Fantasy Baseball Sleepers-Picks

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Talk about your horrible defence....I can't believe the Jays are leaning at starting Shannon Stewart in left instead of Reed Johnson this year....he's going to be a nightmare out there, and Johnson was gold glove caliber. Just for an extra 10-15 points of BA. Dumb.

[NittanyLions94]

I know he's DH'ing this year but he played 56 games in the OF last year and Dunn plays nearly every game in the OF. Dunn gives up more runs than any position player on Earth. So he drives in 100 runs, he also probably gives back 30 to 40 runs with his horrendous defense. Are you like a Moneyball, Billy Beane type guy Nitts? OBP and HR's are that matter?

Jack Cust struck out 164 times in 385 at bats (or thereabouts). That's ridiculous. He's a home run, a walk, or a rally killer. Not my type of player personally, and to boot he's incapable of playing any position on defense and a steroid abuser.... Simply not a fan.

I just prefer to use stats that actually matter and can tell me if a player is useful or not. Batting average not being one of them. And what is the difference if a guy strikes out, grounds out, or pops out? I'd love to know.

[CuseFan10]

I just prefer to use stats that actually matter and can tell me if a player is useful or not. Batting average not being one of them. And what is the difference if a guy strikes out, grounds out, or pops out? I'd love to know.

Not sure I like your tone, haha j/k... If you have to ask that question than I've already won this "argument". I'm not going to insult your baseball intelligence because we have a long history and I know you know your stuff, but In baseball there are things called 'productive outs', and a strikeout is most certainly not one of them. Like I said previously, nothing kills a rally quicker than a strikeout (other than a DP obviously). Yea, Dunn and Cust can have a .900+ OPS because they walk a bunch(btw let's see Cust do it for a full season - he hit like .093 in September when pitcher's adjusted), but with less than 2 outs they can't move a runner from second to third to saves their lives. Top that off with Adam 'Donkey' Dunn's absolutely inability to play even remotely helpful defense, and he's not a player I'd ever want on my baseball team. Reasonable minds can differ though, I understand.

:thumbs:

[NittanyLions94]

Not sure I like your tone, haha j/k... If you have to ask that question than I've already won this "argument". I'm not going to insult your baseball intelligence because we have a long history and I know you know your stuff, but In baseball there are things called 'productive outs', and a strikeout is most certainly not one of them. Like I said previously, nothing kills a rally quicker than a strikeout (other than a DP obviously). Yea, Dunn and Cust can have a .900+ OPS because they walk a bunch, but with less than 2 outs they can't move a runner from second to third to saves their lives. Top that off with Adam 'Donkey' Dunn's absolutely inability to play even remotely helpful defense and he's not a player I'd ever want o nmy baseball team. Reasonable minds can differ though, I understand.

:thumbs:

My baseball knowledge is just fine, and I will agree to disagree here I guess. A ground out can actually be less productive than a strikeout in many cases(especially for a slow runner like Dunn) because of the chances for a double play. With 2 strikes, do you really want Adam Dunn(or any power hitter) to be up there trying to slap the ball on the ground to "move a runner?" I doubt any intelligent baseball mind would be yelling at Adam, "Alright, 2-strike swing here Adam, move him over." It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. If a guy leads off the inning with a K it is the exact same as him flying out to the LF or grounding to the 2nd baseman. Sac flies are not something any team will rely on to score runs, either. No player has a high enough number of them in any season to make it worth while to try to fly out. And how does a strikeout kill a rally any quicker than a fly ball or a ground out? That line didn't make any sense. But, then again, I'm also a guy that doesn't support bunting players to 2nd base. Adam Dunn had one of the highest rc/27 of any player in the National League last year for chrissakes. But I guess we'd all rather have Juan Pierre. He doesn't strike out, but he has a horrible OBP. But hey, he'll put the ball in play and get out a bunch.
I guess it's an old school vs. new school thing.

