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Did manage to go 10-5 yesterday and profit +10.98 units. Unfortunately, I cannot help but consider that the exception, not the rule, right now after dropping about 75 units (give or take a unit or two) in the last few weeks, so even though i'm trying to find the right adjustments and get some winners going again, these are still fades and turds as far as I'm concerned. It takes me more than one good day to start feeling good and confident about my picks again.
But unlike so many who will disappear when losing, even though probably 75% or more of them continue to bet and lose, then come back and post again when they start to hit a better streak and try to make themselves look like big winners, when really they are only showing a small part of the story, i will continue to post and count every single play that i make in my record, weather i'm winning or losing, and give a true account of where I am for the season, not just the times when I got hot and posted my plays.
ytd 546-541 (-34.55 units)
Tampon Bay Rays +103
I have looked to go against David Price and his wild self most of the year, with a decent amount of success. I have also looked to go against the Rays on the road in general, but more specifically against LHP on the road. So this should be a prime opportunity to fade them, right?
Not IMO.
Toronto is one of the 5 worst teams in baseball, and they keep proving it night in and night out. I'd give you Washington and San Diego as obviously worse, and probably KC, but after that, I think could make an argument for any team in MLB betting better than TOR.
People though, are just remembering that hot start, and continuing to bet the Jays at lines that are far far too low.
I mean not only is TB the more talented team, but they are riding the confidence that they are winning again after a lackluster start to the year, and making another playoff run in the process. Even if it doesn't seem all that likely with the Yanks and Boston ahead of them, the Rays are certainly still in contention and will without a doubt be playing like it, while the Jays have little to play for except their jobs, which it seems are either locked up for some of them, and the rest either don't care, or maybe don't have the talent.
This is one of those games where I think you need to put all else aside, and see that you are getting the better team who has something to fight for at + odds.
Oh yea, Tallet has sucked ass letely as well, which is just extra icing on the cake on a line which I do not understand in the first place.
Flubs -133
The Reds are another one of those teams who i see as one of the worst in mlb. They might be #4 and the Jays #5 after the 3 I mentioned above, lol. I don't think they have any heart on the club, and only average talent. I also think manager Dusty Baker is a tool who wouldn't know how to motivate a club if his life depended on it, which is why you always see his teams underachieve, despite having some talented and capable players, imo.
Like I said in the last write up, this is the time of the season where the better teams start to beat up on the bottom feeders, of which the Reds are, and are proving so with their play on the field.
Cueto has been awful lately too.
This is a game the Flubs need to, and should win against a struggling pitcher and a team with basically a punchless offense if they have any hopes of making a run at the post season.
Seattle/Boston 2 team parlay +129
I almost looked to play Cleveland today, looking for value on a team who has underperformed all year and might be at least heating up a little, going up against one who has overachieved. That was until I took a look at the game.
Cleveland is 10-28 off a win, 7-23 in game 2 of a series, 2-7 off back to back wins, have not won 3 straight road games all year, and 19-30 on the road. All of that sucks, but on top of it, they have one of the league's worst bullpens (although it seems they have shown some improvement) and despite fighting for a spot in the rotation now and in the future, Jeremy Sowers has continually sucked almost every time he's pitched. That doesn't sound like a team i'd like to bet on.
So on the other side, there's Seattle, who probably is overachieving, but that is because they fight hard every day and believe in themselves that they can win. These 2 things are showing in the fact that they are 27-17 off any loss and even more specifically 7-2 after losing game 1 of a series. Seattle also has one of the league's best bullpens, and has at least a decently strong home field advantage at 25-19.
After seeing all of that, I couldn't help but be convinced that Seattle has a really nice shot of bouncing back today.
I would NOT, however, play them at -185 or whatever the line has climbed to by now. Nor would i just drop 2 units down on the -1.5 rl just because they are getting "plus odds" on it. Their offense, or often times lack there of, combined with their quality pitching staff, makes it not the most sensible thing to do, as they could easily take a tough luck 2-1 type loss or a grind it out 2-1 type win at any time, even though what I see lends me to believe they should push at least a couple runs across the plate today.
So, I decided to combine them with Boston, another huge public fave for the day, lol
In all seriousness though, without getting into a ton of detail, Boston owns Baltimore, Lester owns Baltimore, Boston is one of the league's best home teams, Baltimore is the AL's WORST road team. These is also no comparison between the two bullpens, with Boston having the large advantage.
This is a no brainer pick IF Boston isn't struggling on offense, which they are, and is my main concern. So step in Jeremy Guthrie. IMO this guy sucks, and hopefully he, along with a return to Fenway will be what the Boston offense needs to get moving.
Houston ASStros -130
Ahhhh.....the mighty Mets, lol. I forgot about them in my top 5 worst MLB teams rambling above. They might just knock one of those teams out. God do they suck. They even lost 2 of 3 to the NATINALS. They can't hit consistently and score that way, and they hit no home runs. Without runs, you cannot win. It's pretty simple.
Houston on the other hand, while clearly being the better team here, is also getting hot. Clearly they are a talented team, who is now getting it together and starting to believe they can win.
I will take my chances with them every day at -130 against the hapless Mutts.
KC Royalettes -106
I can hear it already....
ICK!! The ****TY ROYALS?? Against the hot Rangers who have won 5 straight? Are you a moron??
Maybe, lol.
But the fact remains that KC first off KC has the starting pitching advantage today. The Royalettes are 7-4 in Hochevar's starts overall, and 4-1 in his home starts. There is no other SP on the Royals team with which they have a winning record. Not Meche, not Greinke, not Bannister. Could be coincidence, but they seem to win pretty often when Hochevar pitches.
On the other side, Holland hasn't even done anything close to proving that he belongs in an MLB rotation. In addition, it appears some members of the Rangers are suffering from the swine flu (ouch), and others from "flu or flu like symptoms", so who knows what guys will actually take the field today, or be productive if they do.
This looks to me like as good of a spot as one is going to find to bet on KC to break that 10 game losing streak.
2 units each
This is getting lengthy, so I am gonna stop and post it, even though I have more games to go over and will probably have some more plays. I'll just post them as I get to em....
But unlike so many who will disappear when losing, even though probably 75% or more of them continue to bet and lose, then come back and post again when they start to hit a better streak and try to make themselves look like big winners, when really they are only showing a small part of the story, i will continue to post and count every single play that i make in my record, weather i'm winning or losing, and give a true account of where I am for the season, not just the times when I got hot and posted my plays.
ytd 546-541 (-34.55 units)
Tampon Bay Rays +103
I have looked to go against David Price and his wild self most of the year, with a decent amount of success. I have also looked to go against the Rays on the road in general, but more specifically against LHP on the road. So this should be a prime opportunity to fade them, right?
Not IMO.
Toronto is one of the 5 worst teams in baseball, and they keep proving it night in and night out. I'd give you Washington and San Diego as obviously worse, and probably KC, but after that, I think could make an argument for any team in MLB betting better than TOR.
People though, are just remembering that hot start, and continuing to bet the Jays at lines that are far far too low.
I mean not only is TB the more talented team, but they are riding the confidence that they are winning again after a lackluster start to the year, and making another playoff run in the process. Even if it doesn't seem all that likely with the Yanks and Boston ahead of them, the Rays are certainly still in contention and will without a doubt be playing like it, while the Jays have little to play for except their jobs, which it seems are either locked up for some of them, and the rest either don't care, or maybe don't have the talent.
This is one of those games where I think you need to put all else aside, and see that you are getting the better team who has something to fight for at + odds.
Oh yea, Tallet has sucked ass letely as well, which is just extra icing on the cake on a line which I do not understand in the first place.
Flubs -133
The Reds are another one of those teams who i see as one of the worst in mlb. They might be #4 and the Jays #5 after the 3 I mentioned above, lol. I don't think they have any heart on the club, and only average talent. I also think manager Dusty Baker is a tool who wouldn't know how to motivate a club if his life depended on it, which is why you always see his teams underachieve, despite having some talented and capable players, imo.
