Tweet
This is getting a little poor, and embarrassing. What pisses me off the most, is that AS SOON as the freakin games start, I can identify 2 or 3 every night that I should have passed on (****ty A's last night against undefeated at home Beckett, even catching runs, Padres at any price on the road vs anyone, and expecting the ****ty Pirates to do anything worthwhile), and usually at least 1 i should have played (Natinals last night against a horribly struggling Brewers team).
I would play Tampa every single time at that price I did yesterday in that situation. It just didn't work out yesterday as it seemed the Yanks were the ones who came prepared to lay the wood, when it should have been TB. I also would play Houston at +145 again every time in that situation, and I feel 100% like it was the right play, as it took the -155 Flubs 13 innings to produce more than 1 run of offense.
That's how it goes. Still trying to work it out, although I do feel like I'm realizing what I'm doing wrong a little day by day and getting there, just like a hitter trying to come out of a slump i guess, lol.
One thing I am doing today is trying to ride the momentum a few teams are on, which is something i definitely did more of early in the year with much success, and while i am still considering stats, they will be a smaller part of my decision making, as unless they are real strong in a team's favor (Philly over Arizona last night for example), they seem to not matter as much as they do matter.
ytd 562-561 (-43.44 units)
Braves -117
Just gonna keep riding the hot team here. Sure Florida has won a bunch of games lately too, but over crappy SD, and over what I feel is a slumping Dodgers team and the pitching of Clayton Kershaw (a lefty, which Florida has a super record against), and Jason Schmidt, who isn't nearly ready to pitch competitively against a good MLB offense.
This game would have been a no play for me with 2 good pitchers going, but after seeing how badly the Braves pounded Nolasco last year, combined with how hot they have been, I decided to take a shot, opposite the line move, and back the hot Braves with Jurrjens, who probably should be about 14-3 this year had he gotten any run support at all.
This is a battle for 2nd in the division, and I feel the Braves are the team more equipped to take over 2nd and at least make a run at either Philly or the wild card, and i'm sure they know that needs to start tonight against a team they are looking to pass.
Tampon Bay +132
Being stubborn, I guess. Gonna give the team who has won 25 of their last 31 home games a stab as a decently sized dog though. It seems on paper this game favors the Yanks, but I'm sure some others did too that the Tampons won at home in that stretch and over the last 2 seasons in general when they have been a fabulous home team.
NY Mets +122
I know I said yesTURDay that today might be a good spot to play Colorado....and statistically it is with Colorado being 15-7 when changing from facing a lefty to facing a righty, and Marquis having such a great year.
But that doesn't factor in momentum, of which the Mets are rolling in right now, Marquis having a blister that is not allowing him to pitch how he normally does, although he will "give it a shot" today from what I read, and Colorado still having a garbage bullpen.
I was also unaware until this morning that Pelfrey seems to own the Rockies, having shut them out the last 2 times he faced them. My play is not based on that, but I suppose it can't be bad.
About 85% are on Colorado and Marquis, yet the line opened at -140 at Pinnacle and has since dropped to -125 there. Seems some others may be letting their money ride with the seemingly revived Mets as well.
NATINALS +177
Another "riding the momentum" type play. The ****ty Natinals are impossibly to handicap statistically, really, because they have sucked so bad for the entire season, that even if they are turning things around under new manager Jim Riggleman, it would be nearly impossible to bring their W/L stats up to any respectable level in any situation to tell where they might fare well the rest of the year that way, or they've performed well in certain spots, only to have the bullpen blow games for em, skewing the numbers.
I do think though, that just about everyone in the world will be on the Brewers today just because "they can't lose 2 in a row to the ****ty Natinals".
Maybe they won't lose 2 straight to the ****ty Natinals, but I can give you plenty of reasons why they COULD.
The Natinals are hot, scoring 14 yesterday, averaging 6.6 rpg their last 5 games, winning 3 straight and scoring double digits 2 of those 3 times. Sure they could fall flat on their faces again tonight like they normally do, but someone please tell me why Carlos Villanueva, a reliever who hasn't pitched more than 3 innings in any game this year, and a struggling Brewers team who has gone 7-15 in their last 22 games is all of a sudden going to step up and make a stand tonight and right the ship.