[Silver & Black]

Seriously S & B!?!?!?!? According to what? That could be the most ridiculous statement ever written on this entire message board (unless you're assuming Pujols elbow sidelines him for months). :thumbs:

Cuse - this was done with tongue in cheek. I agree Sexson is a Dog, but his numbers will be better than last year. Flip side, I've seen and heard reports that the only way Pujols elbow gets better is with surgery and 8 month min down time. If the Redbirds are as bad as I believe they'll be, he could get shut down around the All Star break. And even if he does hang in there for the year, who's going to protect him in the Cardinal lineup Glaus.

Bottom line, I'll have to pass on taking Pujols.. I'll leave that risk for someone else to worry about.

[CuseFan10]

My baseball knowledge is just fine, and I will agree to disagree here I guess. A ground out can actually be less productive than a strikeout in many cases(especially for a slow runner like Dunn) because of the chances for a double play. With 2 strikes, do you really want Adam Dunn(or any power hitter) to be up there trying to slap the ball on the ground to "move a runner?" I doubt any intelligent baseball mind would be yelling at Adam, "Alright, 2-strike swing here Adam, move him over." It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. If a guy leads off the inning with a K it is the exact same as him flying out to the LF or grounding to the 2nd baseman. Sac flies are not something any team will rely on to score runs, either. No player has a high enough number of them in any season to make it worth while to try to fly out. And how does a strikeout kill a rally any quicker than a fly ball or a ground out? That line didn't make any sense. But, then again, I'm also a guy that doesn't support bunting players to 2nd base. Adam Dunn had one of the highest rc/27 of any player in the National League last year for chrissakes. But I guess we'd all rather have Juan Pierre. He doesn't strike out, but he has a horrible OBP. But hey, he'll put the ball in play and get out a bunch.
I guess it's an old school vs. new school thing.

Disagreement is fine, man. I don't agree with anything you are saying with regard to Dunn, not your general argument, and it's cool. Adam Dunn is not slow either for the record. He stole 19 bases one year and could easily steal 10-15 a year if he wanted to. It's also not an old school vs new school thing (I'm not old and neither are you), you just happened to pick out a player that I feel is pretty worthless in real life major baseball when you encompass his entire game. If I'm playing the Reds I'm begging for Dunn to be up there in a big spot instead of Griffey or Phillips or a guy like Votto eventually. 40 hr's a year and never more than 106 rbi's impleis to me that it's easier for my pitcher to beat him 8 times out of 10 then it is for him to beat me - especially in a big spot.


Oh and if he's so valuable in real life then why haven't the Reds exteneded his contract or resigned him yet? Because they are going to let him walk most likely because for all his attributes he has just as many faults and you don't pay a guy like that $80 for 5 years.
Anyway, best of luck!!! Nice usage of 'chrissakes' too haha :thumbs:

[CuseFan10]

Where's Stiffler when I need him? He LOOOOOVES Adam Dunn.... :laughing:

[NittanyLions94]

Adam Dunn had a higher rc/27 than the following awesome players that strike out less:

Manny Ramirez
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Beltran
Justin Morneau
Derek Lee
Victor Martinez

And I think those are all very good players, Manny being one of the best in the bigs.

RBI's tell you something about getting someone out? RBIs are a pretty arbitrary stat that is extremely dependent on the players around you. It is hard to gauge much from a player's RBI stats IMO. Unless ESPN has you feeling all warm and fuzzy with their "clutch" stats.

It is an old school vs. new school perspective. There are people that still cling to RBIs, batting average, and wins for pitchers are substantial statistical categories when there are dozens of better ways to evaluate a player.

[CuseFan10]

Adam Dunn had a higher rc/27 than the following awesome players that strike out less:

Manny Ramirez
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Beltran
Justin Morneau
Derek Lee
Victor Martinez

And I think those are all very good players, Manny being one of the best in the bigs.

RBI's tell you something about getting someone out? RBIs are a pretty arbitrary stat that is extremely dependent on the players around you. It is hard to gauge much from a player's RBI stats IMO. Unless ESPN has you feeling all warm and fuzzy with their "clutch" stats.

