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reg plays 183-174 (-3.72 units)
fave rl's 59-90 (-1.58 units)
overall 242-264 (-5.30 units)
faves who won by 1 run: 23 of 149 (15.44%)
Florida/LA Dodgers over 10 -105
Both teams hit lefties pretty well. Kershaw blows bad on the road, and quite frankly has been fortunate in his last 2 home starts not to give up the motherload as well. Koronka is just Koronka. Always good to give up a few. Worried that pretty much the whole world is on this play though.
Florida +127
I just think this is a nice price to go against Kershaw, who hasn't had as much as a clue on the road this year. The Dodgers are only 11-10 on the road, as compared to 14-3 at home.
NYY/Minny over 10 -105
Hitters park, 2 capable offenses of both getting guys on and hitting the long ball, 2 of the worst pens in baseball, and both starters with an era in the 5 range.
Sounds good for an over to me.
I know both of these starters are capable of being very good, but too much points to an over here for me to worry about that.
A's +125
Galarraga isn't right. If the books will keep favoring him, I'll keep fading. Usually it takes a trip to either the DL or the minors to work these things out. Detroit's offense has been hot and will probably get theirs as well, but with the huge pen advantage to Oakland (3.22 to 5.08), I'll look for at the very least a good shot for Oakland to win late, but hopefully the A's just bomb Galarraga and get it over with early.
A's/Detroit over 9.5 -110
See above.
Nats -108
If Zimmermann gets out of the first inning, I like my chances, as he has been very good after the first, lol. Nats pen always a concern, but that's how it goes. They can't lose every single day. If their pen blows it, I knew they sucked going in to the play.
Tribe +140
TB is 3-9 vs LHP. Sonnanstine blows with an era over 7.
I realize there are concerns with backing the Tribe too, like their bullpen and not knowing what this AAA guy will do today, but they're not -150 either.
TB still riding the reputation of last year, despite having an 18-20 record, including only 8-8 at home.
D'backs +1.5 -135
D'backs anemic offense actually seems to be heating up, while the streaky Braves offense is slowing signs of slowing down again.
Garland is capable of keeping them in a pitching battle if that's what it comes down to as well.
Brewers +100
Brewers own St Louis. Plain and simple.
Brewers/St Louis over 9 -120
After a 1-0 final yesterday with the only run coming on a solo hr, I like my chances of both sides putting up some runs today, considering both are fully capable of exploding given the talent they have on offense respectively, and that neither one of these pitchers are all that great.
Texas -101
Taking the hot team to keep it rolling @ home. Not often the Rangers get to play a team whose pen is worse than their own, but that is the case today, with the Angels sporting the worst one in mlb....even worse than the Nats, lol
KC Royals +103
Seems pretty much everyone is backing the O's today as a road fave. Why?
Uehara is ok, but not dominant or great, and the KC offense has been not that great lately (although they did get 8 and 5 vs the futile Baltimore pitching staff in the first 2 games of the series).
More importantly, Baltimore sucks on the road (5-10) and they were horrid on the road last year as well. Their pen sucks big time too, while KC's is 3rd in mlb (3.09 era), and KC has a winning record at home.
All signs point to people backing offense and SP here, and ignoring everything else. Hochevar isn't as bad as his last start.....
Boston/Seattle under 8.5 -105
Seattle can't hit, and facing a quality Masterson and the best pen in mlb shouldn't change that.
Boston not the same offensive team on the road as at home.
Too bad Big Poopy is sitting. I could have used an 0-4 with 3 K's and a GIDP to help this play along....
Padres -164
Yea i know, the Padres suck, Peavy hasn't been that great lately, and all that.
That doesn't change the fact that Arroyo sucks far worse than Peavy ever will.
SD is getting a little hotter offensively (not that doing such a thing took much), and seem to be responding decently to returning home, where they are now 10-6, after playing a pretty brutal stretch of games on the road.
The ****ty Padres ride all the momentum here today, and I think today will be the day the dominant Peavy returns and the Padres broom the Reds.
Seems too good to be true, going against the ****ty Padres and getting over +150 to do so, no? Especially with the people's champion pitching for CIN, whom I still fail to see why everyone thinks is so great with his freakin 7.02 era. News flash, a 7.02 era BLOWS, and so does Bronson Arroyo.
