MLB Opening Day

[Stifler's Mom]

2-0 (+3.49 units)

Texas +111

I'm not buying the Cliff Lee of last year. Millwood is capable, and from what I've read has been working very hard this offseason/preseason to get back to his form of old. Makes sense, since this is in all reality a contract year for him, since the Rangers can choose to not pick up his option for 2010 if he doesn't meet certain standards in his contract.

Basically, I look for a pretty strong year from Millwood, and a return to average for Lee, probably disappointing a lot of fantasy owners who put entirely too much stock in his one great season.

Rangers bullpen is always an adventure, but at @ home dog price, with what I feel are some nice advantages, I think they are more than worthy of a play this afternoon.

Toronto -147

Verlander sucks until proven otherwise as far as I'm concerned. 11-17 last year, with an ERA approaching 5. Lovely. I see people saying it was "one bad year", but if history has proven anything, it's more likely that the year before was "one good year" instead. I hear he's fooling with arm angles and whatever to try and solve his woes. That can never be good.

I don't know that the Tigers downright awful bullpen from last year is going to be much or any better this season either.

Maybe I'm missing out on something, but I just really see no real reason to believe the Tigers are going to be any good at all this year, nor do I believe Verlander is anything more than a .500 pitcher with every bit as much potential to get lit up than to throw a solid game.

On the other hand, there is no need to offer any sort of explanation or numbers on why I'm backing Halladay, as I think anyone who is placing a bet on an MLB game is aware of him at this point. The Jays have a capable offense, always sport a strong bullpen year after year, and are always at least competitive in the AL East, a division in which the Tigers would more than likely finish dead last and probably even be out of it before the all star break.

With every conceivable advantage going to TOR here, I don't understand why this line isn't -200 or more, so I'll gladly take a shot at it @ -147.

2 units each

Should have a few more. Still looking into some stuff.....

[Stifler's Mom]

add:

Pirates +156

1.5 units

This was one of the games I needed to look into more closely, mainly because Paul Maholmo was generally pretty bad on the road last season (Pirates were just 4-11 as a team in his 15 road starts).

In doing so, however, I realized that I was correct in that despite his overall road woes from last season, Maholmo was actually pretty solid vs STL, and more importantly, @ Busch stadium. Makes sense, since STL has often had trouble vs LHP in recent years, especially the "soft tossing" Tom Glavine types, which Maholmo qualifies as.

On top of it, the Pirates always seem to play STL tough every year, and for what it's worth, the Buccos beat up on Wainwrong 2x in only 2 starts vs them last year, handing him his only home loss of the season in the process.

I know it's a new year, and all of this could be worthless, but at this line (which started at +180 and is dropping like a brick, despite 65% being on STL @ Sports Insights), I figure it's well worth a shot.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL Stif.

Bang on about the Jays...was really expecting -180 for Halladay. Jays bats ALL healthy to start the year as well...packed house for opening day, and the bigtime difference in quality of bullpens make it seem like a good play.

GL this year....

[Stifler's Mom]

Yeah, I just can't see Detroit as any type of contender at all this year, but they are still drawing name recognition (as is Verlander) from being in the WS the other year.

I just think there's a ton of value on Halladay and the Jays at just -147 today. Hopefully we're right :thumbs:

adding:

Twins -133

2 units

Felix is always tough to go against, but SEA is a dog today for a reason.....because they suck, and they have done nothing to really change that, except add old ass Ken Griffey Jr. Well then again they did pick up journeymen Endy Chavez, Russell Branyan and Mike Sweeney I see, plus added 2 guys from the NFL, Matt Tuiasosopo and Rob "beach comber" Johnson. Yea i know, not the same guys, but still made me lol...

Anyway, SEA was a blistering 26-55 on the road last year, and this year's team might be even WORSE, to start the season anyway, with Griffey all but a worthless addition who is imo taking on last "victory lap" around Seattle before retirement, and Ichiro out to start the year. I also recall SEA not being real good vs LHP last year (although I'm having difficulty finding the stats to back that up), but then again, in what category WEREN'T they one of the worst teams in MLB?

So with last year's worst road team in baseball (and worst team in baseball period), having made no real worthwhile improvements worth mentioning since dropping Richie Sexson midseason last year, going up against a team with one of, if not the biggest home field advantage in baseball, this looks like a steal to me at just -133.

The only thing I don't like is that I am failing to find any useful preseason info on Liriano, and I'm still a little concerned about that, but, from all accounts I've heard he's fine, and proved so last season in the minors, and then when he got his shots in the majors.

Clearly Mariners fans are in for another LOOOOOOONG season, and I don't really see why it shouldn't start today already unless Felix comes thru with a lights out gem. I'll take the chance....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

From what I've read/heard, Liriano was back to his nasty/dominant self in the spring. Like the play, but went with the under myself....GL

[JB]

Good Luck Stiff!
Good to see you back!!

[Hoosier]

looks like we're on the same page Stif! hope that's a good thing

[Stifler's Mom]

One more:

Houston Asstros -104

2 units

[Stifler's Mom]

Jack Wilson

[Q-Unit]

Jack Wilson

:yahoo: :showtits2:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

CC Sabathia and the Yankees...lol :beer2:

[FlyersFan]

CC Sabathia and the Yankees...lol :beer2:

:laughing: :laughing:


i wanted to post odds on the following 2 things:

1) how long it would take somebody to post an LMAO/LOL @ the yankees

and

2) how long before either boiler or stif would bring up a bad bullpen blowing a save for them.


looks like the first one didn't even make it through the first day.....classic....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

But you didnt post odds, so it doesnt count...! :thumbs:

Jays absolutely hammer Verlander... :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

i wanted to post odds on the following 2 things:

1) how long it would take somebody to post an LMAO/LOL @ the yankees

and

2) how long before either boiler or stif would bring up a bad bullpen blowing a save for them.


looks like the first one didn't even make it through the first day.....classic....

How about odds on how long it will take for that Big 10 thread to be bumped?? :laughing:

[BUNK MORELAND]

add:

Pirates +156

1.5 units

This was one of the games I needed to look into more closely, mainly because Paul Maholmo was generally pretty bad on the road last season (Pirates were just 4-11 as a team in his 15 road starts).

In doing so, however, I realized that I was correct in that despite his overall road woes from last season, Maholmo was actually pretty solid vs STL, and more importantly, @ Busch stadium. Makes sense, since STL has often had trouble vs LHP in recent years, especially the "soft tossing" Tom Glavine types, which Maholmo qualifies as.

On top of it, the Pirates always seem to play STL tough every year, and for what it's worth, the Buccos beat up on Wainwrong 2x in only 2 starts vs them last year, handing him his only home loss of the season in the process.

I know it's a new year, and all of this could be worthless, but at this line (which started at +180 and is dropping like a brick, despite 65% being on STL @ Sports Insights), I figure it's well worth a shot.

nice calll !!!!!!