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Thursday Baseball Discussions
I really want to try & post reasoning for my plays, as I seem to do better when I post reasoning. Today I have a little time, so I figured we could get something going throughout the day.
One game that I have my eye on is the Brewers/Zona matchup. I was on the over in games 1 & 2, then layed off last night completely. Tonight I have a couple strong leans in this one. Zona team over (4.5-105), & Webb on the ml. Of course Webb will be very public today, which always worries me. However I think the line is set a bit low, mainly because of Parra's 8-2 record. The Brewers did beat the DBacks @ home 10-1 last time Parra faced them. He went 7 innings, allowing just 4 hits & 1er. However, when I look into his stats a bit deeper, there are hints that Parra may be getting a bit too much respect. One is his 1.55 whip, & another is his road stats. 34.1 ip, 43 hits & 22 er. with an opp. ba of .321! In his last 4 road starts he has made it to the 6th inning one time. IMO this is where it could get ugly for the Brewers, because in the last 3 nights the pen has put quite some time in. McClung, Suppan & Bush have all gome under 5.2 ip, with 11 total inning of relief pitching. Possible tired pen for Zona to exploit.
Webb's home success has been well documented- he has struggled, getting hit hard vs the A's. I don't think he gets hit hard today. One thing he has going for him is the bats seem to warm up for Zona when he's on the mound. The Backs have scored 5+ runs in 5 of his 7 home starts. The two that failed to go over 4 runs scored? The A's blowout loss and a 4-0 cg shutout of Washington. Often there is a perception that a great pitcher will reult in an under, but 4 of Webb's home starts resulted in 8+ runs for Zona, so I wouldn't go anywhere the under in this one.
back in a second with a couple more thoughts...
One game that I have my eye on is the Brewers/Zona matchup. I was on the over in games 1 & 2, then layed off last night completely. Tonight I have a couple strong leans in this one. Zona team over (4.5-105), & Webb on the ml. Of course Webb will be very public today, which always worries me. However I think the line is set a bit low, mainly because of Parra's 8-2 record. The Brewers did beat the DBacks @ home 10-1 last time Parra faced them. He went 7 innings, allowing just 4 hits & 1er. However, when I look into his stats a bit deeper, there are hints that Parra may be getting a bit too much respect. One is his 1.55 whip, & another is his road stats. 34.1 ip, 43 hits & 22 er. with an opp. ba of .321! In his last 4 road starts he has made it to the 6th inning one time. IMO this is where it could get ugly for the Brewers, because in the last 3 nights the pen has put quite some time in. McClung, Suppan & Bush have all gome under 5.2 ip, with 11 total inning of relief pitching. Possible tired pen for Zona to exploit.
Webb's home success has been well documented- he has struggled, getting hit hard vs the A's. I don't think he gets hit hard today. One thing he has going for him is the bats seem to warm up for Zona when he's on the mound. The Backs have scored 5+ runs in 5 of his 7 home starts. The two that failed to go over 4 runs scored? The A's blowout loss and a 4-0 cg shutout of Washington. Often there is a perception that a great pitcher will reult in an under, but 4 of Webb's home starts resulted in 8+ runs for Zona, so I wouldn't go anywhere the under in this one.
back in a second with a couple more thoughts...
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