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Ok guys its Sunday, one of my favorite days for bases. Why? Well almost all the games are day games. This means people usually make bets w/o doing much research. A very good day to fade what are "popular" picks. So far I've got five that are just that. I haven't locked anything in yet, but when I do I'll post it below. I more than likely will play 2-3 of these today. I know I'm trying to cut down on the plays, but since none of them are big favs, I can live with making 3 plays.
**I just updated the bullpen fade list on the sticky. A $100 bettor would have made $640 fading the four teams on the list this past week... if this keeps up, I very well might start blind betting this list to some degree on the side.
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Three hot teams that aren't getting much love on the road today all between +120 to +130...
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Athletics are playing great ball right now. They have scored 35 runs in the past 6 games with only hitting 1 homerun. A 3 run shot by Bobby Crosby last night. This lack of the long ball is very unpopular with the public, but from a betting perspective, teams that don't have to rely on the long ball are cash money.
FLORIDA MARLINS
My least favorite of the three, as the Marlins have a minor leaguer going today. Badenhop had a good spring, but the guy only has one pitch, his sinker. While it's good enough to get ground balls, hitters will eventually just sit on it. However, he might get by in his first start. Astros are on the DNB list due to their pen, and with the way the Marlins have been hitting, I like the plus money odds against Wandy who has become widely known as a sure thing at home and fade machine on the road.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
When will people learn, the Brewers just flat out hit lefties! Why do they continue to get plus money odds against them? Every game that goes by is one day closer to a break out game by the Prince, and the rest of the lineup is holding up right now. Jose Reyes is out until Tuesday, and without that spark at the top of the lineup, those 3,4, and 5 hitters for the Mets (Wright, Beltran, and Delgado) are just not as effective. Similar situation can be seen in Detroit w/o Granderson. Another neat fact, April is Suppan's best month in this career and is Perez's worst month.
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Another two games I like as small home favorites...
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Niemann was more effective this spring than Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel, but since those two are out of options, they started in the rotation. Based on how those two have done, I think this no name guy is a solid bet. Burres has been hammered by the Rays in the past, and off that close one last night, I think the Rays come out and get the new guy a win.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Just a fade on Liriano who is still holding on to that all-star stigma. While he might return to that all-star form, he's coming off tommy john surgery and has not been very impressive yet. He's got a 7+ ERA in his two minor starts and has had a lot of trouble with his control. Triple A coach said he wasn't ready, but Gardy doesn't have much of a choice right now. Very hard to come back from tommy john and be effective immediately. If only the Royals were making contact this bet would be a lot easier.
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Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $29,670
1% Bet Amount = $300
Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000
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April ML Record (11-9) -$255
April RL Record (1-1) +$60
April O/U Record (0-2) -$645
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**I just updated the bullpen fade list on the sticky. A $100 bettor would have made $640 fading the four teams on the list this past week... if this keeps up, I very well might start blind betting this list to some degree on the side.
--
Three hot teams that aren't getting much love on the road today all between +120 to +130...
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Athletics are playing great ball right now. They have scored 35 runs in the past 6 games with only hitting 1 homerun. A 3 run shot by Bobby Crosby last night. This lack of the long ball is very unpopular with the public, but from a betting perspective, teams that don't have to rely on the long ball are cash money.
FLORIDA MARLINS
My least favorite of the three, as the Marlins have a minor leaguer going today. Badenhop had a good spring, but the guy only has one pitch, his sinker. While it's good enough to get ground balls, hitters will eventually just sit on it. However, he might get by in his first start. Astros are on the DNB list due to their pen, and with the way the Marlins have been hitting, I like the plus money odds against Wandy who has become widely known as a sure thing at home and fade machine on the road.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
When will people learn, the Brewers just flat out hit lefties! Why do they continue to get plus money odds against them? Every game that goes by is one day closer to a break out game by the Prince, and the rest of the lineup is holding up right now. Jose Reyes is out until Tuesday, and without that spark at the top of the lineup, those 3,4, and 5 hitters for the Mets (Wright, Beltran, and Delgado) are just not as effective. Similar situation can be seen in Detroit w/o Granderson. Another neat fact, April is Suppan's best month in this career and is Perez's worst month.
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Another two games I like as small home favorites...
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Niemann was more effective this spring than Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel, but since those two are out of options, they started in the rotation. Based on how those two have done, I think this no name guy is a solid bet. Burres has been hammered by the Rays in the past, and off that close one last night, I think the Rays come out and get the new guy a win.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Just a fade on Liriano who is still holding on to that all-star stigma. While he might return to that all-star form, he's coming off tommy john surgery and has not been very impressive yet. He's got a 7+ ERA in his two minor starts and has had a lot of trouble with his control. Triple A coach said he wasn't ready, but Gardy doesn't have much of a choice right now. Very hard to come back from tommy john and be effective immediately. If only the Royals were making contact this bet would be a lot easier.
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Starting Bankroll = $30,000
Current Bankroll = $29,670
1% Bet Amount = $300
Bet Change @ $33,000 / $27,000
--
April ML Record (11-9) -$255
April RL Record (1-1) +$60
April O/U Record (0-2) -$645
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