Florida is a dog?

[rawhide]

I'm admittingly not much of a B/B capper. So can someone tell me why Florida is the Dog against the Blue crew today. Both pitchers going in opposite directions and LA bad road record.

Would love some EXPERT advise before I go head over heals on this game-

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[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I agree...I had the Marlins circled too....thinking about adding it. The only thing I can see is that LA has been hitting lefties well this year (second best in MLB at .316). Billingsley also has good career numbers against the fish, and Olsen has been hammered by LA over his career. Something to consider, but I like Florida as the homedog.

GL :thumbs:

[cavorca12]

Well, I'll give my reasoning since I am on the LAD...

Billingsley was on my list of SP I planned to give a look at the start of this season, hoping to find some value. IMO Billingsley is better than his numbers and how season has gone thus far. His first 2 appearances were in relief, and then in his 1st start, he got shelled at AZ when they were an extremely hot hitting club. That was also the last start for Doug Davis before his surgery, so AZ understandably wanted to put up some runs for him. His other 3 starts were a 1-0 L to SD, a 4-1 L at Atl, and a 6-4 L to AZ w/ 12 K's in 6 IP. Seems he should be rounding back into shape after the early season relief usage. I like the spot for him here since BB's have long been an issue, but Fla doesn't BB much and K's a lot -- edge for Billingsley.

IMO Fla's record is a little better than it should be, and SP Olsen IMO should come back to earth any time now. Add in that LAD have hit lefties well, and I had enough for a play. Checked out how several Fla hitters have fared vs Billingsley, and I didn't see anything that scared me off. True, I'm not crazy about the LAD road play or the cross country trip to Fla, but I thought the +'s outweighed the -'s by enough of an amount for me to play the LAD.

GL! :thumbs:

[rawhide]

Thanks JML and Cav, great points!

Made a ton tailing your foots last year JML-

Thank you!

Rawhide:thumbs:

[cavorca12]

Oh yea... And if you have ESPN Insider, there is some good info on Olsen from Inside Edge today. Here it is, sorry if there is anything wrong with posting it:

2. Great Scott?

By all accounts, Marlins southpaw Scott Olsen had a successful rookie season in 2006. By all accounts, he had an awful sophomore follow-up that was marred not only by inconsistency on the mound, but immaturity off it. Five starts into 2008, Olsen's record sits at 3-0 with a 2.06 ERA. His strong start has the Marlins excited about his potential once again, but there is reason to wonder whether he's for real.
Olsen relies heavily on a nasty slider that has baffled hitters. He struck out an impressive 8.27 batters per nine innings in 2006, largely because of his slider, which resulted in a strikeout on 58.9 percent of the at-bats that ended on the pitch. With two strikes, opposing batters had almost no chance against the pitch, whiffing 74.5 percent of the time and hitting just five balls hard in 98 at-bats that ended with the slider.
After throwing the slider for a strike just 54 percent of the time in 2007, Olsen is much more effective this year (71 percent). The bad news? He's no longer striking anyone out. Despite getting just one hit in 15 at-bats ending with a slider in 2008, opposing hitters have punched out just four times, which is a big part of the reason Olsen has fanned just 13 hitters in 35 innings.
He's also walked 13 batters, which begs the question: If he's striking out less than four batters per start and walking an equal amount, how is he 3-0?
There could be some luck involved. Olsen has been getting away with a lot of pitches over the middle of the plate in 2008.

Opposing batting average by location
Location 2008 2007 2006
Middle/Middle .118 .434 .425
Middle/In .143 .357 .304

But to Olsen's credit, the lefty has done a great job with runners in scoring position, holding hitters to just two hits in 22 at-bats in such situations in 2008. Even when forced to rely on his unremarkable fastball with runners on second and/or third base, the Marlins' lefty has held opponents to a batting average of just .077 (1-for-13), compared to .347 and .317 in 2007 and 2006, respectively.
When you consider he suffered a shoulder injury that cost him some time during spring training (which might help explain why he's lost nearly three mph on his fastball since 2006), you shouldn't be too surprised if Olsen's ERA begins to climb if hitters can locate his pitches.
The Marlins' ace will take on the Dodgers on Wednesday for the first time since last season, when he allowed three runs in the first inning in Los Angeles and left the game with back stiffness.