after all these years I cracked the code...

[beermantm]

I just figured out a way to never lose when betting sports. I have studied gambling and betting since before I turned 21 and now I have finally cracked the code of making a steady % on your money.

I'm not going to start sounding like I'm making a commercial. It just dawned on me though that a lot of the guys even on this forum, not unlike myself, that have been able to prove a small edge over time exists with sports.

The problem lies in a bankroll large enough to capitalize on such a small edge without exposing yourself to the risk of ruin is out of the grasp of ordinary people with such talents.

The percent of the edge you have directly effects your risk of ruin. With as little as a 1-2% edge I have now discovered a way to almost guarantee a profit on your money at almost 20%.

Forget the stock market and forget real estate because with this method if you have a 3-5% edge I'm not even sure the risk of ruin could apply. Well it still could but it applies to everything in life and this chance would be so far off that it would be considered by scientists to be virtually impossible. Like how this planet came about kind of chances.

This probably sounds like I'm crazy. Funny thing is it was something I've known about for a long time and decided to re-explore even though I dismissed it years ago. I just did my own tweaking of how it needed to be done.

It's not an easy way to riches though and takes unbelievable discipline. This system is for the gifted sports bettors with a clear over time edge.

[Kevin]

Don't leave us hangin'! Spill the beans!

I too figured out how to win but it's not (personally) sustainable long term and I wouldn't recommend it to anybody.

I hit a documented 61% with one pick per day (all sports combined) for a 2 year period. That's actually how I got my start with this stuff. I got noticed by a large company with the promise of big loot if I could continue to pick winners. The cost was more than the gain though.

I handicapped games for 18 hours a day. Part of this time included watching games while handicapping at the same time. It was EXTREMELY unhealthy. I went from a lean athletic 225 lbs to a lazy, fat, dominos pizza ordering tub of **** at over 300 lbs.

I neglected my relationship, stopped exercising, stayed up all kinds of f'd up hours, caught a slight case of anxiety, the weight gain worsened my already existing back problems, got sleep apnea and I'm sure there's more ugly things that I'm not remembering that could easily be added to that list. I do believe at one point I became addicted to gambling as well.

I think being online too long can shorten your attention span and give you ADHD like symptoms as well. My patience went downhill and if something couldn't happen at the speed of a click, it was too slow.

It's possible to win and make amazing loot doing this, but the cost surely outweighs the gain, in my case at least.

Keep it fun. It's real easy to lose what's truly important when your're dabbling in this ****.

[wsox08]

great post Kevin

[joepa66]

Do spill it Beer, er, not the beer but the system! :thumbs:

[V3r1f13d]

Yankees ML

You are all welcome.

[beermantm]

Well posting on a public forum wouldn't be to smart but I'll give you a him. We could do it together and its a spin on the old martingale system. I tweaked it and figured out a way around limits and bankroll issues. With an edge you just can't lose.

To make it clear I know how and why martingale fails. The goal was clear. Double your roll before you go broke. Repeat as many times before you inevitably bust.
this may require a team with discipline to pull off.

[Kevin]

I'm attracted to the martingale system as well, but after suffering an 0-11 saturday about 7 years ago, it became apparent to me that "anything can happen" lol.

[beermantm]

I'm attracted to the martingale system as well, but after suffering an 0-11 saturday about 7 years ago, it became apparent to me that "anything can happen" lol.

Lets say you are going to make 100 bets with a 53% edge. Your chances of going on a losing streak of 0-11 is 1.185%. Your chances of a 6 game losing streak is 43.185%. Your chances a a winning streak are just as good or better.

The martingale tweaked includes both direction of streaks and adjusting for an extra percentage. The simple fact you expect an edge of 53% on every play you make puts the wagering ever so slightly in your favor but doubling up isn't enough. The pitfall of just chasing your money to get back to even or just one unit ahead makes a failure rate a quicker route to get to but what if your starting roll was also growing at a rate just fast enough to let you outlast the smaller percentage of times you actually do go on those unlikely streaks.

This is a dangerous system but one that should more often than it fails given the slightest edge.

Also streaks happen in both directions. Win streaks should be taken advantage of by pressing you bet to the most likely number of wins that eclipses 50%. In this case of 100 wagers a streak of 5 in 100 bets should happen 71% of the time. a streak of 6 is less the 50% so stop pressing your bets at 5 w's. Streaks of 4 will happen 93% within 100 bets so riding a streak up to 4 bets is also okay and a bit safer. Anytime a streak is broken in either direction you should adjust down to the minimum. If you are riding a win streak and hit you goal of say 4 or 5 you should also adjust back down to the min and restart the series all over again.

There is much more I'm not saying but I'm giving you the gist. or twist. It works and the safeguard is having a bankroll big enough to guard against the unlikely long losing streaks.

Anytime you hit one win and play the streak you are essentially laying less money to win more because you use the books money against them on the next game.

Kick that win percentage to 55% and 0-11 drops down to .763% or less than 1% chance.

It takes a big roll but it works.:thumbs:

[beermantm]

If you are riding a win streak and hit you goal of say 4 or 5 you should also adjust back down to the min and restart the series all over again.


Correction: you should place only minimums until you've broken the win streak. Again even the minimum wagers should hold a slight advantage.

[eyeball]

The percentages don't lie but if you do not have a +Ev bet any system is doomed to fail.

:thumbs:

[beermantm]

The percentages don't lie but if you do not have a +Ev bet any system is doomed to fail.

:thumbs:

Well it will fail but it will fail most of the time after you have doubled or trippled or even quadrupled you bankroll. Failing is actually worked into the numbers. You could get extremely unlucky and run insanely bad two or more times in a row but it's so unlikely it would be almost impossible to happen.

The negative even will be balanced by overall win percentage.

[BuzzBomb]

Do you think online bookies would kick you out if they saw you doing the double up thing with success?