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I better sell a damn house today because I'm doing something very risky and uncharacteristic. I'm putting 1K on a single baseball game. I'm still leery about doing this, and I wouldn't be if I had started the month cold. Luckily I've got the money to play this month, and we're about to take a 4 day break. Sometimes when an opportunity of overwhelming value presents it self you gotta pound it in hopes that a little luck will be on your side. That's what I'm doing today. Wish me luck.
Saunders has left to be with his wife who just had a baby, so Moseley is being shipped in for the emergency start. If you get on this quick enough, be sure not to use listed pitchers. Moseley has been sucking it up this year, including a poor showing against the A's. He's pitching off three days rest from his last 6 inning AAA start. I think you're dreaming if you expect Duke to throw another shutout today like he did in his last outing, but he should be... well Duke. If anything I'd take the possibility of his last and only start against the Angels to be more likely. (I think the chance of them scoring 6 is highly unlikely however.) May 1st vs. LAA, Duchscherer surrendered six runs (one earned) on six hits (2 HRs) in five innings while striking out six, as the A's won 15-8. Duke's only given up 5 HRs all year. He's very well could give up #6 today. With an all-star bid, I'd be highly surprised to see Geren gamble with his 1st year reliever turned starter as he becomes the head of his rotation. If he stumbles early giving up a couple runs, he may get the 5 inning treatment.
Angels bullpen has been stumbling of late and could be dead until after the break. They'll definitely be dead after this game if Moseley can't give them 5 innings. For the A's Casilla has definitely lost something after missing a month with elbow soreness. A's do however have a full pen for this game. The Angels could be running tomorrow to get a couple of runs with the huge pitching mismatch. They've had very good success against Kurt/Bowen going 12-for-14 on stolen bases this year. Duke can keep them close, but when they run they're safe 75% of the time over his career. Despite this, I don't believe the Angels have the advantage in the starting or relief pitching today, and look ripe to give up at least 5 runs, at least 3-4 from Moseley before he gets yanked. Moseley has started 5 games this year, and only 1 of them fell short of 10 runs and he gave up at least 3 in all of them, never going more than 6 innings. He's also sporting a nice 5.58 ERA in over 70 innings for AAA.
The A's have done very good putting up 4.9 runs on average in day games so far this year, and are also averaging over 5 runs per game against the Angels this year. What do you think they'll do to Moseley? They've also allowed more runs against division opponents a high 4.2 runs per game, but I expect 3-4 from the Angels at most. I'm loaded with reasons to see at least a 8-9 run scoring game here with the A's putting up at least 5-6 of them, so I'm taking the low key number and the all-star at home. Duke and the pen may very well be dominant, and the A's may just want to start the break already resulting in a 1-0 game, but on Dave Stewart jersey day I think the atmosphere will be pretty lively in a key divisional game. I'm guessing somehow the A's hitting 8 of last 10 Unders, and the Angels hitting the Under 61% this year made the oddsmakers keep this total so low originally. I'm sure it'll jump once they get on the pitching change. Play it or fade it at your own risk guys and I never recommend going outside a 5% limit... but for the reasons above I'm on this game like white on rice. I thought about whether the parlay was a bad idea, but if one of these doesn't hit, I'm having a losing day already. If you look at the value, I think it's definitely worth it. I'm risking $1,045 to win $1,150 in hopes that the A's win in a game that scores 7 or more. That's +110 odds in a divided wager set that I think should be -140 or more. If the Angels win, this one has at least an 80-90% chance of going over I feel, so I'm making all 3 bets in belief that there is a very small chance the Angels win in a low scoring game. This is a risk I have to take. Good Luck gents!
