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Well, I have already reached the 60 play mark for this month, and I don't like to go over that number too much. I am going to try and keep it to 1 play a day for the last 4 days. I may take a day off tomorrow.
As for tonight, I'm sticking with the H+R+E plays that I've had a good beat on so far this year. Odalis Perez has been dealt some bum hands despite pitching pretty well. A couple back to back blow-up starts on the road have made his ERA and WHIP look much more reflective of his 1-4 record. He's done quite well outside those two starts. His opposing batting average is under .300 for the first time in 3 years. His K/9 is higher as is his K/BB ratio.
His only drawback is that he lives on the outside and can produce walks. Lucky for me San Diego is the worst hitting team in the NL against LHP. The Padres have only had 408 at bats against lefties. The Padres average 1 walk every 11 batters against LHP, and average 1 strikeout every 4 batters. By far the worst in the NL.
On top of that the Padres and Nationals are two of the worst hitting teams in the NL for the month of May, as well as against LHP on the year. Padres are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Nationals are 1-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Pretty safe to say that's from a lack of offense.
The Padres have never stolen a base against a LHP, so they won't be moving up w/o giving up an out most likely. That'll cut down on the runs. Estes is a solid GB pitcher, and Nationals are the #1 team for groundballs in the NL. They hit into a lot of DP, and San Diego has turned it's fair share of those. That'll kill innings and could turn a walk into two outs. San Diego is the #1 fielding team in the NL, Washington close behind is #3 in the NL.
Dan Iassonga is behind the plate and calls a huge 2.24 K per BB. Way over the league average of 1.5 K per BB. Put all this in a pitchers park like Petco and I think I got a winner here. Good Luck.
MAY 28th
NATIONALS/PADRES - TOTAL H+R+E - UNDER 25½ (-115)
*RISKING $345 TO WIN $300
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May ML = (18-18) +$220
May RL = (1-3) -$570
May O/U = (3-4) -$420
May H+R+E = (4-2) +$450
May Parlays = (4-3) +$855
--
Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $32,385
1% Bet Amount = $300
Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000
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As for tonight, I'm sticking with the H+R+E plays that I've had a good beat on so far this year. Odalis Perez has been dealt some bum hands despite pitching pretty well. A couple back to back blow-up starts on the road have made his ERA and WHIP look much more reflective of his 1-4 record. He's done quite well outside those two starts. His opposing batting average is under .300 for the first time in 3 years. His K/9 is higher as is his K/BB ratio.
His only drawback is that he lives on the outside and can produce walks. Lucky for me San Diego is the worst hitting team in the NL against LHP. The Padres have only had 408 at bats against lefties. The Padres average 1 walk every 11 batters against LHP, and average 1 strikeout every 4 batters. By far the worst in the NL.
On top of that the Padres and Nationals are two of the worst hitting teams in the NL for the month of May, as well as against LHP on the year. Padres are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Nationals are 1-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Pretty safe to say that's from a lack of offense.
The Padres have never stolen a base against a LHP, so they won't be moving up w/o giving up an out most likely. That'll cut down on the runs. Estes is a solid GB pitcher, and Nationals are the #1 team for groundballs in the NL. They hit into a lot of DP, and San Diego has turned it's fair share of those. That'll kill innings and could turn a walk into two outs. San Diego is the #1 fielding team in the NL, Washington close behind is #3 in the NL.
Dan Iassonga is behind the plate and calls a huge 2.24 K per BB. Way over the league average of 1.5 K per BB. Put all this in a pitchers park like Petco and I think I got a winner here. Good Luck.
MAY 28th
NATIONALS/PADRES - TOTAL H+R+E - UNDER 25½ (-115)
*RISKING $345 TO WIN $300
--
May ML = (18-18) +$220
May RL = (1-3) -$570
May O/U = (3-4) -$420
May H+R+E = (4-2) +$450
May Parlays = (4-3) +$855
--
Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $32,385
1% Bet Amount = $300
Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000
--