7 Pitchers to never bet on - or against.

[Irish Brigade]

Pitcher I have learnt the hard way not to touch -

Bedard, Carlos Silva, Washburn (Yes the M's guys except for KING FELIX!). The jury is still out on RA Dickey. I do believe Bedard will prove an excellent trade though eventually!

Tim Wakefield
CC
Zito
Randy Johnson
Ted Lilly

Will think of more later I am sure!

Thnaks for starting this thread Biff. Invaluble info! :thumbs:

Brigade

[cavorca12]

Brandon Backe.....
:hide:

[Stifler's Mom]

I've been wanting to comment in this thread since it opened....just that I've been away and didn't have the time.

#1 thing for me is that way too many people base their plays on the starting pitcher ALONE. IMO, that is the biggest mistake you can make when betting bases. Most SP these days go what, 6 innings? Now granted if you're basing it on a guy like Halladay who often goes 8 or 9, it's far more relevant....but in reality, how many guys are there like that in the majors? The truth is that even alot of the "quality" SP's go about 6, and often like 5 and 1/3 and such. Now you have 3+ innings of low salary bullpen guys, many of whom made the team because they were the least sucky out of a bunch of guys who suck ass, parading their way out to the mound, often blowing leads and costing their team games.....yet it doesn't seem like too many people factor this into their plays.

Today for example, win or lose, Philly is easily the right play over Texas using this particular approach. Texas has the worst bullpen in baseball (4.90 era) while Philly has the best (2.62 era). Do you really think Moyer or Hurley are gonna see the 8th inning today? Even the 7th? Therefore you have a huge pitching advantage with the Phillies for what I can project to be at least 1/3 of the game. Factor in that the Phils offensive numbers from the 7th inning on, and there's even more of a chance of them taking advantage of the piss poor Rangers bullpen.

As far as this "list" goes. I agree, to a point. Perez and Wakefield are both capable of both greatness and ****bagness at any given time, no doubt about it, but that's about where it ends imho.

The rest of these guys (minus maybe the still young Kendrick) are ****in stiffs. So what if Jorge De La Rosa had a few good starts. He sucks ass. Fade him when the odds are right. If the books are gonna open this ass clown as a fave, or a small dog, cash in. Same with McDung, Davies, and the god awful Brian Moehler. These guys had a few good starts, not became Cy Young candidates. The fact remains that they suck, and 2 or 3 good starts doesn't change that.

Just my 2 cents. I could probably go on, but my posts tend to get too long to read, lol

[cavorca12]

OK... Saw this and had several things to contribute, but I've was busy the past few weeks. Decided to take some time off, and the end of IL play seemed like a convenient time to come back. Anyway, here are two things I've picked up and use that IMO were interesting and might be of help...

1) This season, home teams have done very well and have a very good record on Sundays. No idea if this goes back to any past seasons, but IMO this definitely makes sense considering the balance we've had thus far and the comfort of home at the close of a series and week. Could be a decent value spot to possibly play some more home dogs.

2) Home favorites on 4+ game win streaks have won money over the course of a season on a consistent basis going back several years. I try to look for this spot with reasonable ML's under -150.


There are also several sites I've found that have very good info on specific team splits, i.e. W/L & avg R scored for home/away vs LHP & RHP, W/L for days-of-the-week, day/night team W/L going back several seasons, and several more.

I'm not sure of the rules for posting web links, but if someone could let me know I'd be more than happy to post the best ones on for each separate stat/info.

Thanks and GL everyone! :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

Great post Stif... I have been guilty of putting too much emphasis on the sp, as I'm sure plenty of us have. The thing to remember is that the books know that the average bettor will look to back a solid sp, so often these lines are the most inflated.


One thing I noticed is that most everyone is quick to throw Zito on the list of pitchers to fade, but I'm not sure he should be an auto fade. While he has been pretty much horrendous to start the season, he has shown signs of turning things around. Now I am not saying he'll rattle off 8 straight wins, but has anyone else noticed his recent road performances? In his last 5 road starts the Giants are 4-1, & he's pitched 29 innings & allowed 10 er. Not the best of numbers, but he's getting the job done. The Giants as a road dog get at least a look from me every single time, as they are a .500 road team! There are just 5 other teams that are .500 or better on the road in all of baseball! I don't think many have noticed this yet, as they continue to get rather generous dog lines on the road. Based on public perception, many would much rather play on the Red Sox, White Sox, Mets Cubs etc. on the road, despite the fact they have losing road records & continue to be predominantly small road faves! (I must point out that at home SF are different story @ 14-24.) I guess I am a firm believer that you can't take the same approach for a long period of time, as things have a way of correcting themselves.

[Stifler's Mom]

That is definitely what I was saying. A great SP will certainly inflate the line. I'm not saying ignore the SP....just that there are so many ways to find plays worth playing, and SP is only one of them.

IMO Zito, while he's certainly not the elite pitcher he showed signs of early on with the A's, belongs nowhere near a fade list that includes the likes of Seth McDung and Jorge De La Rosa!! If anything, Zito is great value at this point, with the public really down on him, and the fact that he's not pitching for a contender, yet the Giants continue to chug along at a .500 clip on the road and are also putting up some pretty respectable offensive numbers.

I know that personally, I'd sure rather play Zito and SF on the road at like +150 than Brandon Webb or Dan Haren at -150 or more. Not because Webb or Haren are the problem, but because the rest of the D'backs are. They're really not that good of a team, and they're definitely not any better than SF at this point in the season. Arizona is 21-33 in their last 54 games and a mere 17-26 on the road. They are also just 21-33 against anyone NOT in the NL west. I don't see how anything that team has done in the last 2 months gains them road fave status, yet a hot start to the season and some big name SP's have this Arizona bunch overvalued just about every day now, while perception that Zito and SF suck will have them drawing dog lines all season long, even though the 2 teams are probably about evenly matched when it comes right down to it.

The way I see it, as a handicapper, the earlier you are able to adjust to what's really going on (ie Zito improving), the sooner (and the more) you will be able to profit from the lethargic masses (the public) standing around wondering what the hell is actually going on....until they finally do catch on and the market adjusts accordingly.