OAKLAND ATHLETICS -130
RISKING $470 TO WIN $360
ANGELS/ATHLETICS - OVER 7 (-110)
*RISKING $395 TO WIN $360
ATHLETICS & OVER 7 - SAME GAME PARLAY (+240)
*RISKING $180 TO WIN $430
--
July ML = (8-5) +$1,300
July RL = (0-0) +$0
July O/U = (2-1) +$310
July Team O/U = (0-1) -$430
July H+R+E = (4-1) +$970
July Parlays = (2-1) +$820
--
Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $37,940
1% Bet Amount = $360
Bet Change @ $39,900 / $33,300
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Saunders has left to be with his wife who just had a baby, so Moseley is being shipped in for the emergency start. If you get on this quick enough, be sure not to use listed pitchers. Moseley has been sucking it up this year, including a poor showing against the A's. He's pitching off three days rest from his last 6 inning AAA start. I think you're dreaming if you expect Duke to throw another shutout today like he did in his last outing, but he should be... well Duke. If anything I'd take the possibility of his last and only start against the Angels to be more likely. (I think the chance of them scoring 6 is highly unlikely however.) May 1st vs. LAA, Duchscherer surrendered six runs (one earned) on six hits (2 HRs) in five innings while striking out six, as the A's won 15-8. Duke's only given up 5 HRs all year. He's very well could give up #6 today. With an all-star bid, I'd be highly surprised to see Geren gamble with his 1st year reliever turned starter as he becomes the head of his rotation. If he stumbles early giving up a couple runs, he may get the 5 inning treatment.
Angels bullpen has been stumbling of late and could be dead until after the break. They'll definitely be dead after this game if Moseley can't give them 5 innings. For the A's Casilla has definitely lost something after missing a month with elbow soreness. A's do however have a full pen for this game. The Angels could be running tomorrow to get a couple of runs with the huge pitching mismatch. They've had very good success against Kurt/Bowen going 12-for-14 on stolen bases this year. Duke can keep them close, but when they run they're safe 75% of the time over his career. Despite this, I don't believe the Angels have the advantage in the starting or relief pitching today, and look ripe to give up at least 5 runs, at least 3-4 from Moseley before he gets yanked. Moseley has started 5 games this year, and only 1 of them fell short of 10 runs and he gave up at least 3 in all of them, never going more than 6 innings. He's also sporting a nice 5.58 ERA in over 70 innings for AAA.
The A's have done very good putting up 4.9 runs on average in day games so far this year, and are also averaging over 5 runs per game against the Angels this year. What do you think they'll do to Moseley? They've also allowed more runs against division opponents a high 4.2 runs per game, but I expect 3-4 from the Angels at most. I'm loaded with reasons to see at least a 8-9 run scoring game here with the A's putting up at least 5-6 of them, so I'm taking the low key number and the all-star at home. Duke and the pen may very well be dominant, and the A's may just want to start the break already resulting in a 1-0 game, but on Dave Stewart jersey day I think the atmosphere will be pretty lively in a key divisional game. I'm guessing somehow the A's hitting 8 of last 10 Unders, and the Angels hitting the Under 61% this year made the oddsmakers keep this total so low originally. I'm sure it'll jump once they get on the pitching change. Play it or fade it at your own risk guys and I never recommend going outside a 5% limit... but for the reasons above I'm on this game like white on rice. I thought about whether the parlay was a bad idea, but if one of these doesn't hit, I'm having a losing day already. If you look at the value, I think it's definitely worth it. I'm risking $1,045 to win $1,150 in hopes that the A's win in a game that scores 7 or more. That's +110 odds in a divided wager set that I think should be -140 or more. If the Angels win, this one has at least an 80-90% chance of going over I feel, so I'm making all 3 bets in belief that there is a very small chance the Angels win in a low scoring game. This is a risk I have to take. Good Luck gents!
OAKLAND ATHLETICS -130
RISKING $470 TO WIN $360
ANGELS/ATHLETICS - OVER 7 (-110)
*RISKING $395 TO WIN $360
ATHLETICS & OVER 7 - SAME GAME PARLAY (+240)
*RISKING $180 TO WIN $430
--
July ML = (8-5) +$1,300
July RL = (0-0) +$0
July O/U = (2-1) +$310
July Team O/U = (0-1) -$430
July H+R+E = (4-1) +$970
July Parlays = (2-1) +$820
--
Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $37,940
1% Bet Amount = $360
Bet Change @ $39,900 / $33,300
--
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