My Quest to hit $15000 for the season, need $750

[CuseFan10]

GL2U2 Sham! Like I said, I meant nothing personally towards you, was just pointing out the creedence to record versus units won or unit size. :thumbs:

[Shamrock]

I completely understand!

Its hard to look at my record, see two sub .500 records, see positive units and not think i just bumped up some plays to dig out.

I see where you guys are coming from. I just know that I didnt do that but.........

I;m going to get to 25-10 in CFB just for you HD!!!!

Sham.......

[homedawg]

In fact, i dont see any value at all in flat betting throught a season. If i flat bet CFB and NFL up until this point, as you can see below, i'd be in the red.

.

I didn't state throughout the season! If you made 5 unit plays last weekend, you flat betted.

If you go in with a 5 unit play, keep them all 5 unit plays!

If you make 1 10 unit play and lose it, and 9 1unit plays and go 9-0, how much money did you make???? 0

GL :beerbang:

[Shamrock]

I'm picking up what you're throwin' down.........

Sham.....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I think stating units, especially in bases is VERY important. Someone could bet all Yankee, Red Sox and other fav lines all year, and be 50-36, but actually be down units, while a dog player could be 36-50 an be up units. Units are a MUST in bases and pucks, and I would never follow anyone that didn't post them.

Also...the unit thing...I've NEVER understood why people consistantly make 10/20/30 unit plays (rare here, but popular on other forums). I mean why can't your 10 Unit play be 1, 20 be 2 and 30 be 3?? Your unit is probably 100 bucks anyway, but I think some people think calling 100 bucks "10 units" instead of 1 seems more hard core. Doesn't make sense to me.


"He got banned cause he's a lying useless ****"

LMAO.
Rest in peace, Tom Hallday....Rest in peace.

:beer2:

[homedawg]

JML, I agree on bases, that is why I post the variance to ml over the total plays...

You by the way are a perfect example to my reasoning for flat betting! :thumbs:

you went 7-1 last weekend in the nfl! Nice work!

However you had a 6unit play that didn't cash, and the rest of the early games were 4 unit plays... then you came back with 2 unit plays, and closed on mnf with a 2 unit play..

How much more could you have won, if you flat betted all the games at 6 units????

:thumbs:


I will flat bet, but I may increase my wagers, only when I am bettin' with the books money! :beer2:

[CuseFan10]

I myself am a reformed flat bettor. Used to bet more haphazardly and now mostly only bet 1 unit, maybe a couple times a week will make a two unit play. If (and hopefully when) I get to +20 units, then I'll bump them all up to 2 unit plays most likely, but not definitely. I think I made one four unit bet all season on a tease. no three units plays and about 10-12 two units plays I'd guess.

JML is COMPLETELY right about these guys with their 10 unit bets and over. It makes me laugh (except Corey cause I think I' know how he does his cause I asked him once in one of our hockey leagues).

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

You by the way are a perfect example to my reasoning for flat betting! :thumbs:

you went 7-1 last weekend in the nfl! Nice work!

However you had a 6unit play that didn't cash, and the rest of the early games were 4 unit plays... then you came back with 2 unit plays, and closed on mnf with a 2 unit play..

How much more could you have won, if you flat betted all the games at 6 units????

You are right. And I used to be bad about that...making one huge play, and a bunch of smaller ones. I have gotten better with that over the years...usually flat betting, and only sometimes making a "slightly" larger wager on my card. But I agree with you that flat betting is the way to go, and I have learned that (to some degree) over the years, from guys like you.

As for last week...actually the 6 unit play was a push, and the 2 unit wins were mostly late add-ons and tails...but you are right, I shoulda flat bet, and will likely stick to that from now on!!

Thanks HD :thumbs:

[Horfin]

I agree somewhat with you guys about the record being more important than the units, but not in baseball and hockey. Half of the battle in Hockey and MLB is finding value in a dog. Certain players like myself had a losing record in MLB and picked up over 18 units in MLB. Not once did I chase, at two points in the season I increased the unit size (and my wife was happy). The same would be true in the NFL, if you played ML only you could easily have a losing record but win money without ever chasing.

