Top 10 Derby horse

[BUNK MORELAND]

No biz like showbiz

is gonna be my Derby pick Birds. What do you think .. He gonna be the favorite though huh?

[birdsfan5]

He has a good shot at it. I think the odds will be wide open. I dont think you will see any horse under 4-1. As for my derby horse as of right now it would be Chelokee looks like he will get in on the $100,000 and I like his tactical speed and late kick. For the Derby I like to find a good stalker. Most of the time the front runners dont hold up and with 20 horses the deep closers have traffic problems.

[birdsfan5]

If you want free replays of the Derby Preps

Horse Racing and Breeding Information from The Blood-Horse

[NittanyLions94]

There is going to be a hot pace IMO in this one. I'm not sure any of the front runners will have a shot to go the distance if you ask me. Cowtown Cat, Nobiz, among others will have this thing at a blistering pace. Tiago and Circular Quay are closers that I feel will have a good shot to take it.


Much more capping to go but that's just one man's preliminary thoughts.

[birdsfan5]

Nittany IMO I dont see a real fast pace. I think it will be :46 and 1:11. I see Stormello, Xchanger(If he goes), Liquidity, Cobalt Blue, Sam P., Teuflesberg, and Cowtown Cat all trying for the lead, and all like to run :46 and 1:11. Here is what I have so far.

Tossing
Imawildandcrazyguy
Bwana Bull
Sedgefield
Sam P.
Cobalt Blue
Liquidity
Xchanger
Zanjero
Storm in May
Cowtown Cat
Tiago
Stormello
Curlin
Circular Quay

Still in it
Any Given Saturday
Hard Spun
Dominican
Chelokee(If he Makes it)
Great Hunter
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

I am heading down on Monday. I am going to be at the track in the morning
to watch the horses go out and walk the track and maybe see the last works before the Derby. If I see anything I will post it.

[birdsfan5]

Last 10 years
Year 1/2 3/4 winner 1/2 3/4

2006 :46.07 1:10.88 Barbaro 4 4
2005 :45.38 1:09.59 Giacomo 18 18
2004 :46.73 1:11.80 Smarty Jones 4 2
2003 :46.23 1:10.48 Funny Cide 3 3
2002 :47.04 1:11.75 War Emblem 1 1
2001 :44.86 1:09.25 Monarchos 13 10
2000 :45.99 1:09.99 Fusaichi Pegasus 13 11
1999 :47.88 1:12.52 Charismatic 7 7
1998 :45.75 1:10.62 Real Quiet 6 6
1997 :47.55 1:12.23 Silver Charm 4 3


Only 3 times in the last ten years has the winner been further than 7 at the 1/2, and those three races had a real hot pace.

[NittanyLions94]

Chelokee is passing on the race. This Derby is much harder than last year's to cap IMO. Missed the Tri by 1 place last year, had the 1-2-4 right in my part-wheel. Ended up hitting the tri in both the Belmont and Breeder's Cup though. This is a wide open field with so many that can win the thing that I'm trying to avoid laying the chalk with Curlin as much as possible. Curlin's stalking style could be beneficial to him though. Head Spun is another horse that I believe is a stalker as well. Zanjero is an immediate toss due to the fact that he has never had a 100 BRIS speed figure. Scat Daddy has Prado on him, and that dude is nothing but a winner so he gets an immediate look from me.

I think the splits will be similar to last year's race and maybe even a bit faster.

Again, just thoughts from one man and still a lot of work to do before next Saturday. But I never like a front-runner in the Derby, last year Sinister Minister was a horse I threw out right away and he proved why, running the first splits in 22 and 46, he fell apart down the stretch.

[birdsfan5]

Yup Nittany Chelokee is shipping back home. Hard Spun is a stalker and you may be able to get a good price on him. I am thinking maybe 10-1 to 15-1, if not for one bad race he would not have a loss. I hate that Circular Quay has had 8 weeks off that is a long time to come back and win the Derby. IMO Curlin will get bet hard and he has not been tested yet. I dont think he will hit the board, and that would make for some good payoffs.

[birdsfan5]

Wow did Hard Spun look great he worked 5 furlongs in 57.60 and looked like he was not even trying. When he came off the track he was not breathing hard at all, and his coat looked real good.:beerbang:

[NittanyLions94]

Got some tosses for ya Birds. Let's see if we're ont he same page:

Stormello
Teuflesberger
Bwana Bull
Cobalt Blue
Curlin(just because he will be such a heavy chalk)
Liquidity
Cowtown Cat


That's the tosses so far. And a little side note, Nobiz like Shobiz is owned by a PSU alum, so he has to get some love!

[birdsfan5]

Nittany I am with you on all of them. LMAO about Nobiz. I got to see Curlin up close today and he is a small little guy I dont know how he is going to take the big field.

[NittanyLions94]

Xchanger bowing out now too. That takes some speed off the front. It looks like a field full of stalkers to me as I keep going through things. I'm not sure how that's going to end up working out, but the fractions may not be as swift as I had anticipated. I think it will be a hot pace, but not neckbreaking speed as I had once though.

[birdsfan5]

Yup may be a soft pace. I think Hard Spun has enough speed to maybe pull off the War Emblem wire to wire if it is a soft pace. The more I look at this the more I fall in love with Hard Spun:beerbang:

[NittanyLions94]

Birds, you've already probably seen this but here's the PP's for the derby contenders:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2007/pps/free_derby_pps.pdf

[birdsfan5]

Thanks Nittany did not know they had them up yet:beerbang: Just taking a fast look Any Given Saturday, Hard Spun, and Street Sense all look to be ready to run a big race.