Tweet
ytd 89-98 (-17.10 units)
Nationals +115
The Flubs apparent success vs LHP this year seems to be a bit of a smokescreen, since most of it came against Tom Gorzelanny and Matt Chico, both of whom suck and are both sporting ERA's at least double the price of a gallon of gas for the season. They did get to Zack Duke, who the jury is still out on IMO with his mixed success, but were practically blanked by Cole Hamels.
LHP Lannan has pitched a few good starts in a row now, and at a dog line and Ted Lilly as the opposing starter, I'm more than willing to see what he can do against the Flubs lineup this afternoon.
KC Royals -105
No offense to any of the Toronto fans here, but is there a team in the majors playing worse ball than the Jays right now? They haven't won yet on this road trip, and I'm not sure what makes today the day they're gonna win one either.
Texas -130
This is more of a situational play for me, than any type of statistical one. The Rangers need a win here badly, and after the way they gave the game away yesterday (a ton of errors, then losing by 6 in extras), I think they will come out more focused today.
Twins are always a solid team, and I fully expect their best effort as well, but I also like the chances of Livan to give up a few long balls today in Arlington, as I have no idea how his blooper balls and smoke and mirrors pitching has gotten him to 3-0 and a 3.55 era so far this season, with the Twins winning each of his 5 starts.
Like I said, more of a spot play for me....nothing statistically solid to back it up.
Plus, seeing 70% back a road dog is nearly always an automatic fade for me, as there's pretty much always something the public is blatantly overlooking as to why this team is dogged in the first place.
St Louis/Houston over 9 -105
It wouldn't shock me to see either pitcher in this one get completely lit up, and I certainly don't think either one is gonna throw a shutout.
First of all we have Brandon Backe, who has always been relatively crappy on the road. Then factor in his season WHIIP of 1.73 (15 walks allowed and 30 hits given up in 26 innings pitched), and I don't see how his ERA isn't double digits. He must be doing a good job of pitching out of jams so far, but allowing nearly 2 guys to reach base in EVERY INNING YOU PITCH is going to eventually spell disaster....and probably sooner rather than later.
I don't think much of Kyle Lohse either, on the other hand, which is why I didn't lay the chalk with St Louis, but rather opted for the over. Houston's offense has been clicking all week, and I'm hoping at the very least that they can muster up some runs off the very pedestrian Lohse today.
Colorado +100
Very rarely do I just fade a pitcher, but Esteban Loaiza just sucks. I don't see how he's gonna go more than like 4 innings either. I'll give the crappy Rockies a shot at even money.
2 units each
Could have a few more yet....i'm not sure
Nationals +115
The Flubs apparent success vs LHP this year seems to be a bit of a smokescreen, since most of it came against Tom Gorzelanny and Matt Chico, both of whom suck and are both sporting ERA's at least double the price of a gallon of gas for the season. They did get to Zack Duke, who the jury is still out on IMO with his mixed success, but were practically blanked by Cole Hamels.
LHP Lannan has pitched a few good starts in a row now, and at a dog line and Ted Lilly as the opposing starter, I'm more than willing to see what he can do against the Flubs lineup this afternoon.
KC Royals -105
No offense to any of the Toronto fans here, but is there a team in the majors playing worse ball than the Jays right now? They haven't won yet on this road trip, and I'm not sure what makes today the day they're gonna win one either.
Texas -130
This is more of a situational play for me, than any type of statistical one. The Rangers need a win here badly, and after the way they gave the game away yesterday (a ton of errors, then losing by 6 in extras), I think they will come out more focused today.
Twins are always a solid team, and I fully expect their best effort as well, but I also like the chances of Livan to give up a few long balls today in Arlington, as I have no idea how his blooper balls and smoke and mirrors pitching has gotten him to 3-0 and a 3.55 era so far this season, with the Twins winning each of his 5 starts.
Like I said, more of a spot play for me....nothing statistically solid to back it up.
Plus, seeing 70% back a road dog is nearly always an automatic fade for me, as there's pretty much always something the public is blatantly overlooking as to why this team is dogged in the first place.
St Louis/Houston over 9 -105
It wouldn't shock me to see either pitcher in this one get completely lit up, and I certainly don't think either one is gonna throw a shutout.
First of all we have Brandon Backe, who has always been relatively crappy on the road. Then factor in his season WHIIP of 1.73 (15 walks allowed and 30 hits given up in 26 innings pitched), and I don't see how his ERA isn't double digits. He must be doing a good job of pitching out of jams so far, but allowing nearly 2 guys to reach base in EVERY INNING YOU PITCH is going to eventually spell disaster....and probably sooner rather than later.
I don't think much of Kyle Lohse either, on the other hand, which is why I didn't lay the chalk with St Louis, but rather opted for the over. Houston's offense has been clicking all week, and I'm hoping at the very least that they can muster up some runs off the very pedestrian Lohse today.
Colorado +100
Very rarely do I just fade a pitcher, but Esteban Loaiza just sucks. I don't see how he's gonna go more than like 4 innings either. I'll give the crappy Rockies a shot at even money.
2 units each
Could have a few more yet....i'm not sure
Comment