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It is unclear if this is a foul ball or not but I am going to throw it out there and let the refs decide. My question is would anyone care to share how they arrive at the decision to cap one game opposed to another and then what general strategy do they employ to cap that game. When I hear guys say what the score of the game they came up with was it blows my mind when they are spot on. I understand if people don't want to give out the secret recipe so any generalities would be great.
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A good place to start capping a game is when you see line movement and the public is on the opposite side.
Example: Team A opens at +7. The line is dropping to +4 and the public is on the -7. This is likely an indication of sharp action, however, it can't always be taken to heart because syndicates will unleash head fakes, which is them manipulating a line to get a better line.
More on this topic can be found here: http://www.predictem.com/betting/head-fakes.php
When it comes to football, I pay quite a bit of attention to teams with strong/weak offensive lines. The same could be said for bad secondaries, especially missing multiple starters, vs. good passing teams.
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