One Game MLB Play-In Discussion...Padres vs. Rockies

[Stifler's Mom]

I think you guys are getting the wrong impression of Josh Fogg. He's always been a streaky pitcher, and the guy has gone 3-0 (with 3 N/D) in his last 6 starts, and has only given up 11 ER in 33 2/3 innings in that stretch. 3.06 ERA. Not bad. Not bad at all. To say "he's due to get lit up" would be beyond moronic, and he's proven to be nothing but solid down the stretch for COL, so why would anyone want to fade him right now?

I also still (and always will) think it's a huge mistake to base a bet on a baseball game on a pitcher alone (for or against).

I challenge someone to please give me one reason to bet on SD today, especially considering they're a road fave, other than that "Jake Peavy rules and Josh Fogg sucks"

I assume they would be hard to come by, cause I ain't finding any.

COL should be favored today....

[CutEmDeep]

The only thing that worries me today is COL's bullpen.

Corpas and Fuentes have pitched the last two days meaining if they enter the game today it would be three days straight. Do you think this matters?

[Hoosier]

thanks Stif...

i agree with your analysis and i think it's way too easy sometimes to just simply bet on the better starting pitcher. while it probably is the single biggest factor you need to take into account, there are other things that you brought up and i would think COL has the advantage in nearly everything other than the starting pitcher tonight. i'm not sure of the numbers, but historically hasn't Peavy always sucked in the playoffs and/or pressure situations? someone else brought that up, and i was thinking the same thing.

Rox in the playoffs of bust!!!

[PhillyFan3]

Fogg might not be the greatest pitcher and Peavy is the best pitcher in the NL, but here's how I am looking at this game.....This San Diego lineup might be the worst lineup in the whole National League, they have relied on great starting and great relief pitching and now they are going to a hitters ball park and facing a team that hits the hell out of the ball.....Colorado has all the momentum coming into this game, winning something sick like 11 of 12, and the Rockies bullpen has been equally as tough lately with Corpas and Fuentes down the stretch....but for some reason today I think the Padres are gonna get just enough offense and enough of Peavy and the pen or at least I hope because as a Phillies fan I'd rather face a team with tough pitching that cant really hit then a team with good pitching and one of the best hitting lineups in the NL....

[Hoosier]

as a Philly fan you most definitely want the Pads to win. you wouldn't have to face Peavy until game 3 where as you'd have to face Francis game 1 with the Rockies. IMO Phils would beat the Pads but lose to the Rox in a 5 game series. the Rox and the Phils are almost mirrior images of each other except the Rox have better, deeper pitching.

interesting point you bring up about the Rox bp though...i think Corpas might be starting hit hit a wall as he's struggled a little of late. hopefully the Rox put up 14 runs and that won't become an issue :beerbang:

[homedawg]

I challenge someone to please give me one reason to bet on SD today, especially considering they're a road fave, other than that "Jake Peavy rules and Josh Fogg sucks"

I assume they would be hard to come by, cause I ain't finding any.

sdp has the better pen...:beerbang:

I'm on the under so far... still deciding whether to take sdp -140 or rox rl -135... should be close low scoring game. Except 1, every other game, either of these pitchers faced the opposing team, the total has gone under.. :beer2:

does anyone know who is behind the plate????

[PhillyFan3]

Hoosier...

I will be honest with you I think the Phillies would be alright if they faced the Rockies as well, Rockies are just as young of a team with no playoff experience and with Francis, the Phillies have hit him well, and with this Phillies lineup once they see a pitcher for the first time they usually struggle and then they make the adjustments and are able to hit the pitcher and I think seeing Morales and Jimenez it will give us an advantage, and for as much as everyone talks about our bullpen, JC Romero has been the best reliever in the National League, and Gordon and Myers were both clutch and if the Phillies could get 6 out of a starter each night, and Hamels, Kendrick, Lohse have been throwing well down the stretch and getting one of our betteer relievers in Ryan Madson back will only help....plus I feel with the Phillies lineup it doesnt matter who we face, because Howard, Rollins, and Utley are superb hitters and having guys who can get on superhot streaks like Rowand and Burrell and the platoon outfield(werth-victorino) I really think that we are the team to beat in the NL right now, they have great energy, a hungry team, no team cancers, a very very solid #1 pitcher......thats just my opinion on the Phillies vs Rocks if it came down to that.....

Now to today's game, it all depends on how Peavy pitches, if he can keep his team in the game early and shut down the Rockies, as long as they get a couple runs, their pitching should be able to hold them down, but the problem will continue to be their hitting and they havent been a great hitting team, I believe that they dont have one .300 hitter on their team, but we'll see tonight, I think I am going to go with the team with the better pitching tonight

[Hoosier]

i'll admit i'm pretty new to line movements and the like, i see the Rockies at +125 now should i wait until closer to game time in thought that the line will continue to rise? i know the public will probably jump on seeing the name Peavy. anyone with any suggestions?

[PhillyFan3]

wagerline right now has

60% on Rockies
68% on Pats for the football game tonight

[BoilerBacker]

Fogg is not a good pitcher, streaky or not. He is worse at home than on the road. I cannot see putting money on that guy. Guys bat .300 vs. him and he is a career 5.0 ERA. I hate faves but cannot see it any other way. His stats are even better than they should be when you consider how many times he gets to pitch vs. SD, SF and Arizona.

In the playoffs, starting pitching is more important than ever. Just my opinion.

GL :beerbang:

[Hoosier]

somebody hit the nail on the head when they said that this is a do or die game. if Fogg is struggling even at all, i'm pretty confident they'll yank him w/o hesitation in the 1st inning if need be, and put someone like Francis out there. in fact, i could see them trying to get Fogg through 3 or 4, and then putting in Francis the rest of the way. 1 game elimination is very unique and while i agree that sp is more important in games like these than ever, i also think you have to think outside the box a little, knowing that the Rox manager is going to do w/e he needs to get this win. i would venture to guess every arm the rockies have has told him they are available if need be.

[Personified]

I read this earlier today, and I would have to agree with everything Stiflersmom said. You cant go bet on a game because Peavy has a low era and fogg has a high era. Are you guys telling me you never seen a pitcher with a 7 era beat a pitcher with a 3 era, I have many times. I know this situation is different and not a meaningless season game, but I just feel Padres are in a choking position, Rockies at home, no pressure, crowd behind them, a half decent pitcher, a great offense, Padres lack of offense plus you get the hotter team as a dog. A great pitcher can only do so much, in the end, you need some runs to win.

[msl90]

i know everybody expected one hell of a game but this is unbelievable...i can't even imagine how high my emotions would be running if the Mets were playing in a game like this...

[CuseFan10]

i know everybody expected one hell of a game but this is unbelievable...i can't even imagine how high my emotions would be running if the Mets were playing in a game like this...

We'd be in Philly get harassing by Philly fans msl90! (or at leats I would be).

Glavine = :punch:

[msl90]

We'd be in Philly get harassing by Philly fans msl90! (or at leats I would be).

Glavine = :punch:

hehe that is a very valid point :bang: