Daws1089's Tuesday Plays

[Daws1089]

ytd:60-60-2 -5.53 units


Astros (oswalt) -125
Brewers (suppan) +105
Indians (povano) +115

1 unit

I'm backing Oswalt as he has had great success against the reds in his career and owings is pitching hurt in my opinion. He looked awful last start and he did not look comfortable at all. His delivery looked off. So I'm banking on the Astros getting some runs or walks early. I will play the astros 1st 5 too but it isnt out yet.

Wainright throws so many pitches and that could get him in trouble against a team that has the cardinals number.

Garza is so hit or miss I have to wonder if the rays will come to play tonight after what happened last night. They might have a little hangover.

I will also be on the Marlins team over no matter what it is probably 4 or 4.5. Ill post that when it comes out.

[Daws1089]

Diamondbacks -160

1 unit


Really, a team on a 10 game win streak is dogged this large? SD is going to come back down to earth soon. They have been so fortunate on this streak, they haven't even really been hitting that well on the run. I'll be looking for things to swing the other way soon. This could be a scenario where I will double up if arizona doesn't win. Padres have a really tough road coming up. They have sucked on the road so bad this year and this could be why they are dogged tonight.

[Stifler's Mom]

If you like the Marlins to get at least 5, why wouldn't you like the game over even more at 10? Or better yet the Marlins as +140ish dogs?

Phils are scoring over 6 runs per game vs LHP, and Andrew Miller pretty much sucks, so I don't see why that wouldn't continue today.

My whole thing with playing the over in that game is being afraid Florida lays one of their traditional offensive eggs and loses 7-2 or something, yet the game line seems a bit high for crappy Blanton, so I wasn't sure if i'd have a play there or not. If i was convinced Florida would score 5+, i'd be all over that over 10.

Now of course the Phils will probably get no hit today :laughing:

Like the Tribe and Brewers plays, and the reasoning behind them. I will be on both of those as well.

At first glance I like the Reds, just due to the fact that I just can't help but wonder why Houston is only -125 (sportsbook.com) with Oswalt (23-1 career vs Reds, which is imo useless because of totally new players, but in any case, what everyone tends to use in capping), and going against what you say is a hurt pitcher....which if he is pitching with injury, is the key to the play and a great find on your part though, and now has me second guessing.

I would have just thought big money would have jumped on board there at a relatively low line if Owings is indeed pitching hurt.

Just bored this morning and trying to get some discussion going for the day for those who drop in.

GL tonight :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, SD should have lost yesterday. That was BS. Gaudin is garbage, and everything pointed in Arizona's favor, yet their ****ty pen blew it.

I totally 100% agree with your reasoning there, but am hesitant to pull the trigger on Ariz because I respect Correia's ability, and completely distrust Arizona at this point.

Same holds true for the LA Angels tonight. White Sux off a 17-3 win and they're +170? Wonder who the books think is gonna win that one? But, again, I don't trust that Angels pen....which is only .06 better than the Nationals in era at this point, good for 29th in the league at 6.03, lol

Maybe Saunders can go 9, lol

[Daws1089]

Good stuff Stif. I just noticed Owings arm angle was more 3/4 than over the top and looked like he was laboring and sort of pushing his pitches. The announcers made a point of it too that the 3/4 wasn't his normal motion. We'll see if it has any validity today.

I don't like the Marlins to win because the phillies have so many bats that they can come back at any point so I would hate to have the marlins score 6 runs but lose 7-6 and me lose my bet where as I think the phillies pitching has been mediocre aside from the yankees series over the weekend and 5 runs is really not that much to ask for. The bullpen has sucked and now lidge is not pitching well, and I don't trust any of the phillies pitchers besides Hamels and any given night not to give up between 3-5 runs. So I like the odds of florida scoring. As for the game over, I guess it wouldn't be a bad option, but I mean the phillies only put up 3 last night on Volstad, well Howard put up 3. So I am worried their bats might go back into a funk, plus I can't see the phillies hitting this well off of lefties for much longer. The Team over play has worked pretty well for me so far against the phillies because of their pitching and I don't see why this should stop tonight. I'll have to look at the Game Over more.