By the way, I think the Reds are still crying about the strike zone last night :cry: :cry: :cry:
2 units each
Nats rl +170
Padres rl +135
1/2 unit each
fave rl's 59-90 (-1.58 units)
overall 242-264 (-5.30 units)
faves who won by 1 run: 23 of 149 (15.44%)
Florida/LA Dodgers over 10 -105
Both teams hit lefties pretty well. Kershaw blows bad on the road, and quite frankly has been fortunate in his last 2 home starts not to give up the motherload as well. Koronka is just Koronka. Always good to give up a few. Worried that pretty much the whole world is on this play though.
Florida +127
I just think this is a nice price to go against Kershaw, who hasn't had as much as a clue on the road this year. The Dodgers are only 11-10 on the road, as compared to 14-3 at home.
NYY/Minny over 10 -105
Hitters park, 2 capable offenses of both getting guys on and hitting the long ball, 2 of the worst pens in baseball, and both starters with an era in the 5 range.
Sounds good for an over to me.
I know both of these starters are capable of being very good, but too much points to an over here for me to worry about that.
A's +125
Galarraga isn't right. If the books will keep favoring him, I'll keep fading. Usually it takes a trip to either the DL or the minors to work these things out. Detroit's offense has been hot and will probably get theirs as well, but with the huge pen advantage to Oakland (3.22 to 5.08), I'll look for at the very least a good shot for Oakland to win late, but hopefully the A's just bomb Galarraga and get it over with early.
A's/Detroit over 9.5 -110
See above.
Nats -108
If Zimmermann gets out of the first inning, I like my chances, as he has been very good after the first, lol. Nats pen always a concern, but that's how it goes. They can't lose every single day. If their pen blows it, I knew they sucked going in to the play.
Tribe +140
TB is 3-9 vs LHP. Sonnanstine blows with an era over 7.
I realize there are concerns with backing the Tribe too, like their bullpen and not knowing what this AAA guy will do today, but they're not -150 either.
TB still riding the reputation of last year, despite having an 18-20 record, including only 8-8 at home.
D'backs +1.5 -135
D'backs anemic offense actually seems to be heating up, while the streaky Braves offense is slowing signs of slowing down again.
Garland is capable of keeping them in a pitching battle if that's what it comes down to as well.
Brewers +100
Brewers own St Louis. Plain and simple.
Brewers/St Louis over 9 -120
After a 1-0 final yesterday with the only run coming on a solo hr, I like my chances of both sides putting up some runs today, considering both are fully capable of exploding given the talent they have on offense respectively, and that neither one of these pitchers are all that great.
Texas -101
Taking the hot team to keep it rolling @ home. Not often the Rangers get to play a team whose pen is worse than their own, but that is the case today, with the Angels sporting the worst one in mlb....even worse than the Nats, lol
KC Royals +103
Seems pretty much everyone is backing the O's today as a road fave. Why?
Uehara is ok, but not dominant or great, and the KC offense has been not that great lately (although they did get 8 and 5 vs the futile Baltimore pitching staff in the first 2 games of the series).
More importantly, Baltimore sucks on the road (5-10) and they were horrid on the road last year as well. Their pen sucks big time too, while KC's is 3rd in mlb (3.09 era), and KC has a winning record at home.
All signs point to people backing offense and SP here, and ignoring everything else. Hochevar isn't as bad as his last start.....
Boston/Seattle under 8.5 -105
Seattle can't hit, and facing a quality Masterson and the best pen in mlb shouldn't change that.
Boston not the same offensive team on the road as at home.
Too bad Big Poopy is sitting. I could have used an 0-4 with 3 K's and a GIDP to help this play along....
Padres -164
Yea i know, the Padres suck, Peavy hasn't been that great lately, and all that.
That doesn't change the fact that Arroyo sucks far worse than Peavy ever will.
SD is getting a little hotter offensively (not that doing such a thing took much), and seem to be responding decently to returning home, where they are now 10-6, after playing a pretty brutal stretch of games on the road.
The ****ty Padres ride all the momentum here today, and I think today will be the day the dominant Peavy returns and the Padres broom the Reds.
Seems too good to be true, going against the ****ty Padres and getting over +150 to do so, no? Especially with the people's champion pitching for CIN, whom I still fail to see why everyone thinks is so great with his freakin 7.02 era. News flash, a 7.02 era BLOWS, and so does Bronson Arroyo.
By the way, I think the Reds are still crying about the strike zone last night :cry: :cry: :cry:
2 units each
Nats rl +170
Padres rl +135
1/2 unit each
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