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By: LT Profits Sports Group
We have always felt they bullpens have been undervalued when setting betting lines in baseball, and our three-year study on this subject helps confirm this, although the oddsmakers are starting to catch up. One could have blindly averaged nearly 100 units of profit the last three seasons by blindly betting top bullpens against those not in the top 10 in pen ERA, as long as the top pen was not heavy chalk.
We have always felt that if you only bet on quality bullpens, you should virtually always have winning seasons in Major League Baseball.
Bullpens the key to winning MLB handicapping
This is because baseball betting lines have always been based mostly on starting pitchers, while the bullpens have been undervalued. Well, we decided to go back and put out theory to the test over the last three years, and even we were pleasantly surprised with the results. It has almost gotten to the point that we could simply stop handicapping baseball altogether starting May 1 and strictly play the bullpen angle.
There is one factor holding us back from doing that however. While the results from last season were excellent by most standards, they actually showed the smallest profit of our three-year study. Thus, we could say that perhaps the oddsmakers have found their errors in their ways of the past, and that they are starting to incorporate bullpens into the lines a bit more adequately. The pens still look undervalued, just not as undervalued as they used to be. Thus, we would not recommend abandoning other baseball handicapping methods just yet, as they may take center stage again in the next few years.
For now though, we are confident that our bullpen angle will have another profitable angle this season. For starters, here are the results of simply betting on every team that is in the top 10 in the Major Leagues in bullpen ERA entering each day’s play for the last three seasons, from May 1 through the end of the regular season:
ALL Top 10 Pen ERA Teams (Starting 5/1)
Year W L Pct Units
2007 727 646 52.9% 40.20
2006 752 623 54.7% 67.52
2005 740 635 53.8% 59.84
So by doing absolutely no handicapping whatsoever, one could have picked up an average of +55.9 units per season the last three years by just betting on the top 10 bullpens from May 1 onward! This is certainly a nice starting point that will be greatly improved on with a couple of easy filters, which we are about to get into.
First of all, betting on every top 10 bullpen ERA team would mean making 10 MLB plays on days with full schedules when none of those top pens are facing each other. While having a high volume like that is good for sampling purposes, it is not optimal from a betting perspective, especially when the profit could be increased greatly while playing fewer plays with two very basic tighteners.
First of all, we would pass on any game when two top 10 bullpen teams face each other. We toyed with the idea of always taking the underdog in such circumstances, but the results were not to our liking. Secondly, while a top 10 bullpen team would be an automatic play as an underdog of any price vs. a non-top 10 pen team, when the top pen is favored, we found the best cut-off point to be only favorites of less than -130 (i.e., up to -129). Take a look at the three-year results now:
Top 10 Pen ERA vs. Non-Top 10 Pen ERA
As Dogs or as Favorites < -130 (Starting May 1)
Year W L Pct Units
2007 375 400 48.4% 76.24
2006 399 383 51.0% 112.08
2005 387 392 49.7% 104.70
We now have a strategy that could stand alone starting in May, although we will not go that route personally, continuing to use other methods also. The three-year average of +97.7 units in five months is certainly impressive, but as we said earlier, the distribution has us thinking the bookmakers are catching on. Now most people would be happy with 76.2 units, and we would certainly take it, but last season was a bit disappointing after two seasons over 100 units.
It is interesting that the winning percentages were under 50 percent in two of the years and a nondescript 51 percent the third year, but that is the beauty of playing primarily underdogs with a few small favorites sprinkled in.
Now obviously, this system does not kick in until May so that the bullpens can accumulate a full month of actual data, but it is always fun to project who the best bullpens in each league will be. We feel that the Toronto Blue Jays will have that honor in the American League, thus making them a nice sleeper future play in a division that has the Yankees and Red Sox, and that the San Diego Padres will lead the National League, making them our pick to win the West.
The Blue Jays finished second in bullpen ERA behind Boston in the American League last season, but they were without their projected closed BJ Ryan all year. He has progressed nicely this spring though, and he will make the Toronto pen virtually unhittable if he comes anywhere close to his old form.
As for the Padres, their bullpen is comprised of the all-time save leader Trevor Hoffman and a bunch of competent set-up men that all have differing styles, an approach that has made that pen very successful for several years now, leading the National League in bullpen ERA last season after finishing second in that category in 2006.