Horfin

[DevilsAdvokt]

in college football my goal every year is to pick 60% or better
all my plays ATS or ML are always 1 unit
unless i play a ridiculous line than i will be less example the standford game where i bet
.01 units to win 1 unit

only time i go over my 1 unit bet is on teasers and/or parlays....

sticking with the same bet every week in long run prevents big loses on losing weeks but if i can get my 60% or better than i made bank for the year...

as far as baseball goes i stay away 162 games is pace setting for alot of big winning and losing swings in a season... if i get a bigger bank roll ill jump into it for future...

[Stifler's Mom]

A record along with the units tells the whole story.

Units IMO are vital if you're betting ML's (especially bases and hockey). I probably had more losses than wins in bases this year, but finished the reg season at +45 units....flat betting 2 units per play....cause I play like 80% dogs.

Raising units can be either chasing, or confidence. I'd be lying if I didn't like some plays more than others, and though I normally flat bet everything, I do occasionally raise 1 unit on the play or plays I like more.....which certainly isn't chasing in any way, shape, or form.

I do agree though that if you make a pile of 1 unit plays, then toss a 10 or 20 unit play out there, that isn't helpful to anyone, including yourself, and is more than likely a chase.

I must however, disagree about every wager having the same chance at winning. If you have a favorable line, for whatever reason, you have a better chance at winning than if you play a more accurate line, or one that is against you.

To use a bogus example:

If i can get NE +7 against Miami this Sunday, I think it's safe to say NE +7 has a better chance of hitting than Miami -7.

Like I said, that example is obviously extreme, but I think it shows my point that all lines are not created equal, and not all lines/plays have the same chance of hitting.

Trick is to know which lines are more in your favor (which sure as hell isn't always easy)....which is the entire basis behind my handicapping style to begin with. I just try to exploit what I think are bad lines, and all I ask is a line in my favor, and I'll make money (dogs that should either be favored or smaller dogs because the pub will play the fave at any price, faves that should be favored by more than they are because the public loves the dog, unders where the total is set way too high because of 2 teams being known for offense, etc).

Back to the point though.....if you're 10-34, but +30 units, you're a chaser (and you're lucky)....which is why I think both a record and units are important when posted together.

Just my 2 cents

[homedawg]

if you have team A & team B, and the result is going to end up with, team A or team B winning.

you then have 2 possible outcomes, which results in a 50/50 chance of winning.

dont matter if team A is 10 times better than team B, and team A could beat team B, 10 times in a row..

you still have the same odds (50%), knowing that there are only 2 possible outcomes!


you won 45 units betting 80% dogs!

Makes sense to me!

if you have team A +$$$ against team B, you have a 50/50 chance of winning!

when you add team C +$$$ against team D, you have 50/50 chance of winning that game too!

But when the payout is +$$$ on both games, and there are only 3 possible outcomes, you have increased your chances of winning +$$$$$$:

0-2 -$$$
1-1 +$$$
2-0 +$$$


JMO :drunk:

[V3r1f13d]

I could of sworn that I read it was a rule on here. Units makes is more of a gray area so we can stay here, because no money is involved so it isn't necessarily "illegal".

Like how Escorts say an hour costs "3 roses", not that I have ever hired one but I know the terms. Ahhh....forget it, no one will believe me anyways.

1 Unit for me equals a chocolate chip cookie. My local likes cookies. :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

I understand what you're saying HD, and theoretically you're right....i mean if you flip a coin it has a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails, and anyone can win/cover any certain day.

In practical use though, there's no way every team has a 50/50 shot at winning/covering.

But we don't play every play on the board, do we?

Reason being because we feel some have a better chance at covering than others.

If i felt i was in a 50/50 situation at -110 odds, i'd never place another bet in my life....lol

[homedawg]

If i felt i was in a 50/50 situation at -110 odds, i'd never place another bet in my life....lol

but you do have a 50/50 situation, the key is to find better odds, or hit some dog ml's, or even a parlay.
what about mnf, 1 game on the board???
you can cap the hell out of that game and find a strong reason to bet a side, but when it comes down to betting it, you still have team A & team B, with 2 possible outcomes (unless its a push)... resulting in a 50% chance of winning...
if the odds were not a true 50/50, then why would the books need to add a vig?
(in roulette you bet/win 1/1 on red black even odd low high, but your odds are 47.37%)
anyone can come up with stats, trends, etc etc, to find a reason that the true odds are not 50/50, but I dont buy it! JMO
:drunk: