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I'm finally piecing together a decent month, but I'm going to need an awesome last 5 days if I want to have any chance at making it to my $3,000 goal. Just going to take it 1 day at a time and hope I hit a hot streak. Here's what I've got on tap for Sunday. I may have one more, put these in early cause I liked the lines.
The Rockies seem prime today. Loaiza has only started 1 game so far this year. Coming in from the pen is a very different experience, and I'm surprised Torre made the move to swap him and Kuo in the first place. Loaiza's arm strength has to have deteriorated since his last start on the 7th. He's only pitched 10 innings in three relief appearances in just about 3 weeks. Combine that with the fact that Loaiza has fallen off the horse since his all-star season in 2003, and I think expecting him to toss a quality start today is asking way too much. Dodgers went 0-4 in his four starts at Dodger stadium last year. Dodgers have been worse at the plate during the day historically, and their success against LHP isn't a returning trend from last year. Nomar is out for good it seems, which means more young Dewitt.
Francis has had a rough start to the season, but he has never seen his team lose 4 of his starts in a single month in his entire career. (110 starts) He'll be facing that challenge today. Francis was very good during the day in 2007, with a record of 8-0. Dodgers 1st inning rampage last night will definitely sparks some weekend bettors interest. However, the only guy to get 2 hits in the game was Brad Penny. I can't fathom why this line is essentially a pick'em, but I won't think twice on this game. Rockies have become a team that expects to win, and avoiding a divisional sweep seems like an occasion they'd rise to. Rockies have started out 3-8 against the NL West (1-5 against Arizona) so far this year after going 45-30 against the NL West last year. If they have a chance of righting their ship, it has to be with their ace on the mound against what has become essentially a spot starter.
I'm also on the Rangers, as just another fade of Livan Hernandez, and in Texas of all places. Stubborn I know, I'm 0-3 fading him so far, but put him in Arlington and combine that with the fact that he's given up 4 homers in his last two starts, and things could get ugly. I'm not ready to give up on him yet, because I know that when I do he'll start getting shelled. I want to be there when it happens. Now Livan has seen his team win 6 games in a row in his starts 3 times over the past three years, but never 7 games. That means that if he wins this game, I'll be betting the house on him to NOT make career history. He's not at his biggest, but he is at his oldest. However, I honestly hope it doesn't come to that, and I don't think it will. Twins won yesterday thanks to a horrid showing by the Rangers pen and 3 errors which lead to 5 unearned runs. Ironically, the last and only time the Twins scored 10+ runs this year, Livan shutout the Royals 5-0 on the road. I'm not sure if Gomez is out still tomorrow, but if he isn't, he likely won't be testing his hamstring or calf or whatever the hell he injured.
Padilla has struggled (esp. in his last outing), which kept the line around -120 at opening I think. Sharps seem to pound it quickly to -135 offshores. Rangers are 4-1 in Padilla's last 5 home starts, the one loss coming in the only home start he's had of his 5 so far this year. Texas' offense is usually money at home, but they haven't had the pitching yet this season to keep them in games. Please let today be the day. At home they've only given up 7 HRs in 10 games. That's tied for best in the AL w/ Chicago. Runline seems very tempting, but I won't get greedy against Livan just yet. Good Luck. :th:
APRIL 27th
COLORADO ROCKIES -105
*RISKING $315 to win $300
TEXAS RANGERS -120
*RISKING $360 to win $300
--
Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $31,260
1% Bet Amount = $300
Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000
--
April ML Record (23-18) +$1,245
April RL Record (1-1) +$60
April O/U Record (4-3) +$255
April Parlay Record (0-1) -$300
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The Rockies seem prime today. Loaiza has only started 1 game so far this year. Coming in from the pen is a very different experience, and I'm surprised Torre made the move to swap him and Kuo in the first place. Loaiza's arm strength has to have deteriorated since his last start on the 7th. He's only pitched 10 innings in three relief appearances in just about 3 weeks. Combine that with the fact that Loaiza has fallen off the horse since his all-star season in 2003, and I think expecting him to toss a quality start today is asking way too much. Dodgers went 0-4 in his four starts at Dodger stadium last year. Dodgers have been worse at the plate during the day historically, and their success against LHP isn't a returning trend from last year. Nomar is out for good it seems, which means more young Dewitt.
Francis has had a rough start to the season, but he has never seen his team lose 4 of his starts in a single month in his entire career. (110 starts) He'll be facing that challenge today. Francis was very good during the day in 2007, with a record of 8-0. Dodgers 1st inning rampage last night will definitely sparks some weekend bettors interest. However, the only guy to get 2 hits in the game was Brad Penny. I can't fathom why this line is essentially a pick'em, but I won't think twice on this game. Rockies have become a team that expects to win, and avoiding a divisional sweep seems like an occasion they'd rise to. Rockies have started out 3-8 against the NL West (1-5 against Arizona) so far this year after going 45-30 against the NL West last year. If they have a chance of righting their ship, it has to be with their ace on the mound against what has become essentially a spot starter.
I'm also on the Rangers, as just another fade of Livan Hernandez, and in Texas of all places. Stubborn I know, I'm 0-3 fading him so far, but put him in Arlington and combine that with the fact that he's given up 4 homers in his last two starts, and things could get ugly. I'm not ready to give up on him yet, because I know that when I do he'll start getting shelled. I want to be there when it happens. Now Livan has seen his team win 6 games in a row in his starts 3 times over the past three years, but never 7 games. That means that if he wins this game, I'll be betting the house on him to NOT make career history. He's not at his biggest, but he is at his oldest. However, I honestly hope it doesn't come to that, and I don't think it will. Twins won yesterday thanks to a horrid showing by the Rangers pen and 3 errors which lead to 5 unearned runs. Ironically, the last and only time the Twins scored 10+ runs this year, Livan shutout the Royals 5-0 on the road. I'm not sure if Gomez is out still tomorrow, but if he isn't, he likely won't be testing his hamstring or calf or whatever the hell he injured.
Padilla has struggled (esp. in his last outing), which kept the line around -120 at opening I think. Sharps seem to pound it quickly to -135 offshores. Rangers are 4-1 in Padilla's last 5 home starts, the one loss coming in the only home start he's had of his 5 so far this year. Texas' offense is usually money at home, but they haven't had the pitching yet this season to keep them in games. Please let today be the day. At home they've only given up 7 HRs in 10 games. That's tied for best in the AL w/ Chicago. Runline seems very tempting, but I won't get greedy against Livan just yet. Good Luck. :th:
APRIL 27th
COLORADO ROCKIES -105
*RISKING $315 to win $300
TEXAS RANGERS -120
*RISKING $360 to win $300
--
Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $31,260
1% Bet Amount = $300
Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000
--
April ML Record (23-18) +$1,245
April RL Record (1-1) +$60
April O/U Record (4-3) +$255
April Parlay Record (0-1) -$300
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