Like I said in the last write up, this is the time of the season where the better teams start to beat up on the bottom feeders, of which the Reds are, and are proving so with their play on the field.
Cueto has been awful lately too.
This is a game the Flubs need to, and should win against a struggling pitcher and a team with basically a punchless offense if they have any hopes of making a run at the post season.
Seattle/Boston 2 team parlay +129
I almost looked to play Cleveland today, looking for value on a team who has underperformed all year and might be at least heating up a little, going up against one who has overachieved. That was until I took a look at the game.
Cleveland is 10-28 off a win, 7-23 in game 2 of a series, 2-7 off back to back wins, have not won 3 straight road games all year, and 19-30 on the road. All of that sucks, but on top of it, they have one of the league's worst bullpens (although it seems they have shown some improvement) and despite fighting for a spot in the rotation now and in the future, Jeremy Sowers has continually sucked almost every time he's pitched. That doesn't sound like a team i'd like to bet on.
So on the other side, there's Seattle, who probably is overachieving, but that is because they fight hard every day and believe in themselves that they can win. These 2 things are showing in the fact that they are 27-17 off any loss and even more specifically 7-2 after losing game 1 of a series. Seattle also has one of the league's best bullpens, and has at least a decently strong home field advantage at 25-19.
After seeing all of that, I couldn't help but be convinced that Seattle has a really nice shot of bouncing back today.
I would NOT, however, play them at -185 or whatever the line has climbed to by now. Nor would i just drop 2 units down on the -1.5 rl just because they are getting "plus odds" on it. Their offense, or often times lack there of, combined with their quality pitching staff, makes it not the most sensible thing to do, as they could easily take a tough luck 2-1 type loss or a grind it out 2-1 type win at any time, even though what I see lends me to believe they should push at least a couple runs across the plate today.
So, I decided to combine them with Boston, another huge public fave for the day, lol
In all seriousness though, without getting into a ton of detail, Boston owns Baltimore, Lester owns Baltimore, Boston is one of the league's best home teams, Baltimore is the AL's WORST road team. These is also no comparison between the two bullpens, with Boston having the large advantage.
This is a no brainer pick IF Boston isn't struggling on offense, which they are, and is my main concern. So step in Jeremy Guthrie. IMO this guy sucks, and hopefully he, along with a return to Fenway will be what the Boston offense needs to get moving.
Houston ASStros -130
Ahhhh.....the mighty Mets, lol. I forgot about them in my top 5 worst MLB teams rambling above. They might just knock one of those teams out. God do they suck. They even lost 2 of 3 to the NATINALS. They can't hit consistently and score that way, and they hit no home runs. Without runs, you cannot win. It's pretty simple.
Houston on the other hand, while clearly being the better team here, is also getting hot. Clearly they are a talented team, who is now getting it together and starting to believe they can win.
I will take my chances with them every day at -130 against the hapless Mutts.
KC Royalettes -106
I can hear it already....
ICK!! The ****TY ROYALS?? Against the hot Rangers who have won 5 straight? Are you a moron??
Maybe, lol.
But the fact remains that KC first off KC has the starting pitching advantage today. The Royalettes are 7-4 in Hochevar's starts overall, and 4-1 in his home starts. There is no other SP on the Royals team with which they have a winning record. Not Meche, not Greinke, not Bannister. Could be coincidence, but they seem to win pretty often when Hochevar pitches.
On the other side, Holland hasn't even done anything close to proving that he belongs in an MLB rotation. In addition, it appears some members of the Rangers are suffering from the swine flu (ouch), and others from "flu or flu like symptoms", so who knows what guys will actually take the field today, or be productive if they do.
This looks to me like as good of a spot as one is going to find to bet on KC to break that 10 game losing streak.
2 units each
This is getting lengthy, so I am gonna stop and post it, even though I have more games to go over and will probably have some more plays. I'll just post them as I get to em....
<-- look at him go!
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