It is an old school vs. new school perspective. There are people that still cling to RBIs, batting average, and wins for pitchers are substantial statistical categories when there are dozens of better ways to evaluate a player.

You're missing my point still I think. rc/27 doesn't take into account good baseball plays such as giving yourself up to move a runner, or playing good defense, or things as such. It's a formula made up by Bill James (so yes, you are a MoneyBall guy).

For those that don't know rc/27 (simply, haha) is:

RC/27:

A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game.

A = H + BB + HB - CS - GDP
B = TB + .52 * (SB + SH + SF) + .26 * (BB + HB - IBB)
C = AB + BB + HB + SH + SF

RC = A * B / C
O = AB - H + CS + GDP + SH + SF
RC/27 = RC / O * 27

Very practical, eh? It's right up there with the QB Rating.

Anyway, you keep saying it's old school vs new school, and it's simply not. I'm not sure as to your baseball playing background, but there's more to being a good baseball player than stats and formulas is my point. I'm not saying what you are providing (via Bill James) isn't useful, but it's not the end all be all of a baseball player. Wins are a useless statistic I agree. RBI's and batting average are not though.

Again, ask the Reds why they haven't extended Adan Dunn's contracted yet and why he won't be playing there next season most likely?


PS What's Dunn's park adjusted rc/27 if you want to get critical? He plays one the 5 most hitter friendly park's in the entire major leagues too let's not forget.

:thumbs:

[NittanyLions94]

You're missing my point still I think. rc/27 doesn't take into account good baseball plays such as giving yourself up to move a runner, or playing good defense, or things as such. It's a formula made up by Bill James (so yes, you are a MoneyBall guy).

For those that don't know rc/27 (simply, haha) is:

RC/27:

A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game.

A = H + BB + HB - CS - GDP
B = TB + .52 * (SB + SH + SF) + .26 * (BB + HB - IBB)
C = AB + BB + HB + SH + SF

RC = A * B / C
O = AB - H + CS + GDP + SH + SF
RC/27 = RC / O * 27

Very practical, eh? It's right up there with the QB Rating.

Anyway, you keep saying it's old school vs new school, and it's simply not. I'm not sure as to your baseball playing background, but there's more to being a good baseball player than stats and formulas is my point. I'm not saying what you are providing (via Bill James) isn't useful, but it's not the end all be all of a baseball player. Wins are a useless statistic I agree. RBI's and batting average are not though.

Again, ask the Reds why they haven't extended Adan Dunn's contracted yet and why he won't be playing there next season most likely?


PS What's Dunn's park adjusted rc/27 if you want to get critical? He plays one the 5 most hitter friendly park's in the entire major leagues too let's not forget.

:thumbs:

His park adjusted OPS+ was 136 last year. And Adam Dunn is not one of the players I'd be hoping will "move the runner" when he goes up to bat.

I'm not sure as to your baseball playing background

I played baseball through college and then had to stop due to a knee injury.

[CuseFan10]

I played baseball through college and then had to stop due to a knee injury.

Ha, small world, me too. Never recovered from a torn meniscus, dislocated kneecap and other problems from an outfield collision in an intrasquad game. Stupid RF'er shoulda never even been on the team. Ha.

[FlyersFan]

Nitts- please don't tell me about Adam Dunn and what he does or doesn't do. I am a life long die hard REDS fan. He is one of the worst clutch hitters of all time. He went over FIVE HUNDERED A/B's 2 years ago without a SacFly. That is almost impossible. He hits 80% of his HR's in garbage time. He had one of the worst BA's on the REDS with RISP last year and every freeking year. Even the REDS announcers will acknowledge that. They tried to trade him at the deadline and couldn't get much of anything for him. Marty Brennamen who i am sure you've heard of said during a REDS broadcast last summer pretty much the same thing. Every one who knows a thing about the REDS knows that and that is why the guy takes so much heat in Cincy. He just rarely delivers when you need him to. 2 years ago when the REDS folded post August 1st....he batted fking .130.....he had like 5 homers in the last 2 months and they were all garbage shots. Solo shot in the 9th vs. the Pirates to make it 7-1.....3 run blast vs. the Astros to make it like 13-2 REDS.......and yes, he is horrible in the field. They tried him at 1B and he couldn't field that position either. He is a great fantasy player and a freeking sore spot in real baseball for a lot of REDS fans.