Facts are that the feeling is probably pretty bad around the Brewers club house right now, and their pitching has flat out sucked.
The public is absolutely hounding this game at nearly 90%, yet the line has either not moved, or moved slightly towards the Natinals at just about every book.
I'll probably be one of 3 people on earth doing so, but I'm taking a chance on the big underdog to keep it rolling here, as i think they have a very good shot to do so against a Brewers team seemingly heading nowhere but down.
Texas -120
Detroit is struggling badly, and has been horrible on the road. The oddsmakers barely even moved the line when swine flu Padilla was scratched and they inserted long reliever Mathis. The Texas pen, believe it or not, has been superior, tearing their way from somewhere in the 20's to #9 in the era rankings over the last month or so, and I'm going to ride them tonight against a team who is not playing well. I guess you could say Texas has the momentum, and Detroit does not....
Houston -102
Often times I like to back a team after a walk off win or a big comeback that falls just short, but not in this case. Too much of a disadvantage in the pitching match-up tonight with Oswalt being great lately, even on the road, and Dumpster coming off an injury and possibly being a bit rusty. Even though the Flubs won in walk off fashion, it could hardly be said that their offense is "rolling" or "hot", having mustered 1 run in the first 12 innings on a solo home run. Doesn't seem like the spot for Oswalt to fumble on what has been an impressive stretch of starts, while there's a much better shot Dumpster shows some rust, imo.
Twins -129
Buehrle throws a perfect game and now his team is dogged, with the public pounding the White Sux into the ground? And not just like +102 dogged, but more like +121 (@ Pinnacle), a line that has actually moved 4 cents in the Twins favor since opening, despite 76% on the Sox. Wonder who the oddsmakers like tonight?
St Louis -118
Like I said, I think the LA Dodgers are heading for a slump, and what better time than now against a St Louis team who needs every single win? Wainwright has been outstanding, while the same cannot be said for Billingsley as of late. The additions of Holliday and Derosa were huge for St Louis, and I'm thinking their offense keeps it rolling tonight against a pitcher who has been suspect in his last few starts until doing half decent against the ****ty Speds last time, which I'm ignoring, because well, it was against the ****ty Speds.
Tribe +200
Jered Weaver has been really nothing short of less than average to plain bad lately, and the Tribe offense is rolling. Even though I'm not sure what I'm getting on the other side with Huff, I don't really see why Cleveland shouldn't continue to have some offensive success tonight, or why they are such a big underdog, as it seems they are every bit as hot as LAA right now, and Weaver hasn't really done anything in forever to prove he's the guy to slow down a hot offense. At 2/1 odds i see this game as a complete coin flip and worth every penny of taking a shot at it.
JAYS +112
Seattle is really tanking here lately, while the Jays look to be building some steam for a late run at something, although I'm not sure what, lol. They have 10+ hits in 3 straight games though, and that's pretty impressive, and even more impressive is the ass whoopin they put on Felix Hernandez last night.
Washbum has been tough, and Seattle is statistically good at bouncing back in game 2 of a series after losing game 1, but I'm going against these two things because overachieving Seattle has zero momentum right now, while the underachieving Jays seem to have all the momentum in the world it would seem.
SF Giants -130
The Pirates are 17-37 on the road, and I'm annoyed that I played them last night, and will not be doing so again the rest of the year (on the road), unless the show some improvement there, which i doubt they will.
SF, while sucking on the road themselves, is 32-15 at home, putting them in the company of Boston (34-15), NY Yankees (35-17) and the LA Dodgers (34-17) with the best home records in baseball.
Real fair price, given those numbers alone, so I have to suck it up and back Zito, especially knowing the Pirates avg only 3.22 runs per game vs LHP and the Giants need every single game right now, especially home games against the Pirates that they should win.
Tribe/LA Angels over 9.5 -110
Two hot hitting offenses, two struggling pitchers, and 2 below average bullpens, even if they both have shown some improvement lately from the complete disaster they both were in the beginning of the year. They're still #26 and #29 for the season. Just not going to over think this one.
2 units each
Sorry so late. I got stuck in traffic picking my daughter up at gymnastics....
I would play Tampa every single time at that price I did yesterday in that situation. It just didn't work out yesterday as it seemed the Yanks were the ones who came prepared to lay the wood, when it should have been TB. I also would play Houston at +145 again every time in that situation, and I feel 100% like it was the right play, as it took the -155 Flubs 13 innings to produce more than 1 run of offense.
That's how it goes. Still trying to work it out, although I do feel like I'm realizing what I'm doing wrong a little day by day and getting there, just like a hitter trying to come out of a slump i guess, lol.
One thing I am doing today is trying to ride the momentum a few teams are on, which is something i definitely did more of early in the year with much success, and while i am still considering stats, they will be a smaller part of my decision making, as unless they are real strong in a team's favor (Philly over Arizona last night for example), they seem to not matter as much as they do matter.
ytd 562-561 (-43.44 units)
Braves -117
Just gonna keep riding the hot team here. Sure Florida has won a bunch of games lately too, but over crappy SD, and over what I feel is a slumping Dodgers team and the pitching of Clayton Kershaw (a lefty, which Florida has a super record against), and Jason Schmidt, who isn't nearly ready to pitch competitively against a good MLB offense.
This game would have been a no play for me with 2 good pitchers going, but after seeing how badly the Braves pounded Nolasco last year, combined with how hot they have been, I decided to take a shot, opposite the line move, and back the hot Braves with Jurrjens, who probably should be about 14-3 this year had he gotten any run support at all.
This is a battle for 2nd in the division, and I feel the Braves are the team more equipped to take over 2nd and at least make a run at either Philly or the wild card, and i'm sure they know that needs to start tonight against a team they are looking to pass.
Tampon Bay +132
Being stubborn, I guess. Gonna give the team who has won 25 of their last 31 home games a stab as a decently sized dog though. It seems on paper this game favors the Yanks, but I'm sure some others did too that the Tampons won at home in that stretch and over the last 2 seasons in general when they have been a fabulous home team.
NY Mets +122
I know I said yesTURDay that today might be a good spot to play Colorado....and statistically it is with Colorado being 15-7 when changing from facing a lefty to facing a righty, and Marquis having such a great year.
But that doesn't factor in momentum, of which the Mets are rolling in right now, Marquis having a blister that is not allowing him to pitch how he normally does, although he will "give it a shot" today from what I read, and Colorado still having a garbage bullpen.
I was also unaware until this morning that Pelfrey seems to own the Rockies, having shut them out the last 2 times he faced them. My play is not based on that, but I suppose it can't be bad.
About 85% are on Colorado and Marquis, yet the line opened at -140 at Pinnacle and has since dropped to -125 there. Seems some others may be letting their money ride with the seemingly revived Mets as well.
NATINALS +177
Another "riding the momentum" type play. The ****ty Natinals are impossibly to handicap statistically, really, because they have sucked so bad for the entire season, that even if they are turning things around under new manager Jim Riggleman, it would be nearly impossible to bring their W/L stats up to any respectable level in any situation to tell where they might fare well the rest of the year that way, or they've performed well in certain spots, only to have the bullpen blow games for em, skewing the numbers.
I do think though, that just about everyone in the world will be on the Brewers today just because "they can't lose 2 in a row to the ****ty Natinals".
Maybe they won't lose 2 straight to the ****ty Natinals, but I can give you plenty of reasons why they COULD.
The Natinals are hot, scoring 14 yesterday, averaging 6.6 rpg their last 5 games, winning 3 straight and scoring double digits 2 of those 3 times. Sure they could fall flat on their faces again tonight like they normally do, but someone please tell me why Carlos Villanueva, a reliever who hasn't pitched more than 3 innings in any game this year, and a struggling Brewers team who has gone 7-15 in their last 22 games is all of a sudden going to step up and make a stand tonight and right the ship.
Facts are that the feeling is probably pretty bad around the Brewers club house right now, and their pitching has flat out sucked.
