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Forte the Pick in 155th Belmont, Archangelo the Longshot
Belmont Stakes (G1), Race 12, Belmont Park, Saturday, June 10, 2023
Purse $1.5 million, 1 ½ Miles, Dirt
2023 Belmont Stakes Picks
1. Forte
2. Angel of Empire
3. National Treasure
4. Arcangelo
2023 Belmont Stakes Analysis
Class, speed, guts, pace, and pedigree. That’s the way we’ll be making our picks for the 155th Belmont Stakes this year.
Forte (5/2) is the morning-line favorite, and he might even go off at his morning line odds, which would be decent value based on his resume. Scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to a minor foot problem he was the morning-like favorite in that race too. He hasn’t run since the Florida Derby on April 1, but he always seems to find a way to win.
Forte is the proven class of the Belmont field. He’s won five in a row and six of his seven lifetime starts, and his trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race three times. Surely Pletcher will have this horse fit enough off the layoff. We don’t normally pick or play the favorites in these big races because they’re generally over bet, but in this case, there are a few other horses in here that could take money and boost the price on the favorite.
The two horses most likely to take money away from the favorite are Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Angel of Empire (7/2) and Preakness Stakes winner National Treasure (5-1).
Angel Empire won the Risen Star Stakes and Arkansas Derby prior to his Kentucky Derby run and he was flying into the hot Derby pace late. He’ll get blinkers on today for trainer Brad Cox, who wins at a 30% rate with such a move. Angel of Empire has the top Beyer Speed Figure of 104 going into the Belmont Stakes, and he’ll get bet on that alone. He probably needs a little pace to run into, but he shouldn’t be as far back this time with blinkers on. He’s the speed figure play.
The pace play is National Treasure, who got a dream trip on the front end setting a slow pace in the Preakness but fought gamely through the stretch to hold on for the win. There doesn’t appear to be much speed in the Belmont on paper and National Treasure may also be able to press and pounce, but that remains to be seen. If he opens a clear lead early and slows down the pace as he did in the Preakness, he has a shot to win, but 1 ½-miles is a long way.
The pedigree play, who also happens to have some guts is recent Peter Pan Stakes winner Archangelo (8-1), who showed good courage coming back to win the Peter Pan after appearing to be put away in the drive, and his female family includes Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil. The only reason we didn’t rate him higher is because his relatively unknown trainer Jena Antonucci is up against some superstars here.
And if you’re looking for a longshot lunch pail closer include Red Route One (15-1). He always tries and if there’s a complete pace meltdown, he’ll come flying late.
Good luck!
Belmont Stakes (G1), Race 12, Belmont Park, Saturday, June 10, 2023
Purse $1.5 million, 1 ½ Miles, Dirt
2023 Belmont Stakes Picks
1. Forte
2. Angel of Empire
3. National Treasure
4. Arcangelo
2023 Belmont Stakes Analysis
Class, speed, guts, pace, and pedigree. That’s the way we’ll be making our picks for the 155th Belmont Stakes this year.
Forte (5/2) is the morning-line favorite, and he might even go off at his morning line odds, which would be decent value based on his resume. Scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to a minor foot problem he was the morning-like favorite in that race too. He hasn’t run since the Florida Derby on April 1, but he always seems to find a way to win.
Forte is the proven class of the Belmont field. He’s won five in a row and six of his seven lifetime starts, and his trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race three times. Surely Pletcher will have this horse fit enough off the layoff. We don’t normally pick or play the favorites in these big races because they’re generally over bet, but in this case, there are a few other horses in here that could take money and boost the price on the favorite.
The two horses most likely to take money away from the favorite are Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Angel of Empire (7/2) and Preakness Stakes winner National Treasure (5-1).
Angel Empire won the Risen Star Stakes and Arkansas Derby prior to his Kentucky Derby run and he was flying into the hot Derby pace late. He’ll get blinkers on today for trainer Brad Cox, who wins at a 30% rate with such a move. Angel of Empire has the top Beyer Speed Figure of 104 going into the Belmont Stakes, and he’ll get bet on that alone. He probably needs a little pace to run into, but he shouldn’t be as far back this time with blinkers on. He’s the speed figure play.
The pace play is National Treasure, who got a dream trip on the front end setting a slow pace in the Preakness but fought gamely through the stretch to hold on for the win. There doesn’t appear to be much speed in the Belmont on paper and National Treasure may also be able to press and pounce, but that remains to be seen. If he opens a clear lead early and slows down the pace as he did in the Preakness, he has a shot to win, but 1 ½-miles is a long way.
The pedigree play, who also happens to have some guts is recent Peter Pan Stakes winner Archangelo (8-1), who showed good courage coming back to win the Peter Pan after appearing to be put away in the drive, and his female family includes Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil. The only reason we didn’t rate him higher is because his relatively unknown trainer Jena Antonucci is up against some superstars here.
And if you’re looking for a longshot lunch pail closer include Red Route One (15-1). He always tries and if there’s a complete pace meltdown, he’ll come flying late.
Good luck!