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I'm really thinking about betting on the Brew Crew again. Better pitching matchup yet the line is virtually the same? The Twins are a little more dangerous against RHP, and have been playing well. I also like Haren up against the Marlins w/o Uggla. They scare me in day road games however. For now, I can't ignore the O's glaring advantages.
Despite the fact that the Nats are 1-9 in games that Bergmann has started, the Nats are officially beat to ****. Bergmann actually tops Lannen's 2.6 with only getting 2.5 runs per game on average. They're having trouble scoring runs and just lost one of their only recent run producers in Milledge. Nationals are 2-13 in Bergmanns last 15 starts when they score 2 runs or less in their previous game. Now, take a look at this lineup. Where's the production going to come from? Their starting 3rd (Zimmerman), 4th (Johnson), 5th (Milledge), and 6th (Kearns) hitters are on the DL now.
NATIONALS
R. Bernadina cf // (AA call-up)
C. Guzman ss // .312
E. Dukes rf // .257
A. Boone 1b // .262 (sore knee)
K. Casto 3b // .209
W. Pena lf // .215
W. Harris 2b // .186
W. Nieves c // .274
(pitcher)
BENCH
P. Orr 3b // .111
F. Lopez 2b // .243
R. Belliard 3b // .205
D. Young 1b // .267
P. Lo Duca lf // .194
J. Flores c // .287
One trend that I've been watching is the O's play on Sundays. The Orioles haven't won on a Sunday since the first week of the season, losing on their past 11 Sunday games in a row. I don't think there can be an easier opponent today than the Nations to put up a W on a Sunday. Their bullpen is well rested with Cormier tossing 4 relief innings of 1 hit ball yesterday. When leading after 8 innings, the Orioles are 32-0 so far this year. That's amazing and 100% due to Johnson and Sherrill shutting teams down. Complete confidence in this bullpen this year.
What do the Nats have going for them? They've been at home for a week and are averaging 3 runs per game and only 11 total extra base hits. That's not going to win games for them w/ that bullpen. Also, not that they are still in contention, but Washington is flying to Miami after the game... possible look ahead strategy to the division series. Speaking of... Nats haven't won a series at home since May 1-4 against Pittsburgh. They're hitting .228 the last 5 games (6-for-31 w/ RISP). Slugging .373, and an OBP% of .307. They are rightfully the NL's worst offense and aren't getting any better today. Defense isn't doing much better with 8 errors in the last 5 games. And Nats backstops are only gunning down 10% of runners. Hopefully Roberts can take advantage as he was the only O's starter to not get a hit last night. I have no reason to think there won't be a repeat from last night. Looks like the game is going to get some rain, but the bad stuff isn't coming til around 4 PM. Hopefully they can get it in before then.
JUNE 29th
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -120
*RISKING $395 TO WIN $330
--
June ML = (14-14) +$385
June RL = (1-0) +$300
June O/U = (2-4) -$735
June H+R+E = (4-2) +$600
June Parlays = (4-2) +$1,095
--
Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $34,195
1% Bet Amount = $330
Bet Change @ $36,300 / $29,700
--
Despite the fact that the Nats are 1-9 in games that Bergmann has started, the Nats are officially beat to ****. Bergmann actually tops Lannen's 2.6 with only getting 2.5 runs per game on average. They're having trouble scoring runs and just lost one of their only recent run producers in Milledge. Nationals are 2-13 in Bergmanns last 15 starts when they score 2 runs or less in their previous game. Now, take a look at this lineup. Where's the production going to come from? Their starting 3rd (Zimmerman), 4th (Johnson), 5th (Milledge), and 6th (Kearns) hitters are on the DL now.
NATIONALS
R. Bernadina cf // (AA call-up)
C. Guzman ss // .312
E. Dukes rf // .257
A. Boone 1b // .262 (sore knee)
K. Casto 3b // .209
W. Pena lf // .215
W. Harris 2b // .186
W. Nieves c // .274
(pitcher)
BENCH
P. Orr 3b // .111
F. Lopez 2b // .243
R. Belliard 3b // .205
D. Young 1b // .267
P. Lo Duca lf // .194
J. Flores c // .287
One trend that I've been watching is the O's play on Sundays. The Orioles haven't won on a Sunday since the first week of the season, losing on their past 11 Sunday games in a row. I don't think there can be an easier opponent today than the Nations to put up a W on a Sunday. Their bullpen is well rested with Cormier tossing 4 relief innings of 1 hit ball yesterday. When leading after 8 innings, the Orioles are 32-0 so far this year. That's amazing and 100% due to Johnson and Sherrill shutting teams down. Complete confidence in this bullpen this year.
What do the Nats have going for them? They've been at home for a week and are averaging 3 runs per game and only 11 total extra base hits. That's not going to win games for them w/ that bullpen. Also, not that they are still in contention, but Washington is flying to Miami after the game... possible look ahead strategy to the division series. Speaking of... Nats haven't won a series at home since May 1-4 against Pittsburgh. They're hitting .228 the last 5 games (6-for-31 w/ RISP). Slugging .373, and an OBP% of .307. They are rightfully the NL's worst offense and aren't getting any better today. Defense isn't doing much better with 8 errors in the last 5 games. And Nats backstops are only gunning down 10% of runners. Hopefully Roberts can take advantage as he was the only O's starter to not get a hit last night. I have no reason to think there won't be a repeat from last night. Looks like the game is going to get some rain, but the bad stuff isn't coming til around 4 PM. Hopefully they can get it in before then.
JUNE 29th
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -120
*RISKING $395 TO WIN $330
--
June ML = (14-14) +$385
June RL = (1-0) +$300
June O/U = (2-4) -$735
June H+R+E = (4-2) +$600
June Parlays = (4-2) +$1,095
--
Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $34,195
1% Bet Amount = $330
Bet Change @ $36,300 / $29,700
--
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