Stats for Handicapping MLB

[Meestermike]

Interesting. So you're saying to play against any team who played in a 1 run game, weather home or away, and no matter if they won or lost that game, and are now on the road (or still on the road if they already were) and are playing a different team?

My question is....do the games have to be on consecutive days? Or can there be an off day in between?

Stif... most teams travel to their next opponent right after their previous game without any day off. Usual travel time frame is 12 to 16 hours until their next start. This would be very prevalent when jumping time zones IMO. Will have to research further on this. It may prove to be an excellent filter.

[Stifler's Mom]

I know, but often teams have either Monday or Thursday as an off day, especially if they're making a long trip to the next city....which is why I asked.

I figure it would be more relevant if there was no day off, since if a team is in a one run game, one theory could be that they may have used many of their better relief pitchers and they may be more likely to be fatigued, or even unavailable, though obviously not always.

[Meestermike]

An Awesome K.I.S.S. SYSTEM

1. Each day, check the American and National league schedules and eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150.

2. Then eliminate games that remain in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row.

3. Then eliminate games that remain in which the favorite team's pitcher is among the top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA (see usa today/sagarin for stats).

4. You should have 3 to 9 games to wager. Make wagers on the underdogs using different books for the best moneyline odds.

This system is based on a law of averages that underdogs win 4 out of 9 games but by using the above criteria your odds are improved even more.

BANKROLL: Determine your bankroll for this system and bet 2.5 percent of bankroll for each play.

Start date: The system starts on May 1 ... giving time to set up stats for this season.

[Q-Unit]

1. Each day, check the American and National league schedules and eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150.

2. Then eliminate games that remain in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row.

3. Then eliminate games that remain in which the favorite team's pitcher is among the top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA (see usa today/sagarin for stats).

4. You should have 3 to 9 games to wager. Make wagers on the underdogs using different books for the best moneyline odds.

This system is based on a law of averages that underdogs win 4 out of 9 games but by using the above criteria your odds are improved even more.

BANKROLL: Determine your bankroll for this system and bet 2.5 percent of bankroll for each play.

Start date: The system starts on May 1 ... giving time to set up stats for this season.

whats k.i.s.s. stand for?

thats very interesting, how have you fared in the past doing this mike?

thanks!

[Meestermike]

whats k.i.s.s. stand for?

thats very interesting, how have you fared in the past doing this mike?

thanks!

K.I.S.S. = KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID. Something I keep trying to tell myself all the time. I luv crunching numbers and sometimes complicate things by trying too many variables.

As for its success, around 56% to 59%.

The other basis formula I use a great deal after the 1st 2 weeks is the one I mentioned earlier FA Ratio and FA Median1+.

[Bobo66]

[QUOTE=Meestermike;26555]1. Each day, check the American and National league schedules and eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150.
QUOTE]

#######11111111111111

Baseball is a game a feel, even though the game is justified on stats. If you know the game then you have a head start. This honestly is the only sport that I feel that I have an edge. Knowing your pitchers.......knowing who is resting........and knowing what the team is coming off, being tough series, losing streak, winning streak, division foes, down time, switch in rotation, team vs. lefties/righties. Baseball in my opinion is best capped early in the season........and late.

[AddictedToBetting]

[QUOTE=Bobo66;28602]

1. Each day, check the American and National league schedules and eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150.
QUOTE]

#######11111111111111

Baseball is a game a feel, even though the game is justified on stats. If you know the game then you have a head start. This honestly is the only sport that I feel that I have an edge. Knowing your pitchers.......knowing who is resting........and knowing what the team is coming off, being tough series, losing streak, winning streak, division foes, down time, switch in rotation, team vs. lefties/righties. Baseball in my opinion is best capped early in the season........and late.

I am the same way with NBA. I live and breathe in pro basketball...:beerbang:

[yomonte]

1-Run Game Plays: Going against the winner OR loser of a 1-run game when they play their next game on the road against a different opponent.

Will have to dig for the exact #'s on this one but it has run over 65% during past seasons.

This year how you would fare going against 1 run games playing on the road against a different opponent

NL - 0-3
AL - 3-0

with a day off

NL - 1-2
AL - 1-1

1 run games no matter whether on the road next game or at home going against.

NL - 0-6
AL - 5-3

day off

NL - 7-2
AL - 1-1

Two days off

NL - 1-0
AL - 0-1

Cleveland with 4 days off won and you would be 0-1 going against

[homedawg]

"Top Of The Board" Games (1st day games or 1st night games with dogs +150 or more)

BIG Dogs Been Cashin'

4/20 was +163 (W) 6-5
4/19 bos +180 (W) 5-3
4/18 kcr +180 (W) 4-3
4/17 Pit +161 (W) 6-1
4/16 was +183 (W) 5-1
4/15 cin +151 (W) 1-0
4/14 det +161 (W) 10-7
4/14 was +230 (W) 6-2
4/13 cin +152 (W) 6-5
4/12 was +270 (W) 2-0
4/11 sea +165 (W) 3-0



:celebrate:

[Q-Unit]

"Top Of The Board" Games (1st day games or 1st night games with dogs +150 or more)

BIG Dogs Been Cashin'

4/19 bos +180 (W) 5-3
4/18 kcr +180 (W) 4-3
4/17 Pit +161 (W) 6-1
4/16 was +183 (W) 5-1
4/15 cin +151 (W) 1-0
4/14 det +161 (W) 10-7
4/14 was +230 (W) 6-2
4/13 cin +152 (W) 6-5




:celebrate:

what time counts as the first night game?

[homedawg]

what time counts as the first night game?

usually 7:05 et... I am only tracking the first dog of +150 or more on the board. Most of the streak has been a day game dogs +150 or more... last night (4/20) the 1st big dog on the board (+150 or more) washington nationals. (w6-5)

4/21 there are only 2 dogs +150 or more on the entire board (nyy +155) & was +160... was(7:05et) is higher on the board but nyy starts earlier (3:55et)...

[Silver & Black]

thru 05/23/07
NL teams 12-27 (30%) after scoring 10 or more the prior day!!
:dunno:

[yomonte]

S&B, I got behind in my keeping score on 10 and over. I will get the #'s for 12 and higher. As it stands right now, AL and NL teams that score 11 runs and win are 2-13 the next day. AL and NL teams on the road that score 10 runs and win are 0-7 the next day. I'll break down 12 and higher to see if there is something going on.

[Meestermike]

After almost 3 months, here are some results of One-Run vs. Multiple_Run Win %'s. Some interesting results.

SEE THE RESULTS HERE

[Horfin]

I'm a little late to the party:

But here is an easy way: early line movement

Check lines around midnight and play solely on line movement (I have a whole chart depicting which plays have a 9% or greater ROI and I only play on those) and I play on those games.

So far this season: 183-174 +$1,659.36 (excluding yesterday). The numbers would be better but in the beginning I screwed it up.


Horfy