Another line I might bite on is Colorado -155. I saw they were favs yesterday with de la rosa on the hill, but got killed in the 7th or 8th inning. A 1st 5 -1.2 wager on Cook could be in order. There's only one explanation for a line like this. The dodgers pitcher sucks and the books are looking for money on the 1st place dodgers as dogs for the 2nd day in a row.

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, De La Rosa blew up big time yesterday. He had no control of any of his pitches and it got ugly early. Then Colorado caught up off crappy Stults and Jeff Weaver, but their pen got blasted somewhere about the 7th inning, lol

Without even having looked into it yet, Milton should get torched in a big open yard like Coors where the ball carries. Not that he doesn't suck everywhere, but he's mainly a flyball pitcher so seemingly Coors Field with its huge outfield and tendency to give up the long ball wouldn't be a very good fit for him. I'd think the Rockies should be able to either split some gaps and hit a few out tonight for sure.

Interesting take on the Phillies. Their pen is still ranked like 8th in the league, and has actually been climbing in the rankings, but I also must agree about Lidge. He's awful right now, but overall I've always thought their pen was a strong point of the club. the Phils starting pitching, on the other hand, is plain pathetic outside Hamels and the occasional decent start from Myers lately. I actually think the fact that the Phils pen is in the league's top 10, despite all the innings its forced to throw due to the ****tiness of their SP's and that their closer has faltered lately speaks well for the rest of the guys out there.

At what point does J.A. Happ become a regular in the rotation? He is certainly a better option than Blanton or Moyer.

I don't think its just a given their production vs LHP will go down though, as it seems they have some guys in the line up that have always hit well off of lefties, and its a strong line up overall, almost comparable to most AL line ups.

The more I look over the card, it seems like there's a bunch of games tonight where the books are pretty much giving their opinion out, if you're willing to pay the price to get it....

[Daws1089]

Here we go:

Marlins Over 4.5 -115
Marlins/Phillies Over 10 -110
Rockies (cook) 1st 5 -1/2 -115

1 unit


It can't be much longer before happ is in the rotation. Moyer is just not getting it done stif. 83 mph fastballs can only get you so far. Then Wes Helms takes you yard for his first HR of the season while hitting .203 lol. One more bad start out of Moyer and he will be a middle reliever.

If victorino and Rollins get hot, the line up could be unbelievebale. Or if werth woul stop being so werthless. It was nice to see Ruiz hit for a change, as the phillies catchers have been awful in the past few years minus coaste's success.

I see there is some early money coming in on Butthole Colon of CWS. Why? I don't know, but I can't lay -190 with the LAA either. I might back Lincecum too, but I will probably be in bed before that game starts.

[Stifler's Mom]

I don't see the point in backing Butthole Colon, at ANY price, after what happened to him last time he pitched. I thought he was having a decent season till then, but I guess everything has to regress back to the normal at some point.

Of course, I didn't see that outburst coming from the normally worthless CWS offense last night either.

In any case, I don't personally know all the details of this or track the results, but I know someone posted here either last year or the year before something along the lines that teams who score 17+ and win by 10+ have a horrific record the next day. CWS would fall into that category tonight, for what it's worth.

[Daws1089]

i believe it.

[Stifler's Mom]

Oh, and I don't know if you'd agree or not, but at the very least there is HUGE value on Detroit tonight with Jackson imo, who is having a pretty fine year of his own.

Detroit has 3x the bats KC does, and Greinke is going to fall back to average as well. No one can keep up the pace he started at this season, and he is going to be overvalued all year as a result of it, or at least until he cracks under the pressure again and either quits again or starts getting blasted every start again.

All things equal though, I actually feel like with the way he's pitched, and with the way KC's hit this year, there's a better chance of Jackson shutting KC down than Greinke shutting Detroit down tonight, and that Detroit should probably be slightly favored.

[Daws1089]

some good discussion, but some awful plays for me. I just can't seem to figure baseball out. I think I have a pretty good read on the other sports and can usually make some money, but baseball is the one sport that really confuses me. Oh well. Back to the drawing board and I suspect I will be trying to get back to even all season long.

2-5 -3.45 units

ytd:62-65-2 -8.98 units