JML Friday >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

MLB YTD: 135-132, -35.86 Units


Blue Jays -134 (Burnett) vs Cubs - 5 Units
I NEVER cap this way, lol...but I actually came online today to put a small fade on the Jays, and play the CUBS as (what I thought would be) a small road fave. Why this Jays team is favoured is a mystery to me tonight....but I'm changing my play, and backing the books. Everything points to a Cubs win, IMO...yet they get one of their biggest DOG lines of the year??

Jays back in a major slump, losing 8 of 11, including losing their last series at Skydome to lowly Seattle. Jays bats ice-cold again unable to hit worth a **** with RISP, and Burnett comes into tonight off his worst outing off the year, and a mocking gesture to the crowd after they gave him a "bronx cheer" on his way off the field after getting yanked. Big talk of trying to unload him to a "real" contender, and the crowd might not be very nice to him tonight.

Cubs come into Toronto as MLB's best team, facing a struggling team, a struggling pitcher who will likely be booed, and come in as MLB's best bats, and a starter whi has pitched well. And they're dogged this much? Usually I would be all over Chicago, but I have to believe there is a reason Burnett is favoured by so much against a much better team...so I'll go with it. Looks like the public is on Chicago as well, yet the line has moved against the Jays at both of my books?? What is going on? Home/away? Nope...Cubs playing better on the road...and Jays no better at home. Injuries? Nope...Soriano the only guy out for the Cubs where the Jays are missing LF Stewart, 2B Hill and C Zaun.

Burnett might not get many cheers tonight...but Reed Johnson sure will...

[Stifler's Mom]

I believe the fact that TOR is an AL team and playing at home gains them some line respect with the oddsmakers. I also think the name Burnett doesn't hurt in their (or the public's) minds either.

Granted, the Flubs are a team that is 9 times out of 10 backed by the public as well.

I saw it (as many of these interleague lines are) as just a flat line....where the home AL team with the big name and highly paid pitcher are favored to the tune of -130 or -135. Really the line hasn't moved much and the public is nearly split (56% on CHC ML, but 69% on TOR RL), so this line is doing it's job of getting action on both sides it would seem.

And, I am willing to bet that 80% of the people who wagered on that game (on either TOR or CHC) didn't take into account any, or very little, of the intangible factors you mentioned above either, for whatever that's worth.

Oh well. GL with it. One of us will win that one, lol

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah...I suppose the "AL" vs "NL" in an AL park does have some clout. Even though that AL team is playing some horrible baseball, and the NL team is the best they have to offer. I can see a near pick'em, but the Cubs getting a quarter seemed crazy to me (usually meaning a big bet on the Cubs, lol), but then I thought it must be that way for a reason...

I don't know....as you know I never do this kind of thing, going opposite on what i think is a wrong line....but I am tonight! :dunno:


GL...win the rest bro! :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Red Sox +116 (Masterson) vs Reds
Gotta take a stab at the big bad bats of Boston in a hitter's park like Great American at this price...especially against a struggling Harang.....and Masterson's been good for the Bosox since joining the rotation...

3 Units


Let's go AL EAST