~~ BIFF'S BASES - APR. 30th ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

I've made it through April and happy with the results. Be even sweeter to finish with a strong day and maybe, just maybe reach my 3K goal for the month. Going to start with what I think is the biggest pitching mismatch of the day. Laying a little bit extra, but I like what the Twins did last night, and I think there's going to be more of the same today. Blackburn is a young buck waiting to make a name for himself, and Masset is spot-starting C-grade long relief. I'll take the Twinkies at home with the ground-baller any day. Better base running team and a better pen make this an easy choice for me again today. Good Luck. :thumbs:


APRIL 30th

MINNESOTA TWINS -130

*RISKING $390 to win $300


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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $32,145


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

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April ML Record (25-19) +$1,530
April RL Record (1-2) -$240
April O/U Record (7-3) +$1,155
April Parlay Record (0-1) -$300

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[Daws1089]

i wouldn't say you are laying too much. -130 is a pretty good deal considering most books are at -135 to -145.

gl

[Biff_Tannen]

I picked it up early this morning... a little before 9 AM EST.

By laying extra I just meant I was laying some chalk. I believe I've only laid -130 one other time in the past week.

Good Luck today Daws. :thumbs:

[Biff_Tannen]

Twinkies hang on... taking a slumping Toronto squad against sick boy Dice-K who has yet to see his team lose so far this year. Toronto usually does well in Boston, and with a stronger lineup tonight, getting plus money seems like a very solid value. McGowan struggles on the road somewhat, but I think he should be able to handle this lineup tonight granted he can throw strikes. Good Luck.


TORONTO BLUE JAYS +145

*RISKING $300 to win $435

[Biff_Tannen]

Really glad Cleveland decided to pull it's head out of it's ass tonight... bastards. I was this close to pulling the trigger on them RL again tonight and now I can just kick myself for having bad luck... and bad timing.

I'll be very upset if McGowan gets a loss. They are leaving him in in the 8th after getting behind the first three hitters for the first time all game.

Last one tonight. This line has dropped too low for me. I know these games are close, I follow the A's daily. I know Santana has dominated the A's in his career, going 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 10 appearances - allowing just one run in his last 23 1/3 innings against them. However, he has slipped up on the road in the past. He's at home tonight... but has done good on the road so far this year. He could break out, but after his last performance, when will he take a dip? As for the A's, Eveland's stats are a little better than his stuff in my opinion. He's been inconsistent so far in his career, and I don't think a move to the AL will cure those problems. He stuff can become very hittable, and I think it will be tonight. He hasn't seen a game go over 8 runs yet this year. This doesn't mean I like the Angels to win this one, means I think this game will be close, and getting an even number is very nice... especially at even money. I don't need sportsbook spy or wagerline to tell me 70% of bets are coming in the Angels ML and RL. So why only a -150 line? I'm putting out a 5-4 Angels win, with the possibility for the Angels to light up the boards. They very well could cover this number themselves tonight I think. A's usually respond well off being shutout, I hope they do so again tonight. While this series is an under series, (27-9 in the last 36 meetings in Anaheim) the over is 9-4-1 in Santanas last 14 starts after LAA allowed 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Angels last 5 when opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game overall. I think those situational trends are just as applicable as the general series numbers every one looks at. Somehow I think this one gets up there. Good Luck.


ATHLETICS/ANGELS - OVER 8 (+100)

*RISKING $300 to win $300

[Biff_Tannen]

When it comes to my money, I stay very objective... but I HATE THE RED SOX. Don't know what it is... just something about them. They seem to have more undeserved wins as well as pathetic losses than any other team in the majors. To say they had momentum in their favor at all in that game before the 9th would be a joke. Anyone else in that boat? :puke:



(Mainly just pissed they ruined my chances at 3K this month.)

[Daws1089]

I don't want this to sound offensive or rude in anyway, but how come you don't just take your winnings when your first play hits for the day and come back tomorrow? I remember you were pretty good about this in nba. Just my 2 cents though.:thumbs:

[Biff_Tannen]

Daws... the reason I make more than 1 play in baseball is because I follow the sport more and I don't lay big chalk for the most part. In basketball, I really only track a fews teams from day to day. Also betting spreads, if you go 1-1 you lose money. You go 2-1 you don't make as much as going 1-0. So you can see it makes sense there to just make 1 pick a day. In baseball, You can go 1-1 and make money. You can go 2-1 and make more money than going 1-0. Also, with so many games in the season, I feel I have a better chance of making money if I take advantage of most of the opportunities I see. I don't have the time to break it down right now, but I'm about 95% sure I've done better this month due to playing more than 1 a day. I don't always make 2 or 3 plays, especially if there is a short card. I also virtually never make more than 3 plays. There just isn't enough situations or time in a day for me to feel safe betting on more. I'll admit I got slightly greedy today going for the 3K level I was aiming for this month with the Jays play. I still stand by the Jays pick and the Over pick tonight. I don't chase loses. Jays got another late blow tonight after a great start from McGowan, and the A's have been hitting Santana VERY hard. Just right at people. Eveland as well has proven to be very hittable tonight. It's something I should look at seeing as we are a month in the season, so I'll try and figure out how I'm doing on my 1st... 2nd... and 3rd picks of the day. When I figure it out, I'll post. I got tons of splits already, that's one I should add to my tracking. So I appreciate the concern, but don't worry... I've been doing this long enough I know what I'm doing.


...Take a look at my POD record. It's not that good. That's why I don't have a POD in baseball. Flat bets. Try and stick to plus money odds, and you should be alright.

[FlushingHearts]

I was with you Biff on the Jays. McGowan was solid and a great value play at +150.. when they got runners at 2nd and 3rd in the 8th with no outs, I thought they would close it out. Oh well, it all evens out by the end of the season...... hopefully.

GL tomorrow :beerbang:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Jays have great pitching and no bats....what a frustrating team....cause there seems like value with the starters listed and a decent bullpen, but this team cannot hit with RISP....brutal.

Good call on the Twinkies! :thumbs:

[Biff_Tannen]

Johnny, the Jays had a few shots to the wall... just couldn't find the holes in that little outfield. Some how Fenway makes ManRam look better than he really is I think.... just cause he knows how to play there so well. He took a few shots in the gaps away cause he was already shading towards center. Only way to do damage in that field is down the lines. or in the deep deep center. Frustrating to end the month with 3 1-run games. Sometime soon I'd like some of those 13-1 finishes I've been seeing. All in good time I guess. Not a bad first month. Always has been my worst month and always will be I guess as history never fails to repeat itself. Here's some splits on how I did.

*I count O/U plays as home team plays when attributing them to a team since I'm betting on the weather and ball park conditions.

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ML Favorites (16-12) = +$200 approx.
>>Home (13-7)
>>Away (3-5)

ML Underdogs (10-8) = +$1,185 approx.
>>Home (5-3)
>>Away (5-5)

Overs (2-3) = -$375 approx.

Unders (5-1) = +$1,135 approx.

2-Team Parlays (0-1) = -$300 approx.


My best teams this month... TWINS (4-0)... RAYS (4-1)... PHILLIES (3-0)
My worst teams this month... INDIANS (0-2)... BLUE JAYS (0-2)... ROCKIES (2-4)


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Starting Bankroll = $30,000

Current Bankroll = $31,845


1% Bet Amount = $300

Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000

--

April ML Record (26-20) +$1,530
April RL Record (1-2) -$240
April O/U Record (7-4) +$855
April Parlay Record (0-1) -$300


APRIL TOTAL = +$1,845

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