Better Line or Reduced juice.....which is more important?

[E VINCENT]

Have often debated this with many, and was wondering what all of your thoughts were on this.

Say for example:

Seton Hall +9.5 -110

or

Seton Hall +11 -125


Ive often heard that in NCAABB a 1/2 point is worth about 7 cents, so technically youd be getting a bargain on the -125, but the added juice in reality will kill you in the long run. Interested in some thoughts on this.

[Jerbeek]

Definetely worth it Seton Hall loses by 10 - LOL!

In my opinion I would play that at +9.5 -110. If you are playing at -125 your winning % needs to be much higher to show a profit. I sometimes will buy a half point on games were the line is close, for instance will buy down to -3, -2 or -1 on favorites and buy up to +2 or +3 on dogs.

[JB]

Agree with Jerbeek. If you like Seton Hall I would play it at +9.5 (-110) just because over the long haul the -125 is really going to kill you.

Now...if you think its a 10 point game then I would just not play it...but if you must then +11 (-125) does present some sort of value.

If you where in Vegas and wanted to go from +9.5 to +11 it would be -140...so -125 does present some sort of value....I guess.

[homedawg]

Reduced juice definitely! :thumbs: I would even take it at +9, if I could get even $$$ :beer2:

[Stifler's Mom]

Depends on the sport, if you ask me. In basketball, the pointspread matters far more often, and far more games fall closer to the number, than in football, especially college basketball.

I would personally rather have the reduced juice, and try to never lay more than -110 for any line.

Also, if you have different books, you can often get the best of both worlds. Quite often you can get a better than market line weather you like the fave or the dog, but especially on the dog....as some of the more "public" books out there will really post some silly lines to get some anti-public action. The trick is they don't have high limits, so they can get away with it, knowing they can't get out and out pounded on the anti-public side without a chance to adjust back to the market line. I know I've gotten lines already at the "public" book I use, that were as much as 3 points different from the other books' lines that I use, that have a wider variety of players and don't have to do as much begging for anti-public money to even things out.

I think the real answer to this question lies in the books themselves though. Most all books allow you to BUY points, for more juice....and often for way more juice than those points are realistically worth, while very few books allow you to SELL points for less juice.

That tells me they'd rather have you take the better pointspread, with more juice, than take a less favorable pointspread, and pay little or no juice for it, or even get a + payout on your money.

[rjp]

I haven't bulit any models for CBB, so I can't say for sure which is better.

But if we assume a half point is worth 7 cents (or meaning that the fair line would be -117), then it is worth 1.54%. (53.92% - 52.38%).

So if you assume +9.5 fair value is 52.38%, then the fair value is 52.38% + 1.54% x 3 = 57%. (This is assuming that buying onto the 10, 10.5, and then 11 is 3 half points).

The break even for -125 is 55.56%, so you look to have a favorable bet.

That said, this is a gross oversimplification, because as you move away from the true point spread the points become worth less and less.

So lets assume the first half point is 1.54%, the second 1.24%, and the third 1.04%. This means that buying from 9.5 to 11 is now: 52.38% + 1.54% + 1.24% + 1.04% = 56.2%.

By this math, you have just a very small edge against -125.

The other important thing is that the total affects the point spread value, so a game that has a high total will show that the points are worth less than a game that has a lower total.

[rjp]

Let me also add that in my experience with other sports that you aren't going to gain value by simply buying or selling points. Sports books overvalue points so that they hold more money when bettors use this strategy. So if a book will give you +11 -125 for 1.5 points over the +9.5 -110, then you have a bad bet.

[V3r1f13d]

Ya, it all depends on the sport.

It's common to have a juiced O/U in boxing, and I'll gladly pay for it as well. A half round is HUGE deal. Same with baesball O/U, a half run will decide a W/L a lot of times...

As far as Casketball, I have no clue, I don't play it.