We have always felt they bullpens have been undervalued when setting betting lines in baseball, and our three-year study on this subject helps confirm this, although the oddsmakers are starting to catch up. One could have blindly averaged nearly 100 units of profit the last three seasons by blindly betting top bullpens against those not in the top 10 in pen ERA, as long as the top pen was not heavy chalk.
We have always felt that if you only bet on quality bullpens, you should virtually always have winning seasons in Major League Baseball.
Bullpens the key to winning MLB handicapping
This is because baseball betting lines have always been based mostly on starting pitchers, while the bullpens have been undervalued. Well, we decided to go back and put out theory to the test over the last three years, and even we were pleasantly surprised with the results. It has almost gotten to the point that we could simply stop handicapping baseball altogether starting May 1 and strictly play the bullpen angle.
There is one factor holding us back from doing that however. While the results from last season were excellent by most standards, they actually showed the smallest profit of our three-year study. Thus, we could say that perhaps the oddsmakers have found their errors in their ways of the past, and that they are starting to incorporate bullpens into the lines a bit more adequately. The pens still look undervalued, just not as undervalued as they used to be. Thus, we would not recommend abandoning other baseball handicapping methods just yet, as they may take center stage again in the next few years.
For now though, we are confident that our bullpen angle will have another profitable angle this season. For starters, here are the results of simply betting on every team that is in the top 10 in the Major Leagues in bullpen ERA entering each day’s play for the last three seasons, from May 1 through the end of the regular season:
ALL Top 10 Pen ERA Teams (Starting 5/1)
Year W L Pct Units
2007 727 646 52.9% 40.20
2006 752 623 54.7% 67.52
2005 740 635 53.8% 59.84
So by doing absolutely no handicapping whatsoever, one could have picked up an average of +55.9 units per season the last three years by just betting on the top 10 bullpens from May 1 onward! This is certainly a nice starting point that will be greatly improved on with a couple of easy filters, which we are about to get into.
First of all, betting on every top 10 bullpen ERA team would mean making 10 MLB plays on days with full schedules when none of those top pens are facing each other. While having a high volume like that is good for sampling purposes, it is not optimal from a betting perspective, especially when the profit could be increased greatly while playing fewer plays with two very basic tighteners.
First of all, we would pass on any game when two top 10 bullpen teams face each other. We toyed with the idea of always taking the underdog in such circumstances, but the results were not to our liking. Secondly, while a top 10 bullpen team would be an automatic play as an underdog of any price vs. a non-top 10 pen team, when the top pen is favored, we found the best cut-off point to be only favorites of less than -130 (i.e., up to -129). Take a look at the three-year results now:
Top 10 Pen ERA vs. Non-Top 10 Pen ERA
As Dogs or as Favorites < -130 (Starting May 1)
Year W L Pct Units
2007 375 400 48.4% 76.24
2006 399 383 51.0% 112.08
2005 387 392 49.7% 104.70
We now have a strategy that could stand alone starting in May, although we will not go that route personally, continuing to use other methods also. The three-year average of +97.7 units in five months is certainly impressive, but as we said earlier, the distribution has us thinking the bookmakers are catching on. Now most people would be happy with 76.2 units, and we would certainly take it, but last season was a bit disappointing after two seasons over 100 units.
It is interesting that the winning percentages were under 50 percent in two of the years and a nondescript 51 percent the third year, but that is the beauty of playing primarily underdogs with a few small favorites sprinkled in.
Now obviously, this system does not kick in until May so that the bullpens can accumulate a full month of actual data, but it is always fun to project who the best bullpens in each league will be. We feel that the Toronto Blue Jays will have that honor in the American League, thus making them a nice sleeper future play in a division that has the Yankees and Red Sox, and that the San Diego Padres will lead the National League, making them our pick to win the West.
The Blue Jays finished second in bullpen ERA behind Boston in the American League last season, but they were without their projected closed BJ Ryan all year. He has progressed nicely this spring though, and he will make the Toronto pen virtually unhittable if he comes anywhere close to his old form.
As for the Padres, their bullpen is comprised of the all-time save leader Trevor Hoffman and a bunch of competent set-up men that all have differing styles, an approach that has made that pen very successful for several years now, leading the National League in bullpen ERA last season after finishing second in that category in 2006.
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