days I won't even play. Playing to have action and betting 5 to 6 games a night will bankrupt you. Pick your spots, and like they said, you won't win them all. But you will be there at the end of the season.

Chris, I think Pinny should be added along with Matchbook.

And as they said above, WAIT for it, WAIT for it

[hodown]

Trying to take on that advice. Nothing I hate more than having a lean but not playing, then watching it hit. But what's even worse is having a lean and playing it, then regretting the play when you lose. Baseball is tough but I'm trying to be as picky as possible. I appreciate all of the help.

[yomonte]

Nothing I hate more than having a lean but not playing, then watching it hit. But what's even worse is having a lean and playing it, then regretting the play when you lose.

LOL, only speaking for myself, but that **** happens to me all season. Its like the fish that got away. And yes, I hate it. GL man