[CuseFan10]

Nitts- please don't tell me about Adam Dunn and what he does or doesn't do. I am a life long die hard REDS fan. He is one of the worst clutch hitters of all time. He went over FIVE HUNDERED A/B's 2 years ago without a SacFly. That is almost impossible. He hits 80% of his HR's in garbage time. He had one of the worst BA's on the REDS with RISP last year and every freeking year.

Yea but his rc/27 is better than Manny's!! I can't believe that argument was even made still, haha... Adam Dunn can't shine Manny Ramirez's cleats, nevermind trying to tell me that in any way, he's a better baseball player.

(Same applies Grady Sizemore and every guy on that list - a few of whom were injured last year I might add).

[NittanyLions94]

Yea but his rc/27 is better than Manny's!! I can't believe that argument was even made still, haha...

Kinda like the argument, "I'm a fan of the team so I obviously know more about the player than you!"?

[FlyersFan]

Kinda like the argument, "I'm a fan of the team so I obviously know more about the player than you!"?

i think that was hardly my agrument......

stat geeks kill me. you guys love to analyze somebody's R11J1220 Melligman Report statistics. Ummm...Adam Dunn has a 2400.02 R11J200 and also has a 133 K122RCJW. That makes him the man.....:laughing:.......but in reality the guy went over a full season with no sac flys, has one of the worst BA's with RISP ofthe REDS key palyers especially with runners in key situations and hits garbage shot after garbage shot. REDS were in first place 2 years ago going into a west coast road trip on AUG 1st and he proceeded to bat .188 in August and .157 in September with couple of nice garbage shots over the last month. He came up time after time in big games and didn't produce during those 2 months. Same thing happened throughout most of last year, especially when they were fading in July. He is not a pressure player.

And yes Nitts, i usually listen to the Reds games in my office as i am wrapping stuff up. so i do follow the guy's every AB and situational statistics, not to mention i have had him on my fantasy team the last 2 years and cringe when he leaves guys on base all the time.

RISP:

2002 .208
2003 .170
2004 .239
2005 .231
2006 .221
2007 .241

that is for the guy that you pay to drive in runs. that's what he is paid to do, drive in runs when it counts. not hit a solo shot off some career 7.89 ERA mop up guy who won't be in the leauge 3 weeks from now when the Reds are trailing 12-1 in the 9th innning. That has been the knock on him for his entire career in Cincy and probably draws the ire of about 5 post game callers about every night during the season. I mean, i guess we are all ignorant baseball people.

Really, the only time that the REDS have been in a pennant race was when they had the lead on August 1st in 2006, and then last July when they were trying to get back into things. Check out his average and production for those 2 periods. He came on great towards the end of last year......Reds were out of it by then unfortunately.


But heck, his R2D2 is good so he must be the man. but what do i know...:dunno:........just a dumb Reds fan who quit playing baseball after HS who made the dumbest comment ever on predictem.


This is honestly the reason i usually never even enter into baseball discussions. More so than any other sport, stat geeks dominate the discussion landscape. People want to ignore what they see and read a bunch of statistics off a page. This from a sport where if you give up 2 singles, get 2 outs, then a guy (or even funnier when it's the pitcher himself) makes an error and you proceed to give up 9 straight hits after that.....you're ERA for the inning is 0....:thumbs:.....stats lie. You end up having discussions based on mathematical forumlas that some dungeons and dragons guy created rather than what goes on and what you see. I mean you don't hear comparisons for Kobe and Lebron saying "well his BartMasterman Index is 221.07 and Kobe's is only 219.08 not to mention his lieberman conditional number is 8.2 while Kobe's is 7.2 so he has to be better".

Im done.....whatever, Adam Dunn is the man. Im stupid.

GL! to everyone in their fantasy stuff this year.