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Both early picks I liked yesterday game through, so I'm playing the one I like today. Put this one in a couple of hours ago.
One of these two starters has got to see his run support dry up. The Twins have gone 8-2 in Livan's 10 starts because they have produced a league leading* 7.34 runs on average during them. Padilla, just a few behind, is 7th highest* in the AL with 6.18 average runs on average and also sports a 5-0 in his last 5 and 8-2 overall.
*(Min. 40 IP)
In this matchup the Over has gone 6-0 so far this year... last year in 9 games the Over was 1-7-1. Did these teams beef up that much? Minnesota certainly didn't. I really want to pull the trigger on the Under as well, but fact of the matter is that I can't bet an Under with Livan pitching. His Ks have gone to zero lately and he's giving up 8+ hits 5 starts in a row. With runners on base opponents are hitting .357 off him. Padilla is the exact opposite only giving up a .202 average with runners on base. 60% QS ain't bad for him. Rangers were swinging away yesterday, they are going to have to have the same approach against Livan. He throws crap, but its over the plate.
Now as much as I wanted to play the Rangers 1st 5 Innings only, Livan is going to pitch 6-7 innings even if he gives up 5 runs. His junk only gets more hittable as the game goes on, the splits prove it. So despite the Rangers having the most blown saves in the AL, I think Livan becomes increasingly valuable in those 6-7th innings warranting a full game bet. Rangers pen should be good to go coming off a days rest thanks to Ponson's complete game and they have been very good in May. (Didn't think I'd say that this year.)
Rangers have scored the most runs from the 7th inning on in the AL so far this year, so they are always a late threat. I think this is seen as an ace at home against the Rangers 2-3rd pitcher, but Padilla has been the best in Arlington, and he'll probably get shopped the way he's pitching. He won't keep up the pace he's been on, but I think he'll be good enough to get make it 6 in a row.
TEXAS RANGERS -105
*RISKING $315 TO WIN $300
--
May ML = (14-15) -$255
May RL = (1-2) -$270
May O/U = (3-4) -$420
May H+R+E = (2-0) +$600
May Parlays = (2-2) +$330
--
Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $31,830
1% Bet Amount = $300
Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000
--
One of these two starters has got to see his run support dry up. The Twins have gone 8-2 in Livan's 10 starts because they have produced a league leading* 7.34 runs on average during them. Padilla, just a few behind, is 7th highest* in the AL with 6.18 average runs on average and also sports a 5-0 in his last 5 and 8-2 overall.
*(Min. 40 IP)
In this matchup the Over has gone 6-0 so far this year... last year in 9 games the Over was 1-7-1. Did these teams beef up that much? Minnesota certainly didn't. I really want to pull the trigger on the Under as well, but fact of the matter is that I can't bet an Under with Livan pitching. His Ks have gone to zero lately and he's giving up 8+ hits 5 starts in a row. With runners on base opponents are hitting .357 off him. Padilla is the exact opposite only giving up a .202 average with runners on base. 60% QS ain't bad for him. Rangers were swinging away yesterday, they are going to have to have the same approach against Livan. He throws crap, but its over the plate.
Now as much as I wanted to play the Rangers 1st 5 Innings only, Livan is going to pitch 6-7 innings even if he gives up 5 runs. His junk only gets more hittable as the game goes on, the splits prove it. So despite the Rangers having the most blown saves in the AL, I think Livan becomes increasingly valuable in those 6-7th innings warranting a full game bet. Rangers pen should be good to go coming off a days rest thanks to Ponson's complete game and they have been very good in May. (Didn't think I'd say that this year.)
Rangers have scored the most runs from the 7th inning on in the AL so far this year, so they are always a late threat. I think this is seen as an ace at home against the Rangers 2-3rd pitcher, but Padilla has been the best in Arlington, and he'll probably get shopped the way he's pitching. He won't keep up the pace he's been on, but I think he'll be good enough to get make it 6 in a row.
TEXAS RANGERS -105
*RISKING $315 TO WIN $300
--
May ML = (14-15) -$255
May RL = (1-2) -$270
May O/U = (3-4) -$420
May H+R+E = (2-0) +$600
May Parlays = (2-2) +$330
--
Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $31,830
1% Bet Amount = $300
Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000
--
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