The public is absolutely hounding this game at nearly 90%, yet the line has either not moved, or moved slightly towards the Natinals at just about every book.
I'll probably be one of 3 people on earth doing so, but I'm taking a chance on the big underdog to keep it rolling here, as i think they have a very good shot to do so against a Brewers team seemingly heading nowhere but down.
Texas -120
Detroit is struggling badly, and has been horrible on the road. The oddsmakers barely even moved the line when swine flu Padilla was scratched and they inserted long reliever Mathis. The Texas pen, believe it or not, has been superior, tearing their way from somewhere in the 20's to #9 in the era rankings over the last month or so, and I'm going to ride them tonight against a team who is not playing well. I guess you could say Texas has the momentum, and Detroit does not....
Houston -102
Often times I like to back a team after a walk off win or a big comeback that falls just short, but not in this case. Too much of a disadvantage in the pitching match-up tonight with Oswalt being great lately, even on the road, and Dumpster coming off an injury and possibly being a bit rusty. Even though the Flubs won in walk off fashion, it could hardly be said that their offense is "rolling" or "hot", having mustered 1 run in the first 12 innings on a solo home run. Doesn't seem like the spot for Oswalt to fumble on what has been an impressive stretch of starts, while there's a much better shot Dumpster shows some rust, imo.
Twins -129
Buehrle throws a perfect game and now his team is dogged, with the public pounding the White Sux into the ground? And not just like +102 dogged, but more like +121 (@ Pinnacle), a line that has actually moved 4 cents in the Twins favor since opening, despite 76% on the Sox. Wonder who the oddsmakers like tonight?
St Louis -118
Like I said, I think the LA Dodgers are heading for a slump, and what better time than now against a St Louis team who needs every single win? Wainwright has been outstanding, while the same cannot be said for Billingsley as of late. The additions of Holliday and Derosa were huge for St Louis, and I'm thinking their offense keeps it rolling tonight against a pitcher who has been suspect in his last few starts until doing half decent against the ****ty Speds last time, which I'm ignoring, because well, it was against the ****ty Speds.
Tribe +200
Jered Weaver has been really nothing short of less than average to plain bad lately, and the Tribe offense is rolling. Even though I'm not sure what I'm getting on the other side with Huff, I don't really see why Cleveland shouldn't continue to have some offensive success tonight, or why they are such a big underdog, as it seems they are every bit as hot as LAA right now, and Weaver hasn't really done anything in forever to prove he's the guy to slow down a hot offense. At 2/1 odds i see this game as a complete coin flip and worth every penny of taking a shot at it.
JAYS +112
Seattle is really tanking here lately, while the Jays look to be building some steam for a late run at something, although I'm not sure what, lol. They have 10+ hits in 3 straight games though, and that's pretty impressive, and even more impressive is the ass whoopin they put on Felix Hernandez last night.
Washbum has been tough, and Seattle is statistically good at bouncing back in game 2 of a series after losing game 1, but I'm going against these two things because overachieving Seattle has zero momentum right now, while the underachieving Jays seem to have all the momentum in the world it would seem.
SF Giants -130
The Pirates are 17-37 on the road, and I'm annoyed that I played them last night, and will not be doing so again the rest of the year (on the road), unless the show some improvement there, which i doubt they will.
SF, while sucking on the road themselves, is 32-15 at home, putting them in the company of Boston (34-15), NY Yankees (35-17) and the LA Dodgers (34-17) with the best home records in baseball.
Real fair price, given those numbers alone, so I have to suck it up and back Zito, especially knowing the Pirates avg only 3.22 runs per game vs LHP and the Giants need every single game right now, especially home games against the Pirates that they should win.
Tribe/LA Angels over 9.5 -110
Two hot hitting offenses, two struggling pitchers, and 2 below average bullpens, even if they both have shown some improvement lately from the complete disaster they both were in the beginning of the year. They're still #26 and #29 for the season. Just not going to over think this one.
2 units each
Sorry so late. I got stuck in traffic picking my daughter up at gymnastics....
Comment