BIFF'S BASES - JUL. 11th

**Loaded Shooter** · 07-11-2008, 07:05 PM

Biff,
It is always sweet when the Predictem gang finds a sweet spot (a solid capper) to tap into. It seems as if that last post was like "check in later for another pick"

I always peek into your thread for your opinion and , by no means do I follow blindly, (although I should!:boog: according to my track record!)

You deserve much kudos for an incredible season. Just don't get a big head. Steady wins the race, and you are the epitomy of money management.

By the way, I am hammered and all my picks lost today, damnlit! :bang:

best of handicapping to you. I will not call it luck, as you have a heck of a lot of knowledge to offer us all.

Here is to you and an incredible second half!:beerbang:

**Biff_Tannen** · 07-11-2008, 09:02 PM

Aaah, I'm afraid my logic got the best of me with the Rays. I really thought they'd rebound in game 2 against a weaker opponent after dropping 4 in a row, but they seem to have stayed asleep on the road. It was a risky bet as I pointed out they are a much different team outside of Tampa, starting with that dropped ball by Crawford in the 2nd inning. Meanwhile Francisco and Peralta continue to swing well. Hope they wake up against the Tribe's pen.

I laid off the Under in the Royals game, statistically it was a very sound bet, I just was not sold on the situation or the condition of either bullpen. Since I couldn't get 9 at any sort of reasonable price, I just let that one pass. Unfortunately for me they are still 0-0 in the 5th. A lot of crazy shutouts tonight, who would think the Yanks, Stros, and Rays would all be shut out by sub .500 teams?

Next up on my card is the A's. They didn't give up Harden and Gaudin to not get any pitching in return. They got Murton & Patterson, catcher Donaldson, and they got Gallagher because they felt he could have amazing success in the Coliseum. You can say Billy Beane is an idiot for trading Swisher, Haren, and Harden (arguably their 3 best players last year) but look at the results. The A's are still in contention and seem to do a whole lot with very little. Both bullpens are taxed, which has ironically been the achilles heel of the Angels lately; granted most of the damage came in the bandbox in Arlington. I'm not sold on Garlands success on the road, and I don't expect to see him w/ a QS tonight. Seems like an easy spot for people to take the recently slugging Angels at plus money against the new "no-name" for Oakland. Some trends I liked... Athletics are 8-0 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series and Athletics are 25-8 in their last 33 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. I'm looking for them to continue their dominance in this situation tonight. Gametime... let's watch.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS -110

*RISKING $395 TO WIN $360

**Biff_Tannen** · 07-11-2008, 09:17 PM

Shooter... Thank you for your vote of confidence! I've been capping baseball for nearly a decade, and I've been hot and I've been cold. But I never try to get too wrapped up in how I'm doing because fact is, it's history. It's has little bearing on what could and will happen in the future. I just take it one day at a time, and while I do factor in historical data, I look more at the situational aspects. Sports teams are like any highly performance-based business in that changes are made daily, so only looking at stats and trends can get you caught up in a downward spiral expecting what happened last time to happen again. Like my signature says... half of life is luck and the other half is discipline. I keep deatiled splits of every bet I make so I can find opportunities where I've had success and only pursue those areas. It goes without saying that at least half of the games you win or lose will be due to good or bad luck, so when you become disciplined in your strategy, luck plays less of a role. Discipline = Trust = Consistency.

As far as money management, it took me a long time to realize that you should only put money on games that you feel very strongly about, and this shouldn't be more than 10% of all the games in a season for a specific sport. I was once told, you only know as much as you can teach to another. More I thought about it, the more I realized, I shouldn't be putting my hard-earned money on something I only think I know about. Also, I shouldn't be betting more on one game than another. Flat betting is definitely the way to go. I decided to take my game online because I've found that I stay more focused when I put my thoughts on "paper" on a daily basis. I chose predictem because it seemed like is had the least amount of "Langers" as I call them. Sites like Rx and Covers are flooded with them. I'm not looking to tout my picks to the world, I'm looking to help each other become more efficient and make betting on sports daily a joy instead of a chore. I know you're buzzed and this is a long read so I'll stop right there, because I could go on for days. Hope things turn around for you, I'm glad to help you when I can.

**Biff_Tannen** · 07-12-2008, 03:12 AM

Dropped $20 on a split night. I'm somewhat upset I laid off the Royals Under, but only thing to do is make note of the situation and move on. Going to be busy as all hell this weekend (one draw back of the real estate industry are the busy weekends). Hopefully I can squeeze in some time to get action on a few games. Good luck and good night.

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July ML = (8-4) +$1,660
July RL = (0-0) +$0
July O/U = (2-1) +$310
July Team O/U = (0-1) -$430
July H+R+E = (3-1) +$610
July Parlays = (2-1) +$820

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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $37,940

1% Bet Amount = $360

Bet Change @ $39,900 / $33,300

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BIFF'S BASES - JUL. 11th